How 'bout that stock market?

steveny · 12 November 2008

Balls to the wall with options in the last part of the day here. Lets hope for a bounce because I just plugged a bunch of money in this POS.

Heavy on

FCX
BAC
AMR
XL

sahtt · 12 November 2008

steveny said:
Balls to the wall with options in the last part of the day here. Lets hope for a bounce because I just plugged a bunch of money in this POS.

Heavy on

FCX
BAC
AMR
XL

Bought BAC today too. Just bought some BP. Was looking at AMR but I need my hedges to get up like they are supposed to so I can sell them and buy more.

steveny · 12 November 2008

sahtt said:
Bought BAC today too. Just bought some BP. Was looking at AMR but I need my hedges to get up like they are supposed to so I can sell them and buy more.

With the exception of some AIG I am 100% options at this point. I have them all over the place all the way out to 2011. I am going to continue to influx $ into the 2011's and just sit and wait.

I know I am dreaming but if some of this stuff goes back to where it was before all the excrement hit the air handler I should be a very happy guy. I should have enough to build a 1-1 scale model of Carguy's pad.

sahtt · 12 November 2008

steveny said:
With the exception of some AIG I am 100% options at this point. I have them all over the place all the way out to 2011. I am going to continue to influx $ into the 2011's and just sit and wait.

I know I am dreaming but if some of this stuff goes back to where it was before all the excrement hit the air handler I should be a very happy guy. I should have enough to build a 1-1 scale model of Carguy's pad.

Hey steve, at least you have a shot. 99.99% of people don't even bother putting themselves into the position to have a chance at getting on carguy's level.

steveny · 12 November 2008

sahtt said:
Hey steve, at least you have a shot. 99.99% of people don't even bother putting themselves into the position to have a chance at getting on carguy's level.

This ain't no dress rehearsal.

da3dalus · 12 November 2008

steveny · 13 November 2008

Awesome.... another down day.

sahtt · 13 November 2008

Shorted BAC, AXP, EEM, and HPQ. EEM wasn't trading on the futures and ended up wicking me out a bunch of times, probably flat on that. Made $$ in the rest. BAC was the easiest when it broke I think 17. Sucks when the stock you are shorting you are long in your LT though.

robr · 13 November 2008

my tiny play for today. normally i would watch and sell at market, but i wanted to go to my sons eye appointment so just put a 9.45 limit sell order on it. when i left the house it was down to about 9.17. it peaked out at around 9.75 and is still trading at 9.45.

11/13/2008 10:16 AM $1,890.00 Sold 200 FITB@ $9.45 Details
11/13/2008 09:33 AM $-1,860.46 Bought 200 FITB@ $9.3023 Details

steveny · 13 November 2008

robr said:
my tiny play for today. normally i would watch and sell at market, but i wanted to go to my sons eye appointment so just put a 9.45 limit sell order on it. when i left the house it was down to about 9.17. it peaked out at around 9.75 and is still trading at 9.45.

11/13/2008 10:16 AM $1,890.00 Sold 200 FITB@ $9.45 Details
11/13/2008 09:33 AM $-1,860.46 Bought 200 FITB@ $9.3023 Details

YES!!! Rob you are on your way. Look at it this way. Thats a free 1/2 a tank of gas. You the man for sticking with it. I am smiling ear to ear right now for you.

robr · 13 November 2008

steveny said:
YES!!! Rob you are on your way. Look at it this way. Thats a free 1/2 a tank of gas. You the man for sticking with it. I am smiling ear to ear right now for you.

Thanks Steve, still just trying to climb out of my hole like everyone else. The nice thing about Zecco is it IS free, no commission on my trades as long as I stay under 10/month. No taxes either since I'm still in the hole

.

Started with $3000, was down to $1800, I'm back to $2510 and the only thing I'm holding right now is 24 shares of MI. My feeling (which is a bad thing to involve in trading) is that FITB will be back up to $12 within a week or two. Every time it dips to these levels, it doesn't stay here long. But I don't want to hold it overnight, so I'll just keep inching my way back.

sahtt · 13 November 2008

robr said:
Thanks Steve, still just trying to climb out of my hole like everyone else. The nice thing about Zecco is it IS free, no commission on my trades as long as I stay under 10/month. No taxes either since I'm still in the hole .

