Stock market - look up above

[chado]

That kind of dividend tax hike is a scary thought, I just can't see it going any higher than 25% or so.. hopefully not even that high. :frown:

If it does jump 10% or 30% do you really see it changing the way investors look at the traditionally high yield dividend stocks? Would it effect your strategies significantly?


I think shorting might be extreme because of the demographic traditionally involved with these HYD stocks.. Then if the stock price is relatively unchanged seems they will just find ways to adjust dividend payouts to compensate and any fear would become minimal..
I believe some are already offering "qtr 5 dividends".

 

[docjohn]

If taxes go up next year on stock earnings the end of this year will see some wild days.

 

[bambbrose]

A better play (IMO) for future tax increases is to get long muni bonds. I prefer funds; NUV and NXP are conservative with good yield. For those unfamiliar, in states like TX with no state income tax an individual pays NO tax on muni bond interest.

sahtt or anyone else, what is your opinion on the risks with muni bonds currently?

Upside is ~5% to 7% tax free return. Downside is?

Is it possible to get down into the details on what municipal bonds back a specific stock, such as DSM, NUV or NXP? If so, where is this information hidden ( quarterly reports, etc.)?

If they are backed by a bunch of insolvent CA municipalities I assume they are higher risk than those backed by say ND municipalities.

What other factors affect muni bond risk?

 

[sahtt]

sahtt or anyone else, what is your opinion on the risks with muni bonds currently?

Upside is ~5% to 7% tax free return. Downside is?

Is it possible to get down into the details on what municipal bonds back a specific stock, such as DSM, NUV or NXP? If so, where is this information hidden ( quarterly reports, etc.)?

If they are backed by a bunch of insolvent CA municipalities I assume they are higher risk than those backed by say ND municipalities.

What other factors affect muni bond risk?

Use cefconnect.com. Best resource by far. As long as you understand the macro risks, the information on that site will take care of the rest.

 

[bambbrose]

Sahtt I've been glued to that website for a week now and still cannot believe that it is free!

Awesome resource and much appreciated!

 

[sahtt]

Sahtt I've been glued to that website for a week now and still cannot believe that it is free!

Awesome resource and much appreciated!

One of the best. I'd encourage throwing them a few bucks if you get value from it; that's what keeps it free. Quantumonline.com is another great resources; when the preferred shares were collapsing during the financial crisis that site saved my rear a few times. Knowing whether a share class's dividends/interest payments is cumulative or not makes all the difference in the world when it's falling apart.

 

[jond]

Anyone here short FB? It's at $19.16 right now.
Thinking about throwing some play money in a short position.
Ride it down to $6.00

 

[Budweiser®]

Anyone here short FB? It's at $19.16 right now.
Thinking about throwing some play money in a short position.
Ride it down to $6.00

I'm thinking about buying some puts...what's your timeframe?

Sahtt, what would you advise re: speculating with puts? Specifically the Nov. 17th $12 strike. Do you know any resources for calculating premiums on options?

 

[sahtt]

I'm thinking about buying some puts...what's your timeframe?

Sahtt, what would you advise re: speculating with puts? Specifically the Nov. 17th $12 strike. Do you know any resources for calculating premiums on options?

I don't know any available to the public but they are probably out there. There are fantastic commerical products for professional traders. Try searching seekingalpha.

The problem with options isn't options - it is they add another layer of complexity to a process most people already inadaquately understand (99%). In addition to evaluating the prices and ascertaining reasonable probabilities of each occurring to determine your risk, you have to do the exact same work again with the option contract itself.

Frankly I'd buy puts on almost any stock in the S&P 500 right now if they were priced well. I don't follow the options market as close as I used to but the only high value puts I've run across are on the high beta, ultra successful tech companies; AMZN and AAPL for instance. XOM and some other highly stable energy firms also have well priced puts out there but I don't think they will collapse significantly even if the market detriorates. AMZN would though. FB puts seem fairly priced at best. Going short in general is tricky and IMO only easily utilized as a hedging tool.

 

[Budweiser®]

I don't know any available to the public but they are probably out there. There are fantastic commerical products for professional traders. Try searching seekingalpha.

The problem with options isn't options - it is they add another layer of complexity to a process most people already inadaquately understand (99%). In addition to evaluating the prices and ascertaining reasonable probabilities of each occurring to determine your risk, you have to do the exact same work again with the option contract itself.

