skibanker was right...

[queenlives]

seems to me for the past year or so ski kept saying the financial markets were in trouble.

then, iirc, about 6 months (?) back he started saying there would be a global financial meltdown that hadn't been seen in a bazillion years and that it would get really, really difficult.

or am i thinking of someone else who forecasted doom and gloom to the extent we're seeing it today? (which, btw, i don't think is over....)

whomever it was, good see-around-the-corners vision

 

[zahntech]

Google, Peter D Schiff

He predicted all of this like 3 years ago.

There are very interesting videos on you tube of him speaking at banking conventions.

 

[queenlives]

Google, Peter D Schiff

He predicted all of this like 3 years ago.

There are very interesting videos on you tube of him speaking at banking conventions.

is he the prime member who held this position for the past year? i don't remember his name wrt prime.

 

[RPM217]

Google, Peter D Schiff

He predicted all of this like 3 years ago.

There are very interesting videos on you tube of him speaking at banking conventions.

Check out his Uncle Irwin, great guy, but will spend the rest of his life in jail!!!

 

[White92]

or am i thinking of someone else who forecasted doom and gloom to the extent we're seeing it today? (which, btw, i don't think is over....)

whomever it was, good see-around-the-corners vision

No, you're thinking of Nostradamus.

 

[sahtt]

Ski was definitely on. Lots of the guys/sources I read for my daily macroeconomic feed were also extremely confident this would occur. These are not really "stock" guys though so they don't get as much attention and their literature is not very exciting (except to me).

The sad thing is I shorted the **** out of financials for the first year of this calamity and underestimated its full extent. I slowly let go of my hedges and was only 25% hedged once the bailout was announced. The only real losses in my long term account are since that time period.

This will continue until the housing market stabilizes or we can accurately estimate when that time will be and it's generally accepted.

However, if we delay that by propping up the housing markets and fight its return to the historical mean, we could have decades of what we are currently experiencing. Not to beat a dead horse, but we are in a very similar situation as Japan was before their stock market fell from 39k to 7k over a 15 year period. Fortunately ours isn't nearly that bad but we have our own set of variables to work with.

 

[matteni]

I'm no Nostradamus but take a look at my post from 1 year ago.

Then watch the video that predicted this several years ago. I went from 0% cash to 40% cash back then. Too bad I didn't listen to myself more then I did and get more into cash. Figured with 25 years to go I could ride out most anything that happened.

 

[queenlives]

I'm no Nostradamus but take a look at my post from 1 year ago.

Then watch the video that predicted this several years ago. I went from 0% cash to 40% cash back then. Too bad I didn't listen to myself more then I did and get more into cash. Figured with 25 years to go I could ride out most anything that happened.

dunno... you sure seem like nostrawhozits to me

 

[matteni]

dunno... you sure seem like nostrawhozits to me

:biggrin:

Yep - do as I say - not as I do.

On the bright side I have an aspiring career ahead of me in politics!

:wink:

 

[Sig]

While there are many causes that got us to this point.... just like 9-11, this was many years in the making.

Here is one of the first items that led us down this path.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpa...933A0575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1

Btw, I love to see all these yahoos in Congress rip apart Wall Street and their mistakes... when it was they who legislated the begtinning of the credit crisis. Dick Fuld is a jacka$$, but he pales in comparison to Nancy Pelosi, Barney Frank, Chucky Rangel and the other over-the-top champions of eliminating credit worthiness for real estate lending. On the flip side of that coin, there are plenty of guilty Congressman that fostered the rise of the shadowy securitization market that had the transparency of a brick wall.

 

[matteni]

Not so much that I disagree with some of your post but the first item IMO was in 1913 when Wilson signed into law the Federal Reserve Act. It created the banking cartel in charge of our money system.

You can add to the pre-1999 list (in no particular order):

- the drop of the gold standard,
- the fractional lending standards that went from 9-1 to 30-1 or more,
- the people rating the junk that allowed it to be leveraged,
- the insane push to minimize inflation above all else,
- the press and "if it bleeds - it leads" mentality,
- people buying homes and other large capital items they had no way to afford,

just to name a few.

Like any disaster of this magnitude it takes many things simultaneously coming to fruition to create this type of mess. People looking for scapegoats and someone to blame can look in any direction and they will be partially right.

 

[nsxotic911]

Here's a good video and I'd love to see a defense by Danny or Democrats..

I'll agree with you guys with the blame of Bush & Republicans for Iraq, but Democrats & Obama deserve the blame for this.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/_MGT_cSi7Rs&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/_MGT_cSi7Rs&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/exxVZTKq1vA&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/exxVZTKq1vA&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/UVVVzEKauzY&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/UVVVzEKauzY&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

I feel a combination of...
Obama and Dems are getting away with murder here and may be what McCain will lose the election for. I guess this may be payback for Iraq.. <sigh>

 

[queenlives]

so, to get back on thread topic, wasn't it ski who said boldly that the banking / financial system would near collapse?

knock, knock, knock - ski, you there?

 

[Vega$ NSX]

In my office I got the nickname Chicken Little because for about 1.5 years now I've been forecasting doom and gloom. Everyone would laugh at me because they kept saying I thought the sky was falling. Other than 401K and IRA's I stopped investing in the market and stockpiling huge sums of cash. If you followed my other threads, that is where I've been recommending maxing out FDIC insured high yielding savings accounts (like Countrywide's savings link). People would poke fun of me by saying asking how I got into bed with all of the cash stuffed under my matress. Now I'm sitting on a quarter million of completely insured, fully liquid cash, earning about 3.4% feeling pretty good about any upcoming storms.