Started with $3000, was down to $1800, I'm back to $2510 and the only thing I'm holding right now is 24 shares of MI. My feeling (which is a bad thing to involve in trading) is that FITB will be back up to $12 within a week or two. Every time it dips to these levels, it doesn't stay here long. But I don't want to hold it overnight, so I'll just keep inching my way back.

There are only three things you need to know-risk, reward, and the probability of each occuring. These variables are impossible to master and almost impossible to just get a basic understanding of. Your natural hesitation is probably due to the risk element. Knowing your out is just as important. 50-75% of amatuers don't know their risk OR out. Few can firmly establish one or the other. If you can figure out both and stick to it, you will survive even these markets. If you can figure out those and the probability of each occuring, that's when you get the "fuck you" money we are all searching for.

steveny · 13 November 2008

sahtt said:
There are only three things you need to know-risk, reward, and the probability of each occuring. These variables are impossible to master and almost impossible to just get a basic understanding of. Your natural hesitation is probably due to the risk element. Knowing your out is just as important. 50-75% of amatuers don't know their risk OR out. Few can firmly establish one or the other. If you can figure out both and stick to it, you will survive even these markets. If you can figure out those and the probability of each occuring, that's when you get the "fuck you" money we are all searching for.

That's what I love about option is the max loss is built right in especially with leg spreads. I set the spread at what I am willing to risk and dial in the price of the option to get past 50% risk on my side. That LVS has fallen 2 bucks but I sold the puts for 2.1 so even though the stock fell I am still not out any $. HAd I not bought the 5's for the downside protection I would actually be up even though the stock fell. I had a 30 cents per share risk for a 2.1 reward. Thats a no brainer trade IMO. I may have to give back the 2.10 PPS I sold but if LVS goes back up I can cash out. I already cashed out the call side after it fell for 1.73 spread. Come on market make a run up before next friday.

steveny · 13 November 2008

Now CNBC says you don't want to be short and low and behold the market moves up

I wonder what the reason will be to be short tomorrow?

bambbrose · 13 November 2008

I haven't read this whole thread (I've only been following the last few months worth of pages), but I really admire the knowledge you guys have when it comes to the markets.

I have a question for you guys.

I'm young and I'm just beginning to save for retirement. I will be saving/investing approximately 40k a year after taxes, with a goal of retiring at age 52. I'm currently 23, but will be 24 by the time the savings start rolling in. I could max out my 401k and/or IRA, but I'd prefer to have more control over my finances and not have them run by an investment firm (I'm with john hancock right now via work).

I've read multiple books on saving and retirement planning, but most of them are aimed at the general public and don't seem to offer any advice about the details of stocks and investing. They focus around 401k/IRA and other retirement accounts.

I have a goal of being savvy as all of you someday, but don't really know where to get good quality information to start from.

I will always have a safe retirement plan but I want to get started in on the markets so I can learn and hopefully benefit early on in life to take advantage of the one thing I have going for me, which is time. The 40k I have to invest/save with is more than enough to reach my retirement goals, so I want to play with the extra money and see if I can get there even earlier.

Do you guys have any links that are good at explaining the very basic terminology? I read your posts and have no idea what you guys are talking about:redface:

I've read up on Ameritrade's website but even it seems a bit confusing. I need an introductory FAQ style guide. I have allocated a grand to play around with right now. I can lose it all so my risk tolerance is obviously high. I want to play around and get a feel for the way things work. I need to start sooner than later and start soaking up the information, but I want to make sure I'm soaking up the right information.

Thanks guys

enkrypt3d · 13 November 2008

sahtt · 13 November 2008

bambbrose said:
I haven't read this whole thread (I've only been following the last few months worth of pages), but I really admire the knowledge you guys have when it comes to the markets.

I have a question for you guys.

