I think we are largely talking about two different issues, one being the general market for 2002-2005 NSXs and the other a limited submarket of timewarp pristine 2005s.
Its all good.
What is the lowest price do you THINK the NSX will be worth?
- Thread starter Airwolf AE86
- Start date
I think we are largely talking about two different issues, one being the general market for 2002-2005 NSXs and the other a limited submarket of timewarp pristine 2005s.
Its all good.
Ski_Banker
Suspended
Yes, Genius, there must be two different markets operating under two different sets of economic forces.
Like I said. You win. I can't explain this to you if you apparently don't understand economics and price discovery through changes in S & D. Everyone else reading this, that does, thinks you are a fool based on your logic BTW.
I'm sure you'll have your nice, garage kept 2005 for $40k soon enough - just keep those fingers crossed.
In the Tokyo auto show later this year Honda/Acura suppose to showcase a near-production ready of the NSX replacement or the so called AASC. I believe once Acura/Honda confirms the new NSX will be a FR, GT coupe platform, the prices on the original NSX will start to rise even more.
This is mainly due to all hopes for a true NSX mid-engine replacement are demolished.
To be honest I think the AASC looks really ugly.
The "Remix" concept is also ugly.
The "ASC" Advanced Sedan Concept is the ugliest of them all!
Sorry, don't mean to offend anyone, this is my personal opinion.
This is mainly due to all hopes for a true NSX mid-engine replacement are demolished.
To be honest I think the AASC looks really ugly.
The "Remix" concept is also ugly.
The "ASC" Advanced Sedan Concept is the ugliest of them all!
Sorry, don't mean to offend anyone, this is my personal opinion.
Yes, Genius, there must be two different markets operating under two different sets of economic forces.
Like I said. You win. I can't explain this to you if you apparently don't understand economics and price discovery through changes in S & D. Everyone else reading this, that does, thinks you are a fool based on your logic BTW.
I'm sure you'll have your nice, garage kept 2005 for $40k soon enough - just keep those fingers crossed.
That you presume to condescend to me is amusing. For a while I was pleasantly surprised that you had discovered tact, but it was an illusion.
I have never claimed that a nice garage kept 2005 could be had for $40k in the near future, or at any time.
I expressed an opinion that the absolute bottom of the larger 2002+ NSX market was $40k, and noted that it had not reached that level and may never. You can create all the straw men you want, it changes nothing.
I have never confused the issues and I understand economics. It was you that responded to my point about the 2002+ market with your beliefs regarding the value of a pristine low-mile 2005.
Good day to you.
I predict the s2000 will bottom out around 8k if they keep making it a couple more years and the sales figures stay consistent. The 'minor' issues that are apparent now will be more common than not in a few years. New transmission, 2k, new diff, 2k, etc. that the average buyer will have to take into consideration. 8k is actually quite high for a 30k car. MB S600's built in the early 90's in mint condition now sell in the high 20's with sub 60k miles and at one point sold for nearly $150k as an extreme example; most German cars aren't far off this. If the s2000 had lower insurance and better gas mileage [it's actually quite poor for its drive train] it would make its value higher to the lower income brackets in this market.
The NSX's strongest asset is its very low production number and cult following. Combine that with one of a kind durability/reliability/simplicity and you have the perfect low depreciation factors. I expect the above estimations are very accurate, it will not get below the 15-18k mark besides extreme examples. Clean 91's with normal mileage will hover in the high 20's for several more years if not another decade.
The NSX's strongest asset is its very low production number and cult following. Combine that with one of a kind durability/reliability/simplicity and you have the perfect low depreciation factors. I expect the above estimations are very accurate, it will not get below the 15-18k mark besides extreme examples. Clean 91's with normal mileage will hover in the high 20's for several more years if not another decade.
Ski_Banker
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What is your occupation? You haven't presented any rationale for your conclusion, and yet incorrectly refute mine. Tell us all here what your experience is. Give us some reason to think you know what you are talking about.
Anyway, given that we haven't defined "the market" here - I will have to disagree with you again. Earlier, I thought you were referring to "normal" 02+ examples bottoming at $40k -- which they won't as I explained based on a specific economic argument. Are you then referring to the market for slightly wrecked and abused 02+s? If so, then $40k might be a good guess. Of course, the only real bottom for substandard/wrecked NSXs is $0 in a worst case scenario. Other than past price history, to which we agree, you haven't presented any basis for your projection. Guess you're the guy for whom the fine print "Past performance does not guarantee future results" on mutual fund prospectuses is intended.
Good day to you, too. And good luck with the Marketplace Moderator job - pay attention and you will learn something.
