***STICKY*** Gen1 NSX Current Market Analysis

makes sense

Makes sense and thanks for the clarification!


I agree, looking forward to watching it.

Good point Cascade. What you saw there is not an error, but the result of an battle between amount of data and accuracy of data. To help mitigate the relatively low sale data on the NA2 Facelift, I combine data from multiple years of sales into the same value model, but only if the values are similar to the prior year(s). The NA2 Facelift has seen significantly stronger sale prices in all sales so far in 2020, so I made the decision to reset the value model to use only 2020 data. So what you saw was a change from a model built with 2018-2020 data to only 2020 data. This decreased the amount data in the value model, but now the remaining data is a more accurate representation of the NA2 Facelift Market this year.
 
Funny but when we got the first glimpse of the facelift cars in 02...we bemoaned the minor tweaks and opinions were mixed on the bubbles
 
Spot on pricing

I sold my 91 with 69k miles in the $44-46K range - spot on price and thought it was a fair deal for both the seller and buyer.

No, I'm talking about the two on BaT, since you referenced BaT.

2001 13k-mile: I'd guess $95-$100k
1991 69k-mile: I'd guess $44-$46k

The 2001 with 40k miles is probably going to run in the $69-$74k range depending on intangibles like mods, service due, etc. etc.

EDIT: try it yourself, it's really quite comprehensive. RacerXWing did a great job.
 
The first Berlina Black/Onyx

Was going through this thread AFTER purchasing my '91 Berlina Black/Onyx, 29k miles NSX on BaT. I paid $67,500, before BaT premium. Car is completely stock, and turns out to have been (per RacerXwing's charts) the first Berlina Black car sold in the US (last three of vin 412) and original owner was George Lucas (I have the original sale invoice). It's currently at Science of Speed getting a full major, as well as all new hoses. It'll be a keeper, but I'm going to be putting some miles on it, for sure!
 
wow congrats...nice provenance..a few of the early tech now billionaires owned them...
 
how bout chewy....
 
yes

Very strong sale on bringatrailer today for a 1994 white example. Sold at $90k + buyer's fee, whereas the nominal value (not including color or other effects) was around $55k.

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1994-acura-nsx-19/

Yes, that was a REALLY strong sale for sure.... will be interested to see how the currently listed minty red NA2 does.... already bid up to $100k with fees and a week left.
 
Good question. Simply put, the Strongest Sale is the sale with the highest percentage above the nominal value, while the Weakest Sale is the sale with the highest percentage below the nominal value.

For each NSX that sells, I compare the actual sale price to my model-predicted nominal value to produce an index. For example:
  • An NSX that sells at $40,000 with a nominal value of $40,000 has an index of 40000/40000 = 1.00, or +0% sale strength
  • An NSX that sells at $50,000 with a nominal value of $40,000 has an index of 50000/40000 = 1.25, or +25% sale strength
  • An NSX that sells at $30,000 with a nominal value of $40,000 has an index of 30000/40000 = 0.75, or -25% sale strength

I calculate this index for each NSX that sells. The strongest sale for each NSX type is the sale with the largest index, or the highest percentage sale above nominal value. The weakest sale for each NSX type is the sale with the smallest index, or the highest percentage sale below nominal value.

I hope that clears it up.

Have you considered comparing sales data to the adjusted value? Or adding the strength % to the strongest/weakest sales prices? Sorry if you mentioned earlier, but what is the data range for valuation? Rolling 12 mos?
 
Since my radiator took an unnoticed dump and destroyed my 3.0 engine, I'm considering having SOS install 3.2 liter sleeves during the rebuild, using my existing intake manifold and ECU and re tuning the ECU with a Demon II and TunerPro. I am also considering a 6-speed swap -- making effectively a NA2 coupe.

I see parameter listings in the NSX Valuation Documents for "extensive recent maintenance by renowned NSX guru" (which I have in the person of Paul Z of Mestas in Colorado) and a 6-speed conversion. I do see the 12% mean effect for the maintenance but I fail to find percentage alterations for the 6-speed. Does anyone know what such a mean effect would be?
 
Since my radiator took an unnoticed dump and destroyed my 3.0 engine, I'm considering having SOS install 3.2 liter sleeves during the rebuild, using my existing intake manifold and ECU and re tuning the ECU with a Demon II and TunerPro. I am also considering a 6-speed swap -- making effectively a NA2 coupe.