I'm young and I'm just beginning to save for retirement. I will be saving/investing approximately 40k a year after taxes, with a goal of retiring at age 52. I'm currently 23, but will be 24 by the time the savings start rolling in. I could max out my 401k and/or IRA, but I'd prefer to have more control over my finances and not have them run by an investment firm (I'm with john hancock right now via work).

I've read multiple books on saving and retirement planning, but most of them are aimed at the general public and don't seem to offer any advice about the details of stocks and investing. They focus around 401k/IRA and other retirement accounts.

I have a goal of being savvy as all of you someday, but don't really know where to get good quality information to start from.

I will always have a safe retirement plan but I want to get started in on the markets so I can learn and hopefully benefit early on in life to take advantage of the one thing I have going for me, which is time. The 40k I have to invest/save with is more than enough to reach my retirement goals, so I want to play with the extra money and see if I can get there even earlier.

Do you guys have any links that are good at explaining the very basic terminology? I read your posts and have no idea what you guys are talking about:redface:

I've read up on Ameritrade's website but even it seems a bit confusing. I need an introductory FAQ style guide. I have allocated a grand to play around with right now. I can lose it all so my risk tolerance is obviously high. I want to play around and get a feel for the way things work. I need to start sooner than later and start soaking up the information, but I want to make sure I'm soaking up the right information.

Thanks guys

Investing is very challenging. I'd suggest taking advantage of retirement programs, you need every edge you can get. Jim Cramer's "Real Money" is a good introduction. "Rocking Wall Street" and "The Black Swan" are two of my more advanced favorites. Investopedia.com has some good information as well; look through all the articles, there are thousands. The most valuable resources will not tell you exactly what to do, they will tell you how to think and how the markets function. Steveny is the exception to the rule, he went through the school of hard knocks and learned mostly on his own. Very few people can remain mentally solvent, much less fiscally solvent, with that route. I did the academic (eco degree), professional, (securities licenses etc.), and personal "jump in heads first" strategy. The last has definitely taught me the most and cost me the most money. The danger is if you go in too deep you might not want to jump back in the pool out of fear of drowning.

If you want to test the waters look for what more conservative stuff we are doing than consider the risks and see if you are comfortable with it. Then build a position with 4 shares. Not 4,000, just 4. You can magnify your gains/losses by 1,000 to see if you really want to play with the big boys.

sahtt · 13 November 2008

Here's my new holdings list in my LT account. 1/3 of these were started when we hit 8k the 2nd time, and another 20% were started today when we tested it again. Positions that are 10% or greater of my portfolio are *'d. Greater than 5% are ^'d.

AAPL Apple Inc.^
ATVI Activision Blizzard, Inc.*
BAC Bank of America Corporation Common Stock^
BP BP p.l.c. American Depositary Shares*
DUG ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas^
EEV ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Marke
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Comm
KMP Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. Comm^
MO Altria Group, Inc. Common Stock*
MSFT Microsoft Corporation
NOV National Oilwell Varco, Inc. Common Stock*
PWE Penn West Energy Trust Trust Units
WMI Waste Management, Inc. Common Stock^
YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. Common Stock*

I usually keep it <15 so I can scale in and out weekly without too many transaction costs. Only 8 of my 15 are in the green but I guess I shouldn't be complaining.

da3dalus · 14 November 2008

enkrypt3d said:
Not into the stock market that much but this video is very interesting...

I wonder what the naysayers are saying now? I'd love to see their faces now. :tongue: Thoughts?

This one is pretty scary... Does anyone think we can get out of this mess?

My last year in college I was the portfolio manager for our investment club managing 500k+ in capital. I remember getting laughed at when I suggested that we were heading into a recession in the next year. People actually gasped when I said the "r" word as if it was some unholy curse word not to be whispered in the same sentence as investment. I remember literally being ridiculed for pushing to sell our AAPL position up at over 200.00/share rather than trying to buy more as many members (and our finance teacher) wanted to.

I mean we had "investment professionals" and CFA's coming into our meetings every week that worked for huge firms here in town all telling us that it was a great time to buy and that the Dow was going to 16k within months.