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Your resort to personal attacks does not help your argument.
Do not confuse restraint with weakness. I have said good day and I frankly do not care what you believe nor do I need to justify my opinions to you.
Ski_Banker
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What personal attacks? I referred to your incorrect statements as being foolish, and by association, you as a fool. They're wrong. You're wrong. I even "let you win" in an earlier post, but you had to get the last word in and it was again false.
Thanks, also, for clarifying exactly what this sad debate is about: Opinions. You haven't expressed 1) any basis for your opinion, or 2) listed any professional credibility, which could provide comfort that you know jack about microeconomics & markets.
Your opinion. Where can I sign up for your investing forecast newsletter?? What a joke.
Ski_Banker
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Ok, let's keep it professional:
If you think 02+ NSXs will "bottom" at $40k, please share with NSX Prime just how you think those prices will change from high 50s+
I'll make it easy for you. A car's value will change due to:
1. Utility
2. Substitutes
3. Macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, price levels, wealth distribution)
Feel free to spend some time. Bonus points if you can link this to a discussion of supply and demand. If I'm wrong, as you confidently asserted, don't be a pussy and tell the world how & why using a logical valuation framework.
Dude, no matter if you're right or not, you have been making personal attacks.
I don't have a dog in this fight, I figure both of you are wrong.
Ski_Banker
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Dude, no matter if you're right or not, you have been making personal attacks.
I don't have a dog in this fight, I figure both of you are wrong.
I know. :redface: I'd happily apologize, but I want to understand why he thinks I'm wrong. It's a subject I've personally thought about ad nauseum (before I bought my 2005), and if I'm wrong...sucks for me.
Your personal attacks are clear from the posts above.
I have always qualified my statements as opinion and belief.
I was not trying to get the last word. I was trying to be polite and throw you a bone and you threw it back in my face.
I have never claimed to be an economist. I have taken basic micro and macro economics courses. I have a degree in philosophy and a law degree. I am an attorney by trade. Part of my practice involves the defense of municipalities on a variety of claims, including tax assessment claims in which I deal with issues relating to the assessment and appraisal of real property.
You seem to be incapable of having a respectful discussion of an issue where there is a disagreement of opinion. I have observed this in other threads, BTW. Even in the post below where you try to keep it professional you can't and in the last paragraph can't resist another insult.
First of all, you need to actually understand what my opinion is. My opinion is that the absolute bottom of the market for a 2002+ NSX is $40k. I have no idea how long it may take for the 2002+ to reach that level or if it ever will, but the thread asked for the lowest price and that is as low as I can conceive of such a car ever going.
I have never contended that the average transaction price for a 2002+ NSX is $40k or anywhere close. I am well aware of what those cars are selling for. That said, there are examples with higher than average miles but still legitimate, clean, non-salvage, etc. vehicles, that are in the high $40s and low $50s at present.
Given the NSX sales difficulty and the ever-increasing performance of much less expensive cars, as well as the strong supply of well-kept older NSXs when considered relative to the supply of the 2002+ models, it is reasonable to assume the 2002+ will continue to depreciate as it has been doing since its inception.
The elasticity of NSX demand varies greatly depending upon the particular model and price point.
The utility of a 2002+ is essentially the same as that of a 1997-2001, and not all that different from that of a 1991-1996.
Substitutes, albeit not perfect, exist in the form of the 1997-2001 models and the 1991-1996 models, as well as the alternatives from other marques and perhaps even Honda itself if they would ever get their NSX successor off the ground. Not everyone who chooses a 1991-1994 NSX or any other year, does so because it was the most expensive NSX they could afford. Many people like the virtues of the early coupe and pay top dollar in a relative sense for a pristine example or particular color configuration.
As far as the macro economic forces, that is anyone's guess, but it is not inconceiveable to think that changes in the distribution of wealth or tax treatment of gasoline vehicles, oil rationing, whatever, could impact the value of a 2002+ NSX at some point in the future. My opinion as to the absolute bottom of the market is a very long-term belief that I freely admit may well never materialize.
We are largely having a semantic debate on the impact of these various market forces.
Does that qualify me to escape your label of a pussy?
Unbelievable read. If one really is that concerned about status, perceptions, re-sale values, afford-ability to 'kids', brand linage, how your peers modify their cars, and other such elitist jumbo... then joining the Ferrari club is the perfect exit strategy from lowly 2K/NSX ownership.
You can then surround yourself with other exotic owners, that from what I can tell enjoy little more than just such discussion; having freed themselves from all the mundane aspects of production car ownership and performance tuning. You'll also never have to worry about the bottom rung, as an F430 wrapped around a telephone pole is probably still worth like 85 grand.
