I see. I wish I could understand a bit better..
How 'bout that stock market?
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
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I see. I wish I could understand a bit better..
So funny you say that I too have not been getting much sleep lately either. I got crushed today on aapl shorting at 124.84 and covered it at 125.80. :frown: I jumped back in and had a few 1k trades made up most of the loss then I uncovered my MSFT and sold that off too. Just a few more postions to trim and then I will cicrle waiting for the kill.
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Visa's revenue is based on processing fees they charge to use their network. In a nutshell, less consumers swiping = less $$.
Mortgage defaults are skyrocketing. Credit Card defaults will soon follow.
Though the card issuing banks will take the brunt of the charge offs, the masses in fear of a recession will quit swiping their cards. Banks will lower credit limits and increase lending standards. The masses that default on their card agreement won't have cards. See where I'm going?
Amex will suffer from defaults. Visa and MC will suffer from decreased processing fees. And lawsuits.
Run.
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I'm glad Jan and Feb were so lucrative. Nice to know you can always sit back and let the dividends roll in.
Hope you guys playing the short side did not get hurt, I got long the US$ on several pairs and did very well 
I do have to say a close about 12k is pretty bullish but need to see what the rest of the week brings out.
I do have to say a close about 12k is pretty bullish but need to see what the rest of the week brings out.Yeah I am keeping all the dividen paying stocks and looking at picking up some of SFI when and if it gets hammered. Did you see how it bounced off 15ish?
Sorry man, I have to disagree. I think if you can get in on that deal then you should take it. From a value perspective, it is more attractive than Mastercard and and it dominates the space. There is also an obvious short supply of MA stock out there, so V can soak up some of that demand.
Visa's payment network is also much larger than MA, and in fact spans the globe. It isn't just the US making transactions on their visa cards, its every developed and emerging market - think global.
I'm not saying that a dip in US consumerism won't affect their earnings, because it will - just not as bad as what you may have calculated in your analysis. What I am saying is that their valuation is already better than Mastercard and when you throw a "good" value play out there who's genre is in short supply, has a lot of hype, and has momentum buyers chompin' at the bit, you get a winning stock.
Sure, this is a crap environment for them to go public into, but I'd be very surprised if this stock didn't bring leadership to the group.
Just my $0.02 :smile:
I'm fortunately net long (so today was nice), after this rally I'm pretty much delta neutral. Google was gettin' a little hairy for my bull put credit spread down at 370/360, so this short squeeze was a nice little boost... I'm going to ride these March puts out and just let theta and volatility kill these options prices this week.Hope you guys playing the short side did not get hurt, I got long the US$ on several pairs and did very well
I feel like this rally will continue into tomorrow (feel free to call me out if I'm wrong :biggrin: ). The futures are leading us slightly lower right now, but a down opening could give a lot of shorts the opportunity to cover. I sold a lot of volatility this cycle, so a few green days will be nice (just 'cause they tend to be less volatile).
Good luck out there!
What a ride. I made a dozen or so trades mid day and managed a down 5% to an up 6% by close. Doubled down on AAPL/CME/SLB/GOLD/KGC and a few financials when we got off the highs around noon and cut my QID/SKF holdings in half.
I'm actually out of town/on vacation and if a friend hadn't given me a call in the morning to ask me wth he should do I probably wouldn't even have checked the markets until well after lunch. Whew. This time last year I would have been crushed today but my current hedges seem fairly well setup. Should be a very fascinating week and futures are down slightly right now although historically there should be a couple days of moderate gains at least.
I'm actually out of town/on vacation and if a friend hadn't given me a call in the morning to ask me wth he should do I probably wouldn't even have checked the markets until well after lunch. Whew. This time last year I would have been crushed today but my current hedges seem fairly well setup. Should be a very fascinating week and futures are down slightly right now although historically there should be a couple days of moderate gains at least.
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Point(s) taken. I figured I would get some opposition regarding the global picture.
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SFI has gotten hammered. Off 50% in the last 4 months.
The C and NLY I bought are way back in the green, and NLY even raised their dividend by 20%. I can hear the pennies trickling in....:wink:
What's your take on TMA? Think its going belly up?
