How 'bout that stock market?

[steveny]

I'm expecting some heavy volatility [not necessarily only to the downside which is what it usually means] as Wells Fargo and JP Morgan announce which will lead up to MER on thursday, the one that will define where the market goes for a while. They are already expecting to lose more than 2 dollars a share, I don't know how much more negative you can really get. C is expecting a gain of 59 cents, which is fairly optimistic IMO. If WFC and JPM give us any momentum and MER follows that, you'll get your 300 point day. The question is which way If WFC and JPM go up, MER goes down, we will probably end the week relatively flat assuming IBM etc. doesn't have a blow out quarter. The banks will rise and the brokers will get hit, especially LEH and other weaker ones. I'm long GS but have some SKF as a hedge so I don't care either way.

Regarding INTC, .27 expected vs .29 doesn't get me overly excited. I think it'll consolidate lower.

I was watching WM afterhours and saw it up 6 or 7% on what I thought was at best decent numbers, the stock is up less than a quarter % now. I don't think that'll happen to INTC but I'm not confident you'll see it up any higher than it already is for a while.

I agree. I am dumping those INTC calls at the open.

 

[RPM217]

Don't forget that Friday is option expiration day and that should lead to increased volatility on Thursday as well, especially near the close!

 

[Ryanmcd2]

Thanks for the advice. If I remember correctly, i'm the only one posting my actual trade logs.

Just trying to show other ways to trade when it's slow. Also anyone can post all winners if you never post losers. If you where at NSXPO 1999 you prob remember Derek Lenord talking, he made 160k in 1 day and now is broke. Seen it too many times. Also you have not made a post in 12 days, you just stop trading? Or maybe winning? Good luck on the NSX sale.

 

[steveny]

up doing research on FSLR. What a POS that thing is. 20B Market Cap LOL. 141 PE, all hype.

 

[sahtt]

up doing research on FSLR. What a POS that thing is. 20B Market Cap LOL. 141 PE, all hype.

I think the easy money has already been made on that trade. I traded SOLF's earnings a while back for a sizeable gain, got out in 48 hours, and have zero urge to play solar again. I think FSLR's 'edge' is there construction process, I think the competition all uses silicone and they do not.

I am not a fan of investing in hopes and dreams. Some EU countries have stepped up their solar buying to huge levels, but there are many nearly unpredictable factors that could have these things dropping so fast you'd barely have time to go short. If Germany stopped buying for instance, if crude has a sizeable drop overnight, if the fad pulls a crox, too much to watch for me on a stock that's already had such a huge run. Reminds me of people getting in gold now, 600 was the level to get in.

 

[steveny]

I think the easy money has already been made on that trade. I traded SOLF's earnings a while back for a sizeable gain, got out in 48 hours, and have zero urge to play solar again. I think FSLR's 'edge' is there construction process, I think the competition all uses silicone and they do not.

I am not a fan of investing in hopes and dreams. Some EU countries have stepped up their solar buying to huge levels, but there are many nearly unpredictable factors that could have these things dropping so fast you'd barely have time to go short. If Germany stopped buying for instance, if crude has a sizeable drop overnight, if the fad pulls a crox, too much to watch for me on a stock that's already had such a huge run. Reminds me of people getting in gold now, 600 was the level to get in.

I agree FSLR is a fad stock for sure. GM's market cap is just a little more then 1/2 of first solars, come on....

 

[SilverStone05]

Just trying to show other ways to trade when it's slow. Also anyone can post all winners if you never post losers. If you where at NSXPO 1999 you prob remember Derek Lenord talking, he made 160k in 1 day and now is broke. Seen it too many times. Also you have not made a post in 12 days, you just stop trading? Or maybe winning? Good luck on the NSX sale.

I'm posting the whole trade logs...which show every trade I make. I do this specifically so skeptics like yourself are quieted.

And no, I do not know who Derek Lenord is, in 1999 I was in high school.

I haven't posted a log in twelve days because I have not made a day trade in 12 days. Couldn't figure that out, Sherlock? The GE that was purchased is a long term holding, not a day trade.

If you would have read my last posts you would have seen....I"m long AAPL....not selling till it hits high 150's...and waiting to take a short position on BIDU. Market conditions have not warranted any action on my part.

Why don't you put your money where your mouth is? You've sat here since day one ragging on my trading as I continue to rake in the gains.