When you finally do 'step up' to one, just do me a favor and bring it up my way. Because, I want to be watching from the grand stands when my 19yr old friend in his $9,000 'bastardized' red 300ZX with "the 6' wing" and 'ugly wheels' spanks you lap after lap.
The facts are, Manheim MMR shows a handful of NSX results in the high teens, under that and it is probably wrecked at IAA. More likely, it is better maintained and into the mid to high 20's, if not low 30's.. as it has been for as long as I can remember.
You can then surround yourself with other exotic owners, that from what I can tell enjoy little more than just such discussion; having freed themselves from all the mundane aspects of production car ownership and performance tuning. You'll also never have to worry about the bottom rung, as an F430 wrapped around a telephone pole is probably still worth like 85 grand.
When you finally do 'step up' to one, just do me a favor and bring it up my way. Because, I want to be watching from the grand stands when my 19yr old friend in his $9,000 'bastardized' red 300ZX with "the 6' wing" and 'ugly wheels' spanks you lap after lap.
The facts are, Manheim MMR shows a handful of NSX results in the high teens, under that and it is probably wrecked at IAA. More likely, it is better maintained and into the mid to high 20's, if not low 30's.. as it has been for as long as I can remember.
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There were 6800+ S2000s sold in the USA in the year 2000 alone.
IMHO the NSX prices for anything under 2001 are pretty much where they will stay for the next 5-10 years. Except mileage will go up on the examples that are for sale.
We've seen the clean 91-92 models go from average of mid-20s up to high-20s/low-30s in the last few years. Have a look at the for sale section. It used to be full of nice cars in the 24-28K range and there were only a few people asking over 30K. Now the majority of people are asking 28-35K, and they seem to be selling just as fast.
I don't agree with his estimate, but just to play devil's advocate, here is one way we could make an arguement that we'll see the 02-05 cars drop dramatically from the $60-80K they are demanding today.
2007 R8's are selling now brand new at full MSRP for ~$120,000. It's the closest thing out there to the NSX, and without getting into another arguement, lets just agree for this example that it a superior car to the 02-05 NSX in factory form. And they are making quite a few of these cars.
Within a few years, the used 08 R8's should drop to around $70-90k used as the 09 and 10 model year R8 cars are released. Especially since the 09 version of the car is rumoured to be will be offered as a targa top like the CGT, with a V10 upgrade. That could make the earliest R8s drop in value fairly quickly.
If in 2-3 years you were looking for a mid engine car in the 60-80K range, the 5 year newer, faster, and more modern Audi would be most people's first choice. With 420hp, AWD, and more modern styling, it covers the complaints about why the NSX became an automotive dinosaur. And Audi's aren't known for great resale values. It is likely that this new alternative mid engine choice will drop into what is now the 02-05 NSX price range of $60-80K. Also don't forget the continued drop in price of the 355/360 F cars and even the early Gallardos. The number of buyers won't increase much, but the supply of supercars in that price range is about to become more plentiful. Especially if we have a major real-estate/market correction and people have to start dumping toys or repossessing defaulted leases.
So I pick #2. Substitute. There will potentially be lots of mid-engine low-end supercars that will flood that price bracket within the next few years.
But being more realistic, I'd be shocked to ever see the 02-05 go below $45-50K.
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Ski_Banker
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Hard to tell, since it doesn't answer the fundamental question: Why there has been a market (albeit a very small one) for $85k NSXs, and why you think suddenly that market has disappeared. Utility has not changed. Nor have substitutes, as far as I can tell. Someone else posted, very intelligently IMO, the biggest threat to $80k 05 NSX pricing -- the R8, which seems to be a pretty good substitute. Remains to be seen however.
I am quite capable of 1) admitting when I'm wrong and 2) carrying an intelligent debate. I only argue, sometimes passionately, about the 1% of thread topics to which I have particular knowledge (never NSX related). It's unfortunate that you don't like my posts, but, frankly I could care less. And in my private equity & bulge bracket M&A investment banking career, I have learned time and again to ignore business advice from legal counsel.
I look forward to asserting a baseless counter opinion to your next legal-oriented discussion on Prime. Should be fun, in a juvenile sort of way.
PM me your name. I'd be curious what the Stark guys think of your professional service.
Ski_Banker
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I don't agree with his estimate, but just to play devil's advocate, here is one way we could make an arguement that we'll see the 02-05 cars drop dramatically from the $60-80K they are demanding today.