Frankly I'd buy puts on almost any stock in the S&P 500 right now if they were priced well. I don't follow the options market as close as I used to but the only high value puts I've run across are on the high beta, ultra successful tech companies; AMZN and AAPL for instance. XOM and some other highly stable energy firms also have well priced puts out there but I don't think they will collapse significantly even if the market detriorates. AMZN would though. FB puts seem fairly priced at best. Going short in general is tricky and IMO only easily utilized as a hedging tool.

Thanks. Agreed on all counts, and of course the historical performance of all options (~80% expire worthless) means the buyer is typically at a disadvantage to begin with.

I'm looking at it as purely a speculative play as the lockup period ends then and judging from the most recent lockup ending we should see some sort of a dip and some volatility. Especially considering this is 45% of all shares. With the 50% dive from IPO pricing I'm guessing those still in lockup are fairly eager to get out.

 

[Ultraman]

Anyone here short FB? It's at $19.16 right now.
Thinking about throwing some play money in a short position.
Ride it down to $6.00

Looks like FB has found a (short term) bottom at around $19/20, shorting after it breaks $18.75 is probably better imo.

 

[Ultraman]

With ECB and the FED willing to support the world economy and Q2 earnings on S&P 500 not as bad as most analysts anticipated I'm leaning toward the market will go higher in the next couple months leading into the election. AAPL closed another all time high today, breaking out the 3 months trend line. Similar action can be seen in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

I'm long on stocks in my portfolio right now and adding positions on weakness.

 

[jond]

Looks like FB has found a (short term) bottom at around $19/20, shorting after it breaks $18.75 is probably better imo.

Agree. I'm thinking I'll go in around mid-september and ride it down to xmas.

 

[bambbrose]

Are we at the top? Thinking about pulling until spring. With all the political garbage coming up I'm a bit cautious.

What happened to eurozone? Seems like media is ignoring it over there. Is there really no news? The problem hasn't been solved.

 

[chado]

same position..

 

[sahtt]

Never underestimate a politician's ability to delay the inevitable. Japan has been in free fall since the 1980's and now has a debt to GDP ratio that puts Greece to shame - anything is possible if you are willing to pay the price.

I haven't done anything significant outside of getting out of AAPL in the low/mid 600's. The rest of my positions pay good dividends and I've already taken a little of each off the table. Got hammered in a speculative play but it could have been much worse; shaved a clean 5% off my non-retirement portfolio (which is bigger than my retirement portfolio unfortunately).

 

[Ultraman]

Are we at the top? Thinking about pulling until spring. With all the political garbage coming up I'm a bit cautious.

What happened to eurozone? Seems like media is ignoring it over there. Is there really no news? The problem hasn't been solved.

I think you gotta be in the market, at least for the time being.

Also, need to own some financial stocks in the portfolio. We got good reports from JPM and C so far, and I expect very good numbers coming from GS tomorrow.

JIMO.

 

[docjohn]

bump...wow howsabout all this buying.....

 

[kookoo4nsx]

Uh oh. I usually start selling when I see a lot of posts in this thread.

 

[jond]

Didn't the Fed say QE is ending soon?
Seems like QE was the only thing pushing the market up?

.

 

[docjohn]

Didn't the Fed say QE is ending soon?
Seems like QE was the only thing pushing the market up?

.

there was talk within the fed to extend it,,thus yesterdays rally.

 

[jond]

there was talk within the fed to extend it,,thus yesterdays rally.

Interesting. I just skimmed the minutes. What I heard on the news pulled out a few sentences of the minutes to spin it. Amazing.
You're right. So question is, why isn't Gold rallying?
I also wonder if it will ever end with Japan doing what they're doing. I would assume everyone else has to ease some just because of Japan(3rd largest economy in the world)?

 

[docjohn]

I think more yen is flowing out of Japan,,,,,gold is gold,but silver seems to be getting more buzz at these levels.

 

[jond]

I think more yen is flowing out of Japan,,,,,gold is gold,but silver seems to be getting more buzz at these levels.

Yeah, if I lived in Japan, I would trade my Japan dollars for US stock.
If I was smart, I would have traded my USD for Japan stocks when they announced their massive QE.

 

[Ritesh]

Can you guys who are market experts explain this:

http://www.moneynews.com/Outbrain/b...-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=FE8A-1

Seems like the stock market bubble is about to burst.