Stock market - look up above

[jond]

That's not exactly true, as a result of that decision the FCC now has the authority to basically make any rule they like in regards to regulation of the Internet including pricing. This was a huge win for the FCC.

That's not the way I've read it.
Internet providers are now allowed to block or slow down any website they want.
Netflix is threatening forming boycotts if they do it.

Net Neutrality being voted down is a massive loss to the freedom and openness of the internet.
It's an extremely bad thing.

Netflix's opinion this week:

"Netflix writes in its shareholder letter. "In principle, a domestic ISP now can legally impede the video streams that members request from Netflix, degrading the experience we jointly provide.""
"In a worst-case scenario, Netflix imagines a situation in which it would have to pay fees to ISPs to stop that degradation, but it sounds like the company wouldn't just sit back and let that situation happen. "Were this draconian scenario to unfold with some ISP," Netflix writes, "we would vigorously protest and encourage our members to demand the open internet they are paying their ISP to deliver.""


What is Net Neutrality:

"Net neutrality (also network neutrality or Internet neutrality) is the principle that Internet service providers and governments should treat all data on the Internet equally, not discriminating or charging differentially by user, content, site, platform, application, type of attached equipment, and modes of communication"


Last weeks new ruling:

"A federal appeals court has struck down Federal Communications Commission rules that prohibit Internet service providers (ISPs) from restricting access to legal Web content."



References:
http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/22/netflix-net-neutrality/
http://www.theverge.com/2014/1/22/5...ustomer-action-if-isps-violate-net-neutrality
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_neutrality
http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/14/technology/fcc-net-neutrality/

 

[robr]

From what I read, it says that even though net neutrality was shot down, the FCC now clearly has the authority to just create what is essentially a net neutrality rule as it has the authority to do so (which before this case it was unclear if they had that authority). It seems it's a long involved process, but the analysis I read says that the court basically gave them a road map in how to write the regulations so they would be legal should they choose to go that route.

 

[jond]

Any guesses as to where's the bottom of the market?
Based on what the market did during the prior threats of ending QE, this seems like the bottom.
And I told myself I was going to buy back in around here.

BUT, it also seems like there's ZERO reason we should be above the 2007 peaks.
If things only went up above the 07 peak because of QE, and QE is gone....
That would mean another 1,000 drop to ~14,000 Dow.

Thoughts/Ideas/Guesses?

 

[RPM217]

Any guesses as to where's the bottom of the market?
Based on what the market did during the prior threats of ending QE, this seems like the bottom.
And I told myself I was going to buy back in around here.

BUT, it also seems like there's ZERO reason we should be above the 2007 peaks.
If things only went up above the 07 peak because of QE, and QE is gone....
That would mean another 1,000 drop to ~14,000 Dow.

Thoughts/Ideas/Guesses?

I know the answer to your question, however, I'm not allowed to say, as compliance would be all over me

 

[robr]

I checked with my Magic 8 Ball, it came back with "YES". Not sure if that helps you

 

[jond]

I checked with my Magic 8 Ball, it came back with "YES". Not sure if that helps you

lol. Thanks

 

[docjohn]

don't know but at least I have some cash to go shopping once things start to bounce up.

 

[docjohn]

wild ride so far....very choppy for me but nflx and fb have been surprising me.Think I'll buy more C, and amazon ...also doing some bottom feeding on bby and lulu.

 

[RPM217]

wild ride so far....very choppy for me but nflx and fb have been surprising me.Think I'll buy more C, and amazon ...also doing some bottom feeding on bby and lulu.

Be careful Doc, you know what they say about "bottom feeders"!!! I prefer buying stocks that are hitting new highs, than ones that you think are bouncing off of their bottoms!