2007 R8's are selling now brand new at full MSRP for ~$120,000. It's the closest thing out there to the NSX, and without getting into another arguement, lets just agree for this example that it a superior car to the 02-05 NSX in factory form. And they are making quite a few of these cars.
Within a few years, the used 08 R8's should drop to around $70-90k used as the 09 and 10 model year R8 cars are released. Especially since the 09 version of the car is rumoured to be will be offered as a targa top like the CGT, with a V10 upgrade. That could make the earliest R8s drop in value fairly quickly.
If in 2-3 years you were looking for a mid engine car in the 60-80K range, the 5 year newer, faster, and more modern Audi would be most people's first choice. With 420hp, AWD, and more modern styling, it covers the complaints about why the NSX became an automotive dinasour. And Audi's aren't known for great resale values. It is likely that this new alternative mid engine choice will drop into what is now the 02-05 NSX price range of $60-80K. Also don't forget the continued drop in price of the 355/360 F cars and even the early Gallardos. The number of buyers won't increase much, but the supply of supercars in that price range is about to become more plentiful. Especially if we have a major real-estate/market correction and people have to start dumping toys or repossessing defaulted leases.
So I pick #2. Substitute. There will potentially be lots of mid-engine low-end supercars that will flood that price bracket within the next few years.
But being more realistic, I'd be shocked to ever see the 02-05 go below $45-50K.
I think you're absolutely right about the R8, assuming the car turns out to be as good as everyone thinks. Definitely a new NSX substitute, no doubt about it. I just hope they stay north of $100k for a long time! :wink:
Ski_Banker
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No illusion. I have tact, and sometimes I use it. I think your confusion here stems from my daunting personal attacks - so shocking, in fact, that you've presented a personal attack of your own!
You are taking this far too personally. Give it a rest already.
I received the same feeling from the first few posts. Just because there are more riced out 300zx's [I owned a 91 turbo for my first car] than mazda MX-6's doesn't mean it's a worse car, or inferior in any way. IMO when other people's images of their cars start effecting your image of yours, you are driving for the wrong reasons.
For such an interesting topic, this thread went downhill quickly, and is largely deviod of useful information. I think the NSX's amazing styling alone is likely to mark the current price levels of NA1 models as a market bottom. 2002+ MYs are likely to depreciate over the next couple of years before their prices stabilize. Utlimately, I expect the NSX to hold it's value over the next 5 years, before beginning to increase.
Nevertheless, a car is meant to be driven, and the prospect of increasing value or purchasing an NSX (or any other car) as an investment is crazy. We're already making out like bandits just enjoying the car to it's fullest, and being able to sell it for nearly what we paid year(s) earlier.
Nevertheless, a car is meant to be driven, and the prospect of increasing value or purchasing an NSX (or any other car) as an investment is crazy. We're already making out like bandits just enjoying the car to it's fullest, and being able to sell it for nearly what we paid year(s) earlier.
As someone who does the Manheim PA run on a weekly basis, Ive seen those "mid to high teen NSX". Frame and Salvage dont show on MMR and those cars belonged in Junkyards than crossing an auction block. Ive seen 360's due in the 50k's but car that need tons of work arent enough to "gauge the market".
I think NSX's, real nice NSX's will not drop in value anymore than they have already-mid to high $20k. I think the S2K's will flat line in the low to mid teens.
Again this is for clean title, no major issue vehicles. Junk will always be junk.
I can only speak from personal experience, but as a previous owner who is thinking of taking the plunge again I sold my 91' for roughly what I paid after 2 years of ownership($28-$30 range). From what I have seen of the NSX market 97-01 NSXs are still going in the $50k range and I can't see them going for much less. I would actually venture that Prime has a great deal of influence on the NSX market. Properly informed buyers with the desire for clean, properly maintained NSXs, results in many willing to pay a premium for top cars bolstering the market. I was thinking of a 2003 which don't seem to go below $60k but I may just decide that 10k is alot for headlights and a rear valance. That said I do not believe that if I decide to go with a 97-01 that it will do anything to bring down the price of 02-05 models. I think it is really too soon to see 02-05 prices leveling off, with only two years out of production and the annual sales numbers there were likly only about 500 people who were not able to purchase a new 06 or 07 NSX but they were offered many 04-05 models in the high $60 to mid $70 range which they gladly paid compared to $80+.
Could well be, if you are standing in the lanes every week then you know better than I the truth behind the sheets on those transactions, seeing how I am in Seattle at the moment. Uggh, I miss my Fridays there.
Either way, I'd say you are pretty spot on with my guesstimates. The nice ones are good values when they come up.