Mark my words here. I'm also beefing up securtiy, firepower, ammunition and self protective devices, in addition to asset and identity protection. Crime will go up to epic proportions. Not today or not tomorrow, but it will. It will be the fallout from these hard economic times.

Have a nice day! :smile:

 

[matteni]

I'm also beefing up securtiy, firepower, ammunition and self protective devices, in addition to asset and identity protection. Crime will go up to epic proportions. Not today or not tomorrow, but it will. It will be the fallout from these hard economic times.

If you truly feel that way you should buy a bunker in some remote corner of the world and fill it with food/water and kill anyone that knows or brought you there.

If there is a collapse to the level where criminals rule, starving mobs are attacking your home, there is no society, and no government left your "personal security" won't mean a thing.

Of course - your currency won't mean a thing either since there will be a new dark ages and only barter and feudal living will emerge but hey - stock up and stimulate the economy.

Guess I better buy some stock in Remington and Smith and Wesson.

 

[sahtt]

In my office I got the nickname Chicken Little because for about 1.5 years now I've been forecasting doom and gloom. Everyone would laugh at me because they kept saying I thought the sky was falling. Other than 401K and IRA's I stopped investing in the market and stockpiling huge sums of cash. If you followed my other threads, that is where I've been recommending maxing out FDIC insured high yielding savings accounts (like Countrywide's savings link). People would poke fun of me by saying asking how I got into bed with all of the cash stuffed under my matress. Now I'm sitting on a quarter million of completely insured, fully liquid cash, earning about 3.4% feeling pretty good about any upcoming storms.

Mark my words here. I'm also beefing up securtiy, firepower, ammunition and self protective devices, in addition to asset and identity protection. Crime will go up to epic proportions. Not today or not tomorrow, but it will. It will be the fallout from these hard economic times.

Have a nice day! :smile:

That 250k is going to buy a lot of Ferrari's when $hit hits the fan.

 

[White92]

If you truly feel that way you should buy a bunker in some remote corner of the world and fill it with food/water and kill anyone that knows or brought you there.

If there is a collapse to the level where criminals rule, starving mobs are attacking your home, there is no society, and no government left your "personal security" won't mean a thing.

Of course - your currency won't mean a thing either since there will be a new dark ages and only barter and feudal living will emerge but hey - stock up and stimulate the economy.

Guess I better buy some stock in Remington and Smith and Wesson.

Might sound crazy, but I could definitely see this happening.

How many people have 100% faith in the government right now? How many people think they could do a better job and take things into their own hands?

Look what happened after hurricane Katrina. Have we all forgotten the stories of people being raped and murdered on the street? In the shelters? The ambulances that were shot at while trying to help people? Sure it was an isolated area, but this is now a global issue.

A completed collapse of the U.S. market will ripple through the entire world. Our currency would be worth next to nothing, our military is spread throughout the world. Others will prey on the weak and if things got bad enough, that could be us.

I understand this is the worst of the worst extreme example, but it could happen.

 

[Factor X Motorsports]

Mark my words here. I'm also beefing up securtiy, firepower, ammunition and self protective devices, in addition to asset and identity protection. Crime will go up to epic proportions. Not today or not tomorrow, but it will. It will be the fallout from these hard economic times.

Have a nice day! :smile:

B,

You scare me, but if the shit hits the fan I am moving my fam in with you:biggrin: Seriously though in Vegas X-mas is usually high crime season, I cant imagine what its going to be like this year

My brother warned my about a year and a half ago while working for a major lender. Bought up quite a few puts in a few of lenders and backers and they worked out quite well. The hardest thing was buying the leap puts on Wamu, I just could not believe such a large institution could get in that much trouble but I thank him everyday for making me do that trade.

B, you should take a look into buying some rentals in Vegas. Were getting about a 12-15% cap.

Nice job Ski on making the call quite sometime ago!

 

[jond]

So how low will it go?
Anyone think 8,999 is in the cards?

 

[710]

so, to get back on thread topic, wasn't it ski who said boldly that the banking / financial system would near collapse?

knock, knock, knock - ski, you there?

yes, he certainly said that. he was spot on.

 

[SilverStone05]

yep. i distinctly remember him telling me that the downturn in the financial system was going to be abysmal.

 

[White92]

So how low will it go?
Anyone think 8,999 is in the cards?

Anyone care to guess what would happen at that mark? What about the 7,000 range?

 

[queenlives]

So how low will it go?
Anyone think 8,999 is in the cards?

yes. i think it'll go to 8,500 - if only for a while.

 

[sahtt]

Anyone care to guess what would happen at that mark? What about the 7,000 range?

As a securities trader, here's a rough analysis-

The 2000 recession brought about a decline in the S&P from 1500 to 800. We reached almost the exact same figure of 1550 before falling to 996 as we currently stand. The Dow is not overly important. We will see a "V" bottom, whether it holds medium term no one knows.

However, the real losses were in the Nasdaq due to the tech bubble, the DOW and S&P fared well comparatively. The S&P is a broader index and has a large share of financials. Unlike the 2000 crash, all major indexes will decline drastically as has been the case.

If we get near it (say within 100pts on the S&P 500), we will probably test the 50% retracement level of ~750. If we break through that, very little is out of the question. A horde of people will sell if we fail the 50% retracement, including myself to a certain extent. Reason being after that there is no "exit" point of reference. It's difficult to balance your risk vs reward. The extent of the current crisis should see a minimum 50% retracement.

The one major factor is government. They are going to blow cash and manipulate whatever they can to keep the system afloat. Australia already got the party going with the interest cuts. We will probably follow, as will Europe who is in worse shape then we are.

 

[Ryanmcd2]

Dow 7800 - 8000 in the next 3 months.