Again, lets see your logs.

Thank you for the well wishes on the sale of my NSX. Maybe someday you'll have one, too.

 

[steveny]

I'm posting the whole trade logs...which show every trade I make. I do this specifically so skeptics like yourself are quieted.

And no, I do not know who Derek Lenord is, in 1999 I was in high school.

I haven't posted a log in twelve days because I have not made a day trade in 12 days. Couldn't figure that out, Sherlock? The GE that was purchased is a long term holding, not a day trade.

If you would have read my last posts you would have seen....I"m long AAPL....not selling till it hits high 150's...and waiting to take a short position on BIDU. Market conditions have not warranted any action on my part.

Why don't you put your money where your mouth is? You've sat here since day one ragging on my trading as I continue to rake in the gains.

Again, lets see your logs.

Thank you for the well wishes on the sale of my NSX. Maybe someday you'll have one, too.

I hope you sold some 160 calls on that aapl. I am down quite a bit on aapl but have managed to trade calls against it for a pretty sweet gain. Mays 160 are ~5 bucks. I bought aapl at 157XX and with options collected I am in at~150. I am feeling 165 soon.
Why are you selling your car?

 

[SilverStone05]

I hope you sold some 160 calls on that aapl. I am down quite a bit on aapl but have managed to trade calls against it for a pretty sweet gain. Mays 160 are ~5 bucks. I bought aapl at 157XX and with options collected I am in at~150. I am feeling 165 soon.
Why are you selling your car?

I'm a car guy...never keep cars too long. 18 months was the longest I've kept a car before getting tired of it. My car comes off lease in August and that will be a full three years! Time for something new. Thinking something with a couple of turbos again. :wink:

 

[sahtt]

The market is pretty confident at this point, we could see 13,000 if MER posts decent figures. I'm going to go ahead and trade the rails I purchased yesterday and wait for a lower entry point or some consistent earnings announcements.

 

[steveny]

Dumped the INTC calls at the open also sold AUY today after a 70 cent jump.

Too bad I didn't uncover NUE yesterday, but still going to make a butt load of money on the calls and stock when it gets swept at 70 on friday.

WTF is going on with GOOG, I thought they got an upgrade yesterday.

 

[steveny]

POT used the word China in a new report today, up 10 bucks...LOL.

 

[da3dalus]

Thanks for the advice. If I remember correctly, i'm the only one posting my actual trade logs.

Proof i'm not full of shit... i'm not saying i'm rolling in the dough here (I only trade 1 contract for gods sake), but this is from this week thus far as of 10:47 this morning. But when you consider how small my account is (2k) thats a 15% gain on it this week so far!

I'm hitting pretty good win rates too! :biggrin:

Cheers!

 

[SilverStone05]

Proof i'm not full of shit... i'm not saying i'm rolling in the dough here (I only trade 1 contract for gods sake), but this is from this week thus far as of 10:47 this morning. But when you consider how small my account is (2k) thats a 15% gain on it this week so far!

I'm hitting pretty good win rates too! :biggrin:

Cheers!

I wasn't directing my post at you, kind sir. Nicely done on your trading this week!

 

[Ryanmcd2]

SilverStone I am not trying to be a dick, Ask da3dalus I talked with him on the phone trying to help him out and give him some ideas. I just have been doing this a long time and have seen people turn 50-60k into 8 mill and lose it all. I am just showing you some ways to trade it when it's a sideways market. All you post up is profits and that does not help anyone, post up how you trade what you look for what kinda stop do you use, how much risk per trade? Who cares if you make 50-100k a day all that does is make people fell bad and then you never post a loss. Post up CHARTS not profits, help people dont make them feel bad.

 

[Ryanmcd2]

Okay, take a look at this chart. It is a 4hr chart and has RSI set to 7 and BB set to 18/2. I am posting just the pinbar setups. If you trade just PB's you will do very well. What makes a PB is a long tail and then it closes up in the top / bottome 25% of the bar. The way I enter these is a break of the high / low of the bar and a stop at the end of the tail. I use a trail 2 bar stop most of the time and I like to put my stop @ cost when about +50-60 and maybe close some of my position. When I enter a position I do 2 trades, 50% each trade at the same prices. What this gives me is a better way to manage the trade as well as help my risk:reward, If I am risking 70 points I want to try to do better then 70 points per contract, if it's 50 then 90 or 30 then 110 or whatever. Once I take 1/2 in profits I put my stop @ cost.

