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How 'bout that stock market?

Really? Company blows out quarter and ups guidance, sector upgrade and analyst's upgrade on a stock, M&A, take out target, FDA approvals, Stage III trial completions, 52 week highs, FDA warning, etc., etc. This is assuming fundamentals are sound or weak (short) and the news.

I did investor relations for companies for a number of years. I've see stocks look like a rocket or fall out of bed based on news.


Everyone has there own style, I have no problems waiting a few days for a trade to make money. That's why I went to the 4hr charts and left the 3min stuff behind.
 
Everyone has there own style, I have no problems waiting a few days for a trade to make money. That's why I went to the 4hr charts and left the 3min stuff behind.

I agree, everyone has their own style. Some people today made $75 a share on Google news. My point is that news moves the market.

On a side note, I thought it was interesting that the Google founders increased their net worth by TWO BILLION DOLLARS in the first hour after the announcement.:eek:
 
Those AAPL shares I had @ 148 are now gone @ 158.51. 10 Dollar gain....5K shares. Good start to the day. :smile:
 
Really? Company blows out quarter and ups guidance, sector upgrade and analyst's upgrade on a stock, M&A, take out target, FDA approvals, Stage III trial completions, 52 week highs, FDA warning, etc., etc. This is assuming fundamentals are sound or weak (short) and the news.

I did investor relations for companies for a number of years. I've see stocks look like a rocket or fall out of bed based on news.

My problem with it is it is an unkown quantity. That means its out of my control and I can't make an educated, reliable decision on it. Which means (to me at least) its gambling. Why not wait for the news release and then play the reaction?

Thats what I do around news releases in the indicies. You NEVER front run a report because history has proven to me that even if the report comes out exactly how you think it will, the market may not agree with you on the direction the equity or market should move. Beige Book on Tuesday this week was a PERFECT example. There were a boat load of traders who though it would come out and were already net short because it was going to be a negative report. It was. It was really bad in fact. What did we do? Rallied another 100 points.

Play what is quantifiable and you stand a much better chance of success. News reports are not quantifiable and are too much risk for me to game. (The exception to this is playing like straddle option plays, etc where both sides are hedged and you just need a big move in the market one way that a news report could produce).
 
My problem with it is it is an unkown quantity. That means its out of my control and I can't make an educated, reliable decision on it. Which means (to me at least) its gambling. Why not wait for the news release and then play the reaction?

Thats what I do around news releases in the indicies. You NEVER front run a report because history has proven to me that even if the report comes out exactly how you think it will, the market may not agree with you on the direction the equity or market should move. Beige Book on Tuesday this week was a PERFECT example. There were a boat load of traders who though it would come out and were already net short because it was going to be a negative report. It was. It was really bad in fact. What did we do? Rallied another 100 points.

Play what is quantifiable and you stand a much better chance of success. News reports are not quantifiable and are too much risk for me to game. (The exception to this is playing like straddle option plays, etc where both sides are hedged and you just need a big move in the market one way that a news report could produce).

I agree with you. I am not suggesting someone buy or short a stock based on a news release. I am suggesting you buy or sell a stock in which you have a position, or is on your watch list, etc. I think your strategy of being short versus the box and lifting a leg based on the news is an excellent one.

I agree as well that it's critical to understand the fundamentals of the company in order to understand the importance of the release. If not, that is gambling.
 
Here's how goog worked out

Options gains..3128.68
Stock gains....5619.71
Subtotal.......8748.39
Option losses..8766.56

Total P/L...-18.17

Not too bad when last night I thought I was going to lose ~1500

I am making a killing today trading options.
 
steven you are probably in the green with GS now, didn't even have to wait until summer. I've been trading GOOG and UYG, not sure if I'll keep them open over the weekend. There is a chance GOOG will not reach <500 for a long time.

Good news for my brother [19 years old freshman in community college] who bought some AAPL on the way down back in jan., I should give him a call. He's probably up as much as I am % wise, I think I got him to wait until it was in the 130's before he started buying incrementally.
 
Look at the percentage price change for the Amazon April 80 (QZQNDP)
+4.833.33
 
FSLR has been trending weak the past couple days. Over the weekend I'll lay out a strategy, but if the market gets soft early next week I'll probably short it if nothing else jumps out at me. I think it's good for a 10-15$ swing to the downside given today's performance, its fundamentals, and the negative response to SPWR's earnings [that were solid]. It's up less than 1% today.
 
WOOHOO I did very well shorting GOOG today several times in and out. Flat at the close.

I also rolled out a bunch of may calls at very good %'s.
 
I played a choppy short in the NQ this afternoon for a measly +4.5 Came a tick away from stopping out 3 different times... right up to my stop and didn't fill... LUCKY.

Ended up +500/per this week which I'm really stoked about. I traded tight, executed well, saw the entire picture, and played everything out as per my rules. Just gotta build that account up gradually and add size!

Have a great weekend everyone!
 
I played a choppy short in the NQ this afternoon for a measly +4.5 Came a tick away from stopping out 3 different times... right up to my stop and didn't fill... LUCKY.

