Thanks for the advice! I'm not in a big hurry to sell, but I must say it's disconcerting to see so many of my stocks at 6 or even 12 month lows. I guess I just don't see, long term, how the dollar can get much stronger with our current situation. Maybe short-term yes, but over the next few months/year?
How 'bout that stock market?
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
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You can see it already playing out today. It could be a several month rally and really whether or not we think that is 'possible' is irrelavent, you have to be prepared either way. There is a lot* of money waiting to turn the trade over and go long the dollar. I mean trillions from all around the world. As soon as oil fell apart they have been waiting to see if the dollar's movements are real and if it can make new highs against the Euro and it's doing so right now.
Sold FXI on a pop, don't have much confidence over the medium term. Call me crazy but I'd rather buy RIG at 126.
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Ameritrade has eaten some rather large trades for me when their site went down.
This is a main reason why I'm very careful with setting up 'exit' strategies as soon as I make a position. I've found it much easier to deal with a broker if you can easily show you had market orders that were not filled, like a sell stop or buy stop order. If you get in a limit order you might have to dissect the ticker tape to make sure it would have caught and like robr mentioned you don't want it to boil down to "well I was going to sell it perfectly at the high of the day so you owe me $$$".
Almost flipped my chair over laughing.
I have a question as my accountant has not gotten back to me yet.
You buy a stock at 6 you roll out a 6 strike call say four months out for 5 bucks and then the stock runs to 13 bucks. the call is trading at 8 bucks because the stock moved up. you buy the call back for 8 in 08 and roll out the 2010-- 10's for 8 bucks, but 4 bucks higher on the strike.
Do you
Have to take the loss on the buy back in 08 of the 6's and book profits on the sale of the 2010-- 10's netting zero until the stock sweeps in 2010 and then you have a 4 dollar profit on the stock?
OR
do you book the loss on the 6's in 08 and then book the gain on the 2010 10's AND the gain on the stock when or if it sweeps at 10 in 2010?
This is a pretty big trade and if I the tax is applied on the calls in 2010 and the the gain on the stock the tax alone will wipe out the extra gain I would have by moving the option forward to 2010.
Anyone know the answer to this? I emailed my accounatant 3 hours ago and no reply yet.
You buy a stock at 6 you roll out a 6 strike call say four months out for 5 bucks and then the stock runs to 13 bucks. the call is trading at 8 bucks because the stock moved up. you buy the call back for 8 in 08 and roll out the 2010-- 10's for 8 bucks, but 4 bucks higher on the strike.
Do you
Have to take the loss on the buy back in 08 of the 6's and book profits on the sale of the 2010-- 10's netting zero until the stock sweeps in 2010 and then you have a 4 dollar profit on the stock?
OR
do you book the loss on the 6's in 08 and then book the gain on the 2010 10's AND the gain on the stock when or if it sweeps at 10 in 2010?
This is a pretty big trade and if I the tax is applied on the calls in 2010 and the the gain on the stock the tax alone will wipe out the extra gain I would have by moving the option forward to 2010.
Anyone know the answer to this? I emailed my accounatant 3 hours ago and no reply yet.
There are a couple different ways to do it but in this particular case I'd lean towards the later. Usually breaking it down as much as possible is most accurate but i'm interested to hear what your accountant says. Also note, I'm glad I'm not your accountant but after I see the bill I might change your mind.
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Long BIDU @ $294, stop set at $285
I've slowly built large positions in RIG and NOV after letting some go when oil was in the high 130's.
I expect NOV to fall another 5 dollars before consolidating and RIG another 7-10. Picked up some SKF at 112 and I'm very glad I picked up EEV and DZZ when I wrote that post at the top of this page. All in all I've been flat for the past few weeks, can't seem to get any momentum.
I expect NOV to fall another 5 dollars before consolidating and RIG another 7-10. Picked up some SKF at 112 and I'm very glad I picked up EEV and DZZ when I wrote that post at the top of this page. All in all I've been flat for the past few weeks, can't seem to get any momentum.
I'm short through puts at the 150 level for 2010 :biggrin:
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I don't plan on holding it that long, just a quick bounce to 330 for me and then she's all yours :tongue:
I am going to go out on a limb here and say, it hit's your stop today.