 

[docjohn]

you are right ,of course, Roger.....but if I am going to take these chances ..better in a bull market.......:redface:

 

[Cincy Jamie]

Went to a quarterly market update seminar at fidelity yesterday. Their opinion on 2014.... The cliffs notes version....Expect a 10% correction. Market will bounce back and perform well this year. Don't buy gold, don't buy bonds. Cheers

 

[sahtt]

Went to a quarterly market update seminar at fidelity yesterday. Their opinion on 2014.... The cliffs notes version....Expect a 10% correction. Market will bounce back and perform well this year. Don't buy gold, don't buy bonds. Cheers

I sort of work for a subsidiary of Fidelity, I wouldn't give two cents for their or any other large institution's "predictions" on what the overall market will do. No one knows.

Bought YPF at $21, O at $37, barely missed my bid on CSG in the mid $7's. Almost pulled the trigger on YUM at $66 the day before earnings but was busy at work and couldn't get to it before market close. Being preoccupied was expensive if you pull up the chart. I think REITs are still a bit over sold and I am comfortable with the yield+potential capital appreciation; as usual price is everything and you must be patient and know the unique risks of each company. Still long POT but won't add to it unless it gets near where I purchased it before @ $30.

Can't think of anything else I've bought recently outside of continuing to invest monthly and quarterly dividends in either a KMP entity (KMR/KMI/et cetera) or LINE/LNCO depending on which one appears cheaper that day. Lately it has been KMI.

 

[nsxot1c]

Be careful Doc, you know what they say about "bottom feeders"!!! I prefer buying stocks that are hitting new highs, than ones that you think are bouncing off of their bottoms!

x2. Oddly enough these stocks continue to go higher!!

 

[Cincy Jamie]

I sort of work for a subsidiary of Fidelity, I wouldn't give two cents for their or any other large institution's "predictions" on what the overall market will do. No one knows.

Bought YPF at $21, O at $37, barely missed my bid on CSG in the mid $7's. Almost pulled the trigger on YUM at $66 the day before earnings but was busy at work and couldn't get to it before market close. Being preoccupied was expensive if you pull up the chart. I think REITs are still a bit over sold and I am comfortable with the yield+potential capital appreciation; as usual price is everything and you must be patient and know the unique risks of each company. Still long POT but won't add to it unless it gets near where I purchased it before @ $30.

Can't think of anything else I've bought recently outside of continuing to invest monthly and quarterly dividends in either a KMP entity (KMR/KMI/et cetera) or LINE/LNCO depending on which one appears cheaper that day. Lately it has been KMI.

FBIOX performed well in 13. Was up almost 50% for the year and my .02 is that it will continue the trend for a few more years as the baby boomer generation gets older. I'm no pro but I'm staying the course as far as this sector is concerned

 

[docjohn]

while the market plateaus I'm seeing some nice strength in esi ( after a crappy earnings call) and sale........

 

[B2FiNiTY]

I wouldn't give two cents for their or any other large institution's "predictions" on what the overall market will do. No one knows.

This is the cold hearted truth. Have conviction in your own due diligence.

 

[docjohn]

loving the action on ftr lately....waiting for rig to come back down.......mck is a steady edy

 

[lazyboyz69]

Thinking YELP should have some potential for some upside.

 

[Yinzer]

Any stock wizards have any feelings on sbux and/or pcln? I ignored a few fractional shares for pcln from 18 years ago and wow did it increase over time but drop recently. Considering selling my 2.012 shares unless there's room to run. Also have held onto some sbux for 20 years and it's had a great run recently...may be time to take some off the table since hogs get slaughtered. I've stayed out of active stock market participation for 8 years so I'm looking for the easy way out if anyone has the same holdings and also an educated opinion, who may be making a move on them soon!

 

[jond]

Does anyone have any good tricks/methods/tools to help with determining the value of a stock?
A lot of what I've read online about valuation seems overly complex, and maybe it needs to be, I don't know.
But wondering if there are secrets I don't know about.

One idea I had was, say with dividend stocks, why not look at the historic dividend rate. If the current dividend is above the mean, it's a buy?
That seems like it would both be effective and simple?

For example, below is the historic dividend yield of Coke.
Even though the P/E is very high, it's yielding a higher than historically average(based on it's own average) dividend rate, so it would be a buy?