Thats why, for as bad as its getting, I kind of enjoy it because its putting people back on planet earth with some basis of reality. More than that its weeding out the talent from the noise in the profession.

People who are buying this all the way down don't deserve to be in the profession. The hedge funds that are going belly up and have been talking heads on CNBC for years didn't deserve to be there in the first place. If a 22 year old kid from Nebraska can see the writing on the wall 6 months ahead of time there is no excuse for a multi-million dollar fund manager to allow his fund to tank along with the market.

Just my .02

enkrypt3d · 14 November 2008

da3dalus said:
My last year in college I was the portfolio manager for our investment club managing 500k+ in capital. I remember getting laughed at when I suggested that we were heading into a recession in the next year. People actually gasped when I said the "r" word as if it was some unholy curse word not to be whispered in the same sentence as investment. I remember literally being ridiculed for pushing to sell our AAPL position up at over 200.00/share rather than trying to buy more as many members (and our finance teacher) wanted to.

I mean we had "investment professionals" and CFA's coming into our meetings every week that worked for huge firms here in town all telling us that it was a great time to buy and that the Dow was going to 16k within months.

Thats why, for as bad as its getting, I kind of enjoy it because its putting people back on planet earth with some basis of reality. More than that its weeding out the talent from the noise in the profession.

People who are buying this all the way down don't deserve to be in the profession. The hedge funds that are going belly up and have been talking heads on CNBC for years didn't deserve to be there in the first place. If a 22 year old kid from Nebraska can see the writing on the wall 6 months ahead of time there is no excuse for a multi-million dollar fund manager to allow his fund to tank along with the market.

Just my .02

So how do we avoid complete collapse next year? :frown:

da3dalus · 14 November 2008

enkrypt3d said:
So how do we avoid complete collapse next year? :frown:

I honestly don't think we can... things set in motion right now don't appear to be able to be averted... at least not with the action being taken in Washington...

What people need to understand is that this has been literally 50-60 years in the making and it can't be fixed, stopped, avoided, or even dealt with in a year, let alone 10.

I personally feel that we are on the verge of a shift in our markets, expected capital growth, yearly returns, debt levels, and (and i hope i'm wrong) social unrest due to all of the above shocking the broader economy.

Here in Omaha we have already seen a 10% increase in shootings in the past two months, robberies are up something like 15%, purse snatching at malls/parking lots is happening almost daily and restaurants that used to be clogged for dinner on the weekends now have no wait times...

John Q Citizen is gonna get hit HARD here.

But unfortunately I kind of feel its a necessary purge that needs to happen in our economy/society. We can't keep building "wealth" (and our society) on debt.

enkrypt3d · 14 November 2008

da3dalus said:
I honestly don't think we can... things set in motion right now don't appear to be able to be averted... at least not with the action being taken in Washington...

What people need to understand is that this has been literally 50-60 years in the making and it can't be fixed, stopped, avoided, or even dealt with in a year, let alone 10.

I personally feel that we are on the verge of a shift in our markets, expected capital growth, yearly returns, debt levels, and (and i hope i'm wrong) social unrest due to all of the above shocking the broader economy.

Here in Omaha we have already seen a 10% increase in shootings in the past two months, robberies are up something like 15%, purse snatching at malls/parking lots is happening almost daily and restaurants that used to be clogged for dinner on the weekends now have no wait times...

John Q Citizen is gonna get hit HARD here.

But unfortunately I kind of feel its a necessary purge that needs to happen in our economy/society. We can't keep building "wealth" (and our society) on debt.

Well said...

Have you seen "Money as Debt?" Its sobering and makes me wanna buy guns lol :redface:

da3dalus · 14 November 2008

I haven't seen it, but i'm gonna check it out now! Thanks

steveny · 14 November 2008

Come on break free you bitch and run

sahtt · 14 November 2008

haha. I got long PRU/MET/HIG in the morning rally and should have quit then. I've given about 40% of it back throughout the day. One day I'm going to learn how to trade this pos EEM.

How 'bout that stock market?

Similar threads