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Unfortunately for me, I think youre right.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/c...ding_floor_blog.aspx?single=true&blogid=87507
How many shares did you have?
BTW I also think sohu is a big time short too. anything China is a short. VERY soon you are going to see a mass sell off of anything that isn't a financial and the money will pour into financial. I think BIDU will be under 100 in 12 months.
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Just 30. Ill heed your advice on China.
What's your timeframe to be long on financials, 6 months? I've been eyeing C for a while now...
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You know da3dalus, its funny that you posted that chart. I was looking at this page
http://www.chartpatterns.com/symmetricaltriangles.htm
yesterday right before I made the buy but I talked myself out of it because I had a brilliant notion that it was over 300 for over a month now and it was a steal at that price
. Between the chart pattern and the option activity I had solid signs not to make the trade 
. Oh well, lesson learned.Well at least you're learning!!! Thats all you can do. I can bet you that you won't do that again!
Patterns like that are some of the easiest to spot and to trade off of in equities. Very important to always look for basic stuff like that.
Patterns like that are some of the easiest to spot and to trade off of in equities. Very important to always look for basic stuff like that.
Let the bodies hit the floor. Ironically I got short BIDU earlier as well, I already had my EEV position but wanted to juice it a little more and BIDU is far from its lows whereas EEV etc. is making new highs. Not looking good for oil though, I'm hedged out the wazoo to hold on to NOV and RIG, ouch.
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The LHC is turned on in 9 days. I give the market a week.
Heres a cool little site i've been using for awhile... you can search various stocks via chart patterns, etc... but more importantly... you can pull up any stock chart and they already have all the major technical charting stuff on the chart for you... so you can see the setups that the pros are looking at...
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ta=0&p=d&r=1
The signal "drop down" menu has all of the classic TA's in there... great for screening or if you've got a position in something, checking the stock to see if there is any TA drawn on their charts.
Take a look at bidu... its essentially the chart I posted...
If you pull up a ticker... you'll have to click "change to daily technical chart" to get the trendlines drawn in.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ta=0&p=d&r=1
The signal "drop down" menu has all of the classic TA's in there... great for screening or if you've got a position in something, checking the stock to see if there is any TA drawn on their charts.
Take a look at bidu... its essentially the chart I posted...
If you pull up a ticker... you'll have to click "change to daily technical chart" to get the trendlines drawn in.
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Heres a cool little site i've been using for awhile... you can search various stocks via chart patterns, etc... but more importantly... you can pull up any stock chart and they already have all the major technical charting stuff on the chart for you... so you can see the setups that the pros are looking at...
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ta=0&p=d&r=1
The signal "drop down" menu has all of the classic TA's in there... great for screening or if you've got a position in something, checking the stock to see if there is any TA drawn on their charts.
Take a look at bidu... its essentially the chart I posted...
If you pull up a ticker... you'll have to click "change to daily technical chart" to get the trendlines drawn in.
My only comment is be careful about getting too technical when the broad based market is making sharp moves. I could pull up 100 charts that look that well defined right now. I'm not saying it's meaningless, but that its value is degraded in market conditions like these. I also use technical analysis but never as more then 50% of a reason to sell/buy a stock.
I can't say for sure how the financials will trade over the next 6 months, but everything is pointing towards disaster again. The SKF is near is fairly close to its all time lows since this crisis began. 500 billion down, 500 billion to go. Keep that in mind before you go long. I am long GS right now but have 3 times the position in the SKF.
I have 3000 shares of C at 18.94 and another 60 call contracts. My portfolio is packed full of 2010 leaps on anything that get beat to hell in the news. All this will blow over but I think there is one more pull back. I am not messing with any of my leaps until the end of next year. As for all my stock I have been selling deep in the money covered calls and buying them back when we have days like today. I was out fishing all day today so I didn't get a chance to buy any calls back today but it looks like I can rake in 5k on my C calls and about 7k on my AIG calls if the market stays down tomorrow. It's a Friday so there is a good chance it will go down tomorrow too.
I think all my leaps will be worth 10x in 18 months if they stock is still trading.
Glad I sold deep in the money calls on my FCX too. WOW Wthat has gotten pounded.
I am getting bitch slapped on my SIRI 20,000 block at 1.53
Oh well I caught a huge pike today anyway, it had massive teeth on it.
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