Ended up +500/per this week which I'm really stoked about. I traded tight, executed well, saw the entire picture, and played everything out as per my rules. Just gotta build that account up gradually and add size!

Have a great weekend everyone!


The money will come, once you get good at this it's really how much you want. I am not flashy I just like looking at the stacks of it lol :)
 
The money will come, once you get good at this it's really how much you want. I am not flashy I just like looking at the stacks of it lol :)

Those are wise words. And you couldn't be more right. The guys I trade with in our Hotcomm room take what and how much they want everyday and thats that.

I'm up 262.5 on two ES trades. I'm calling it quits for the day. I traded solid this morning, two winning trades, great entries, management, and exits. Can't ask for more. Things are pretty freaking dead in the markets right now. I'm just gonna take the rest of the day to catch up on some homework (last finals EVER), take a bike ride, and play with the dog. Best of luck with the rest of the day gents! :biggrin:
 
EURO really up against the Dollar this am. Picked up 105 pips from 15885 to 15990. Now short at 15995. Falling to 15975 as I type : )

J~
 
I caught two really sweet shorts on FSLR this morning.:biggrin:

I caught a sweet little short in the Nasdaq 100 this morning for +6... Markets are losing a lot of their volatility lately. Seems like the best trades are offered up in the first hour and in the last hour for the time being.

Do you notice that trend in your equity trades? I've never followed equities intra-day... do they make good swings all the time or more often during certain times?
 
Just depends. Usually the first couple hours are the best but previously there was strong movements throughout the day.

Looking at IPI and GSI as some speculative buys. I still like both sectors medium/short term and the little I know about the firms is positive. Mostly just looking for a 15-20% gain then get out. IPI is over valued at 50 but if it drops down in to the 30's it'll be fairly valued. GSI has a ton of catalysts, mostly aquisitions, poised to lift the stock price. Management is conservatively aggressive.

GOOG is having a strong day, I bought a few shares after that rally cooled off. I'll be picking up UYG if it drops another dollar or two, can't remember what my limit order is set at.
 
I caught a sweet little short in the Nasdaq 100 this morning for +6... Markets are losing a lot of their volatility lately. Seems like the best trades are offered up in the first hour and in the last hour for the time being.

Do you notice that trend in your equity trades? I've never followed equities intra-day... do they make good swings all the time or more often during certain times?

Yes, the best quick trades are in the am. the best buy and holds are in the middle of the day.

Check ICO stock is ~9 bucks and the 10 dollar calls pay .65. that is a ~7% return and 20% if the shares sweep.
 
Just depends. Usually the first couple hours are the best but previously there was strong movements throughout the day.

Looking at IPI and GSI as some speculative buys. I still like both sectors medium/short term and the little I know about the firms is positive. Mostly just looking for a 15-20% gain then get out. IPI is over valued at 50 but if it drops down in to the 30's it'll be fairly valued. GSI has a ton of catalysts, mostly aquisitions, poised to lift the stock price. Management is conservatively aggressive.

GOOG is having a strong day, I bought a few shares after that rally cooled off. I'll be picking up UYG if it drops another dollar or two, can't remember what my limit order is set at.

I was trying to get some IPI yesterday and this morning before the market got a hold of it. 50 is way too much but with potash having it's run I doubt we will get IPI below 40.
 
Could be a $10k swing if the EURO falls back to where it should be which is 15900ish (maybe less). So far up $4,200. Anyone else trade ForEx? I use MACD/OsMA (40,50,100) (H1, H4) (today is a little unique as the EUR-USD is all over the place) Demo for 6 months, now live for 1 month. Ths is the first time I have followed this thread. Lemme know!
 
Could be a $10k swing if the EURO falls back to where it should be which is 15900ish (maybe less). So far up $4,200. Anyone else trade ForEx? I use MACD/OsMA (40,50,100) (H1, H4) (today is a little unique as the EUR-USD is all over the place) Demo for 6 months, now live for 1 month. Ths is the first time I have followed this thread. Lemme know!

I don't understand the forx thing so I don't trade currency. I have read a lot of info on it but for some reason it doesn't click with me.
 
Could be a $10k swing if the EURO falls back to where it should be which is 15900ish (maybe less). So far up $4,200. Anyone else trade ForEx? I use MACD/OsMA (40,50,100) (H1, H4) (today is a little unique as the EUR-USD is all over the place) Demo for 6 months, now live for 1 month. Ths is the first time I have followed this thread. Lemme know!

All I trade is Forex, 4hr stuff. Shoot me your info PM would love to have someone else to talk with about the market. You can look at some of my old posts on what the setup's I trade are. So far 12/13 and 360 points per contract ave.
 
I caught a sweet little short in the Nasdaq 100 this morning for +6... Markets are losing a lot of their volatility lately. Seems like the best trades are offered up in the first hour and in the last hour for the time being.

Do you notice that trend in your equity trades? I've never followed equities intra-day... do they make good swings all the time or more often during certain times?

Yep. Volatility tapers off after the open. Starts up again toward the close...but not as erratic as the open.
 
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