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ko+yield

 

[sahtt]

Does anyone have any good tricks/methods/tools to help with determining the value of a stock?
A lot of what I've read online about valuation seems overly complex, and maybe it needs to be, I don't know.
But wondering if there are secrets I don't know about.

One idea I had was, say with dividend stocks, why not look at the historic dividend rate. If the current dividend is above the mean, it's a buy?
That seems like it would both be effective and simple?

For example, below is the historic dividend yield of Coke.
Even though the P/E is very high, it's yielding a higher than historically average(based on it's own average) dividend rate, so it would be a buy?

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ko+yield

jbond, there are a couple additional items you should consider in my opinion. First, what is the dividend payout ratio? For instance, if Coke paid out 10 cents a share in the past on 25 cents of earnings and now pays out 15 cents in dividends on 20 cents of earnings, your analysis will miss a concerning trend if the share price has remained the same. Second, what is the growth rate of earnings in the future going to be? If earnings are not increasing, overall shareholder wealth, regardless of the dividend since the dividend is supported by earnings over the long term, will not increase. While it is not possible to determine this figure exactly, if Coke increases earnings at approximately the rate of inflation (not sure this is true but I bet it's a fairly steady 3-5%) that will aid you in determining how it will perform long term.

There are no "golden" ratios to use because they all use historical data. At some point you are going to have to try to understand the business and forecast cash flow and costs and determine what is left over. If I had to pick one, I'd compare the current P/E ratio to historical P/E ratios for the stock and adjust it for 1) market P/E ratios over time (can use S&P 500) 2) earnings for the individual firm over time. Even that takes some work but it does assist in determining if a stock is a good "value" relative to what the market has paid for its earnings over time. Hope that helps.

- - - Updated - - -

Any stock wizards have any feelings on sbux and/or pcln? I ignored a few fractional shares for pcln from 18 years ago and wow did it increase over time but drop recently. Considering selling my 2.012 shares unless there's room to run. Also have held onto some sbux for 20 years and it's had a great run recently...may be time to take some off the table since hogs get slaughtered. I've stayed out of active stock market participation for 8 years so I'm looking for the easy way out if anyone has the same holdings and also an educated opinion, who may be making a move on them soon!

I actually like SBUX but whew that chart would have me taking a little off the table; certainly around $100. One strategy to augment making these kind of decisions that I use is if I personally believe the firm has a reasonable probability of beating analyst expectations in the upcoming quarter. The reason I mention this is because when stocks go on serious runs as SBUX has, even just meeting expectations can result in 5-10% downdays after it is announced. Watching how the market reacts to other stocks, particularly in the same sector, can help as well. You remember what happened to WFM when it barely beat* expectations a couple quarters ago - massive sell-off. It has since recovered.

 

[Ritesh]

Speaking of Dividends..... What does our Prime collective think of BPT. Please look at it and give me some feedback.

 

[docjohn]

Speaking of Dividends..... What does our Prime collective think of BPT. Please look at it and give me some feedback.

I'm suspect of that yield or any that high......I'm more comfortable with NLY

 

[sahtt]

Speaking of Dividends..... What does our Prime collective think of BPT. Please look at it and give me some feedback.

This will help you make your decision:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/298...ndicates-termination-and-shares-overvaluation

 

[Yinzer]

I actually like SBUX but whew that chart would have me taking a little off the table; certainly around $100. One strategy to augment making these kind of decisions that I use is if I personally believe the firm has a reasonable probability of beating analyst expectations in the upcoming quarter. The reason I mention this is because when stocks go on serious runs as SBUX has, even just meeting expectations can result in 5-10% downdays after it is announced. Watching how the market reacts to other stocks, particularly in the same sector, can help as well. You remember what happened to WFM when it barely beat* expectations a couple quarters ago - massive sell-off. It has since recovered.

Thanks. May take some off the table today before I get slaughtered with the hogs. It's had more than its fair share of up days on lower than avg volume.