You haven't yet explained the fact that the belts being installed are likely as old as the cars we are putting them on. If time is the critical factor, surely Honda is making new belts as we speak and scrapping all the ones in the warehouse. Seem logical to you?
Let's put this to bed and agree to disagree. Your anecdotal evidence is no more fact based than my logic based conclusions. BTW, you can't compare hoses that are in constant contact with chemicals to a timing belt no more than the guy that wants to compare the belt to tires.
Long story short, I changed my belt because of the fear factor generated on this forum. I'm not sorry I did at all. I merely presented my findings upon completion of my replacement. You choose to think my belt was in emminent failure mode and I'm convinced it had many more RPM's in it. Certainly I'm better off for having changed it and I would recommend anyone else to do the same. It's only prudent to do so and the consequences, as we've heard, are great. It's very inexpensive insurance to be sure the engine is safe from this sort of failure. Case closed.
First, anecdotal evidence is absolutely evidence, that's why it's called evidence. It is fact-based in that the stories as a whole represent a piece of data. The accounts as a whole generally indicate that old belts do fail before the mileage limit suggesting that time is a factor in TB life.
Second, I did not state at any time that your belt was close to failure. I stated, as many others did, that you can't derive any accurate information from a visual inspection alone. My position is based on the structure of elastomeric devices which both the TB and cooling hoses are and also based on other well-respected NSX mechanics' reports of belts that visually appeared to be fine but were very old, had high mileage or were already broken.
And as far as the cooling hoses one could make the argument that although the cooling hoses contact chemicals they are not as highly stressed and critical as the timing belt. Six of one, half-dozen of another.
I already acknowledged that the time a belt spends sitting on a parts shelf may absolutely be a factor in its overall lifespan. But it's also possible that it isn't a factor and the time period only begins at the point it starts bearing a load and stress. A belt sitting on a shelf in under quite a bit less stress than one installed and exposed to the elements. You're putting forth this theory as if it were fact when in reality you have no idea and have offered no proof or evidence that supports it. None. You are merely assuming and that is unacceptable.
If the theory is true and shelf-age does impact the life of the belt it's an even greater incentive to change it on time. If it doesn't then just start the clock at installation. I'm not even sure what point you're trying to make. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't--I don't see the point and either way you have no evidence for either point of view. I'm completely confused.
And again, you are ignoring points that can't be disputed and that don't support your hypothesis. Why would Honda bother to set a maximum age for timing belts instead of just going by mileage? How can you explain the disproportionate amount of TB failures before the mileage limit when the belt is older than 7 years? These two facts strongly support the view that age does play a part in timing belt lifespan and cannot be explained away without acknowledging such.
I can't agree to disagree when you support a reckless, irresponsible and baseless position that one can derive any useful information about a timing belt by visual inspection while on the pulley alone and that time plays no role in a TB's lifespan. The majority of my evidence may be anecdotal but it is still much more basis than you have presented to support your assertion.
Logic-based conclusions aren't relevant since you're not providing evidence, examples or any contradicting fact either from an expert or published. Just because something is logical on one level doesn't make it true. I'm providing the examples of failures or older, lower-mileage TBs (published), pointing out that according to top mechanics and engineers one can't determine anything based on visual inspections (experts) and pointing out that Honda set an age limit for installed timing belts in the service manual (published).
