How 'bout that stock market?
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
- Start date
I really wish I could spot option opportunities like that sTeve. Hell I wish I knew more about how to play options in general. I mean, I get the gist of it but as far as going out and looking for good setups i'd be completly lost.
Where did you get your education? Any places you'd recommend reading up on some of the strategies you play?
Where did you get your education? Any places you'd recommend reading up on some of the strategies you play?
I learned through losing money. I have never read any book. I have cruised some web sites. I will be reading a book this winter that I bought about really complicated option trades. This trade on LEH is a pretty good trade IMO. there is a 1.50 spread between the 4 and the 2.5 but the premium is 1.43. The cost of the 2.5 is .55 to protect anything below 2.5 add the 55 to the 07 and get a .62 cost for a 1.43 intake. 1.43 minus the .62 that's .81 in proceed.
I am getting SLAMMED on AIG. My loot on AIG has been halfed. I have also sold the 15 puts and bought the 10's. 1.80 in proceeds possible 5 in downside leaves a total of 3.2 in possible loss. This is not as good of a trade as the LEH trade although I think AIG problems TODAY are from LEH walking the plank.
This has got to be one of the most exciting times in the market in a long time. All the banks are collapsing, oil refineries are shutting down a long the coast, lots of money to be made!
So what is your game plan??
This thread is flooded with my insight, go back and read.
At work I do a combination of scalping/momentum plays, in my long term account I hold things for years. Recently I am often doing opposite things in different accounts. One example would be slowly building positions in RIG/NOV at these levels in the long term, while being extremely quick to short DO [statistically moves the most from wed's announcement], DIG, OIH, etc. as the dollar has strengthened. This next week will determine the direction for a significant amount of time because of the 100 level on oil. The only thing that can keep oil over 100 short term is bank collapses to crush the dollar. Long term I will be owning RIG with oil gets 200, which it will.
And commodities as well. I am setting up for a move up wards in commodities.
Yeah I've been following everyone's insight on this thread. I knew that you'd taken a hit on NOV and recently that you've decided to hold and build a position. WHen have you forcasted 200?
I haven't been in the market long enough and have been too busy recently to be following/researching the way I should be... meh.
Thanks again for the insight..
I have taken a hit on NOV but I don't just buy and hold, even in my long term account. I also always* have a strategy, if the strategy breaks, I'm out.
I built a position in NOV during the time it range traded around the 30 mark about 2 years ago. I always kept about half my position on, and sold the other when it hit 35, bought more when it went under 30 then began to reverse. Due to macro analysis, I began to feel extremely confident that for various reasons the fed would began to cut rates drastically and the dollar would fall. I added to my position on any dip up to about 50, then I began to sell it starting around 65. The plan was to sell the last 1/6 when NOV was nearing 100 [this is due to a mix of P/E calculations, interest rate environment, tech analysis, and the oil price]. Obviously I never got to sell that last 1/6 which would have occurred in a perfect world, and I sold the 1/6th before that while the stock was trending down in the low 80's because I thought the oil market was way over heated.
At that point, I still had 33% of my position that was accumulated from the 30-55 range and sold as described above. So was I perfect? No. But if I was that accurate every time I probably wouldn't be on this forum right now.
Since then, I have began to rebuild my position. I have 50% of my total "ideal" position accumulated, with a cost basis in the mid 60's, the stock is currently at 58. Most of the rest of my buying will be done after I see a strong reversal, I rarely try to call bottoms or tops because it's impossible mathematically or scientifically. I never owned rig until recently and it serves a little bit different purpose because of its market position, P/E ratio, etc. then NOV. I have 40% of my RIG position established, I am either a little green or flat because of thursday/friday of last week.
In regards to the 200, I don't know. Nobody does. All I know is the inadequacy of alternative energies, inadequacy of the government to initiate them, extremely underestimated projected usage of oil, and the underestimated current usage. So if the world economy slows greatly and the dollar rallies in the face of severe international conflict, could be 10-15 years. I think it'll be closer to 3-5 years. The deep offshore drillers and those connected to them will be the greatest profiteers. You can do the math on the current run-up's price appreciations in these stocks and loosely fit them to other models, then decide if the risk is good for you. These stocks also provide an excellent hedge.
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At that point it was an estimation, now it's almost fact. Barclays is out of the deal and LEH just turned the wall they had to climb to get out of this into the great wall of china. Gas in austin only spiked about 50 cents but from family/friends in houston the power could be out well in to next week. That will effect the ability of the refineries to function, they are fairly close to the coast comparatively to let's say down town houston which suffered some fairly serious damage.
Good day to have 12.5% of your holdings in SKF. Would be better to have 95% right about now probably.
Oil will not hit 200, maybe in 3-5 years if something goes wrong but not in the next few years.
BAC bought MER as well. I just talked to a friend of mine who works for MER in their singapore division and he said it was probably forced, his higher up was previously involved in talks about selling off assets and was completely in the dark about this one. He had to wait until it was public information before he could tell me [about 60 mins ago].
You should trade with the trend, it's a lot easier
This was something I had from a while ago and was just going to sit on it anyways.
I sold all my financials when fannie and freddie failed and the market treated it like good news.
Do you read the charts much? What I do is look at the daily, the 4hr, and the 1hr. If they are all trending down I will short on the 5min all day long, sometimes I am wrong but not much.
If you buy every correction in a bull market, you'll only be wrong once--the top. If you sell every rally in a bull market, you'll only be wrong once--the bottom.
Yeah I have been buying and selling all along. This AIG is in my hold account. I had been selling covered calls on it for quite sometime. After the dust settles I will see what this really cost me.
I think AIG may not fail as they are just connected to everything. It seems impossible for them to fail but who knows anymore.
I also sold naked puts on AIG at the 15 dollar level, lucky I bought the 10's. I bet I can close the spread today for a gain maybe but at least close to even.
Sounds good, Just hate to see a pimp lose money :biggrin:
It was my bitches money anyways. She will make more tonight.:biggrin::biggrin:
help my life savings are gone!!! I had a majority in AIG, lehman, and worst of all wamu!!!!! Is there any recourse i can do to recover the money??
My house is upside down.. I bought it during the peak of the real estate boom in 2006... I took the equity out of the house to buy a mercedes and my nsx.... i'm behind on payments on both......... Should i pretend my mercedes gets stolen from my house and collect on the insurance?? That will be about 100k or so... then a few months later i'll stage my nsx gets stolen... another 65k or so...
Please I need your help!! :frown:
My house is upside down.. I bought it during the peak of the real estate boom in 2006... I took the equity out of the house to buy a mercedes and my nsx.... i'm behind on payments on both......... Should i pretend my mercedes gets stolen from my house and collect on the insurance?? That will be about 100k or so... then a few months later i'll stage my nsx gets stolen... another 65k or so...
Please I need your help!! :frown:
If you are eluding to bob I don't think it's funny at all.
I'm not joking... i am being serious... its not suppose to be funny.... i have nothing left!!!! This has put a strain on my marriage and my wife is threatening to leave me now!! I got my nsx loaded on the trailer.. gonna be moving out east... :frown:
I guess you have to hit rock bottom before you can start going back up..
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