I remember seeing the div on that thing was above 100% or some crazy crap like that... LOL. I also tried to see if there were some cheap options on either side but nope. I don't know I think it might be too late for TMA but as a prue 1k lotto ticket it might be worth a shot. I am guessing 90% chance of going to ZERO.
are you buying?
LOL. Steve, you're just like me. I play $1K lotto tickets every month on some DOTM options in my personal account. I don't expect to win, but it keeps me interested while I monitor my boring OTM credit spreads. I've won a couple earnings plays (RIMM [calls], MOV [puts]) during the last 12 months but generally lose it all. The RIMM play made me a metric butt-load of points though, so it can actually pay off (probably not in the long run).
Anybody planning on playing the banks on the long side heading into OE?
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Also long C.
GS held up pretty well for a while. Short ETFs beat it down a little bit, but there was finally capitulation in the stock itself - at least that's what it looked like to me. It does look very nice at its August/Sept lows. I've been accumlating it in my IRA.
What are your feelings on the current Fed action? It seems to me that the banks can be big winners here. It almost feels like the Fed is setting us up for a rally. Step 1, get the crap paper off their balance sheets so they can lend and allow its market to start trading again. Step 2, hit 'em with another 50 bps cut to get people refinancing into good paper - utilizing that new liquidity. That would be very profitable for the banks, at least in the short run. I feel that housing has to turn though before we can get out of this mess. Any thoughts?
Ski_Banker
Suspended
The investment banks are far better positioned than commercial or retail banks. Not only do they not hold these shitty loans, but they can participate in future restructuring advisory and equity cap markets work.
That said, I still wouldn't buy any of 'em now. Not at all...
Also:
Dividends can, and will, be cut...
That said, I still wouldn't buy any of 'em now. Not at all...
Also:
Dividends can, and will, be cut...
Well well well. First day back in the ES. Its definatly a different animal. Got in on one trade today that went +7 in favor, came back and took me out at par, but did so on another trade against my position that I called out and wanted to take. Hindsight I should've stopped and reversed, but either way, I made two good calls on price direction and both were profitable. Ended up just having that one trade for a measly tick.
But in my FX duties I put on a short position in the eur/jpy off a 4hr chart from 158.71 that sitting about +70 as we speak. Targeting a BIG drop down to 156.43. We'll see how she goes!
But in my FX duties I put on a short position in the eur/jpy off a 4hr chart from 158.71 that sitting about +70 as we speak. Targeting a BIG drop down to 156.43. We'll see how she goes!
I agree with everything you said, except I don't mind building a long position in GS. But that is because it is only in my "retirement" account which is now terribly underweighted in financials and I benchmark it to the MSCI.
Dividends are not safe anywhere, there is no doubt about that. If they were, you wouldn't see BAC yielding 7%+, the floor would have been a point, maybe two, over the RFR.
I'd stay invested if I were in your position. Too tough to call a bottom and a lot of equities are very cheap if we don't go into recession (or get a very mild one). You also must remember that Wall Street is 6 to 9 months forward looking, so if you think we'll have a path to resolution 18-21 months from now then you should stay put.
BTW, my style of investing wouldn't be considered day trading. :wink:
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BTE and NLY both raised their dividends this week. :wink:
I don't see the rest of the energy trusts lowering distributions, nor do I see pharma.
I hope C will stay pat.
Congrats! In contrast, what was your biggest loss ever? Those are the interesting stories! :biggrin:
C holding up nicely, this is quite bullish considering Carlyle. I'm slightly delta positive with short condor on C, so I'm not really rooting for a big jump anyhow.SilverStone05 said:
So what do you guys think... is Bear Stearns solvent? Also, do they get taken out by foreign capital at $50/share? The buyout play looks interesting to me, maybe I'll play some DOTM calls for fun sake. I don't really know if they have a good enough brand name for foreign buyers to get interested, what do you guys think?
Thanks! My biggest forex loss ever was the day before and it was -63 pips. Largest futures loss was like -900/contract in one day. That one hurt.
I made 5k back in the day on a pink sheet, didn't cover, and turned that 5k into a 5k loss. In two days. Lets put it this way, i stayed away from pink sheets ever since.
Any other stories around here? :biggrin:
Coin
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