I see parameter listings in the NSX Valuation Documents for "extensive recent maintenance by renowned NSX guru" (which I have in the person of Paul Z of Mestas in Colorado) and a 6-speed conversion. I do see the 12% mean effect for the maintenance but I fail to find percentage alterations for the 6-speed. Does anyone know what such a mean effect would be?

At present, I have only a single NSX in my database that has sold with a 6 speed swap. This particular NSX also had an engine rebuild. It sold for +13% above nominal value. Since this is only a single data point, I would not take this effect as gospel.
 
At present, I have only a single NSX in my database that has sold with a 6 speed swap. This particular NSX also had an engine rebuild. It sold for +13% above nominal value. Since this is only a single data point, I would not take this effect as gospel.

Wow, that was a fast response!

And you're absolutely right that a single data point, while interesting, is not terribly important. I guess it all boils down to: do I want to do this, screw the potential financial impacts.
 
it appears that the all original cars are selling much better than those modified ones. While the asking price is still high in the private sale market, the actual sale is very low or none in today's market.
 
I never desired to modify this car. The plastic header tank on the radiator had a different idea.

That said, during an SOS engine rebuild it is less than $2000 to install everything for a 3.2 liter engine over the 3.0. At the total cost of all this, that will be around 15% -- so why not, especially since I can tune the 3.0 ECM with a Demon II and TunerPro. I would love the 6 speed gearbox because, as you can see from my tag line, I do a LOT of long distance driving so an 8% - 9% RPM drop would be very welcome. I haven't decided whether or not to do this.
 
Finally decided and my CTSC Spa is up on BaT. Looking forward to seeing how it does. Hoping it's a curve breaker!
 
wow

Finally decided and my CTSC Spa is up on BaT. Looking forward to seeing how it does. Hoping it's a curve breaker!

great job with the listing, looks really sharp. for the most part NSX's have been doing really well on BaT lately..... some very strong sales.

interesting that BaT has 4 separate really nice low mileage NSX's running at the same time right now..... you gotta think they all could be to some degree competing for the same buyer(s)?

best of luck!
 
thanks. i think there's a strong chance it'll end up in the six figure range like that black 01. this one is a 2-owner, not a 1-owner, and it is an 00 not an 01, but it's in far better condition. the black one did not even include any maintenance records and hit 115k, but i really have no idea! there aren't many 00-01 model low owner cars with dealer-installed comptech chargers to pull from.

i doubt the 4 are really competing. one was an NA1.1, one is a canadian NA1.2, one is an NA2.2 and one is a supercharged NA2.1. that's not counting the color distinctions. juuuuust enough differentiation that the serious buyers will shift around. that said, I'd love to sell the spa and by that midnight! i'd probably do it too if it were a US car. i've been debating on keeping the spa for a while and ultimately decided that the market is clearly telling me someone wants it a lot more than i do. i am definitely not what anyone thinks of when they think of mr. money bags!
 
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Thanks for the info.
Firstly, I don't know what's going on with Prime's notifications, because I just got notified of your replies today, but your first message was from all the way back in July! Anyways, let's get to it.

I think I'm still confused if you're using nominal to mean value from the top graph or value from the top graph then adjusted for special factors. Are you calculating two different "strength" values- one reported in the Str column which adjusts for special factors and another one that just compares sales price to the value on the first graph (which you report on strongest/weakest sales prices) Is this the formula you use- Str column is sales price/(price obtained from top graph * any special factor adjustment)? Looking at the 6/30 sale at least aligns with that math.

The underlying strength metric that is reported in the "str" column and the strongest weakest sale price table is the same metric.

Yes, that is the process I use for the strength, I also subtract 1 from the result to put the result in terms of a + or - percentage centered around zero instead of centric around 1.

An NSX that sells for $40000 with a nominal value of $40000 would have an Index of 1.00, which equals a 0% str.

Would it be hard to add a column with the % on the strongest/weakest tables?

I understand, you're curious about what the actual corresponding sale strength is for each sale in that table. I can add it easily to the current table.

One other question-how often does the special factor % get updated? Is it recalculated with each sale?

It is recalculated whenever a matching sale meets the criteria.

Hopefully my questions make some sense and aren't too confusing. BTW- this is one of the best uses of docs I've ever come across.

Thank you!

Have you considered comparing sales data to the adjusted value? Or adding the strength % to the strongest/weakest sales prices?

Hopefully I addressed this above

Sorry if you mentioned earlier, but what is the data range for valuation? Rolling 12 mos?

Currently, a new year starts by adding data to the previous year's dataset until either enough data is available or a significant difference in value is observed. At this point, only data from the current year is used.
 
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