 

[steveny]

SilverStone I am not trying to be a dick, Ask da3dalus I talked with him on the phone trying to help him out and give him some ideas. I just have been doing this a long time and have seen people turn 50-60k into 8 mill and lose it all. I am just showing you some ways to trade it when it's a sideways market. All you post up is profits and that does not help anyone, post up how you trade what you look for what kinda stop do you use, how much risk per trade? Who cares if you make 50-100k a day all that does is make people fell bad and then you never post a loss. Post up CHARTS not profits, help people dont make them feel bad.

I don't understand how it would make people feel bad? I am happy for silverstone and that he is making money.

 

[Ryanmcd2]

I don't understand how it would make people feel bad? I am happy for silverstone and that he is making money.

Me too but someone who is starting out and losing a lot will read this and get mad he is not doing as well. Teaching someone how to trade is better then just showing profits.

 

[da3dalus]

Yea, Ryan has helped me a lot and was kind enough to talk things over with me more than once to get me back on my feet!

Thanks again!

 

[steveny]

Me too but someone who is starting out and losing a lot will read this and get mad he is not doing as well. Teaching someone how to trade is better then just showing profits.

There is no way to learn how to trade in this thread. However this thread has generated several new friends for myself through phone calls. I have helped those people learn more about trading and have learned somethings myself.

BTW, I do post my losses. I don't post my trade slips because I have no clue how to do that. I don't have Photoshop either remove account numbers and personal info. Even if I did have PS I wouldn't know how to use it.

 

[sahtt]

I guess I'll go ahead and listen in on MER's conference call tomorrow morning. I was going to buy POT on any significant dip.. so much for that one.

UYG will be a good way to play tomorrow if there is another rally, I plan on removing my downside hedges and going long UYG if earnings are good. This will also be the time to get long C or BAC or any other big bank you have been waiting on. It won't be a smooth road from here but the momentum will change if we make it through this week OK IMO.

 

[SilverStone05]

SilverStone I am not trying to be a dick.

Yes you are. You have some type of petulant remark toward everything I post. Let's review: margin, spreads, types of accounts, amount of cash per trade....etc, etc...It's really embarassing if you read it all in succession.

I am just showing you some ways to trade it when it's a sideways market.

Thanks, but no thanks. Anything you've said about equities trading is misguided or wrong.

All you post up is profits and that does not help anyone

Cause that's all that I've taken. (knock on wood, God willing) And I post my logs so people like you won't whine about me being a big talker. Additionally....I asked if folks would like me to continue posting my logs...and I received a "Yes" as an answer.

Who cares if you make 50-100k a day all that does is make people fell bad and then you never post a loss. .

You do. You even took the time to sift through this 18+ page thread to count how many days its been since I last posted a trade. You talk about day trading being a job. I'd find it much more tedious scanning through my posts all day. :biggrin:

 

[steveny]

I guess I'll go ahead and listen in on MER's conference call tomorrow morning. I was going to buy POT on any significant dip.. so much for that one.

UYG will be a good way to play tomorrow if there is another rally, I plan on removing my downside hedges and going long UYG if earnings are good. This will also be the time to get long C or BAC or any other big bank you have been waiting on. It won't be a smooth road from here but the momentum will change if we make it through this week OK IMO.

I would go with GS and I would not Phuck with POT in either direction. POT+65.5b MC, uh,,,, no.

 

[steveny]

Cause that's all that I've taken. (knock on wood, God willing) And I post my logs so people like you won't whine about me being a big talker. Additionally....I asked if folks would like me to continue posting my logs...and I received a "Yes" as an answer.

Don't stop posting them either. I like to see what you are up to. I was even able to make some money on SFI and PGH because of your one post.

You think we are gonna post losses on TMA??? Sure isn't looking good so far for any gains. I tossed some in my IRA too.

 

[sahtt]

I would go with GS and I would not Phuck with POT in either direction. POT+65.5b MC, uh,,,, no.

I'm staying GS, it's the only individual financial stock I feel comfortable owning and not just trading in this environment. This one sided oil trade is getting a little out of hand. NOBODY seems to be short crude after it broke through the 110$ level. My APA is not complaining though.