skibanker was right...

I don't know about Ski... but he wasn't the only one predicting doom and gloom for the past year... these are my posts from the Stock Market thread through the first 6 pages... :biggrin:

7-31-07:
I share a slightly more pessimistic view of the market. This thing has been grossly overbought for months now and we went from an uptrend to a period of sideways market action with high volatility for the past two months or so.

Yes it 14,000. It hit it and toyed with it for close to a week, failed to break it and finally broke out of its sideways coil yesterday to the downside. I understand the buy the dip mentality. Most traders operating now days have been so used to buying every dip they do it without thinking because it has worked for them every time in the past. They are conditioned to do the same thing without thinking or regard to the big picture here.

Why are we up in the stratosphere? Did we get some kind of great market driving news that i'm unaware of? Everything i've heard has been quite to the contrary. More than that, T-Notes look very weak and with the Fed not changing interest rates for the time being, that means the T-Notes are going to be compensating for this one their own by jacking up interest rates on mortgages which should only compound the problems in the subprime market and kill off what buying pressure there is in the housing market with higher interest rates.


Trading through the last days was unlike anything i've ever seen. Crazy volatility, crazy ranges, but more importantly, instead of buy programs kicking in on every dip, there were sell programs slapping every lift upwards. Sell pressure on EVERYTHING today.

I'm not saying don't buy, and i'm not saying sell, i'm just saying step back and let see how this unfolds before deciding to do anything. You know how you kill an account? You buy a falling knife, over and over and over and over.
Click to expand...

8-4-07:
You know that image I posted earlier last week? It was holding a support level trying to decide if this was a correction or a selloff. Friday the market decided in its afternoon selloff after toying with the level for the entire week. Hold onto your hats boys... THIS IS NOT A TIME TO BUY "BARGAINS". Its gonna get bumpy this week!
Click to expand...

9-2-07:
I think the calm before the storm is coming to an end...

The big money on wall street has been quietly heading for the exits over the past month. The dumb money has been duped into thinking they're buying a bargain.

1. Fed won't do a damn thing. Take a look back at the depression in '28... the fed actually tightened credit and raised rates going into the depression. Keep in mind the fed is more a private bank than anything here... You won't hear that on CNBC, but do a little digging on the institution. If its not good for their bottom line, they won't do it.

2. Dow will be at/around 10k by the end of December. This isn't doomsday irationalism, but rather a prudent, rational, and logical look at the big picture. This storm has been brewing for years now, prepare for it. This isn't a pullback, its not a correction, and its certainly not a dip. Welcome the bear market; its been awhile, but its back and about to prove it with fury. I think we'll see at least a 1000 points off the Dow by the end of September.
Click to expand...

9-2-07:
My long-term investments are in a full cash position and have been since the end of July.

I'm unwilling at this point to hold any positions overnight because quite frankly things are way too volatile right now. Take option expiry this month. The Fed came in and did its little smoke-and-mirrors- dance with their discount rate on Option X Friday. Put/Call fluctuation's had to have been upwards of 500% percent that day. And frankly, thousands of options traders lost all of their money and more that Friday. So right now, all I do is my intra-day trades with the S&P 500.

Institutional money playing the downside? You bet! That is one of the great things about being a daytrader. You really get a feeling for the eb and flow of the market and more importantly the institutional buy/sell programs that are blatantly shoved into the charts once or twice a day. For the past 6 months there was a constant bid under the market, everything got bought, and the norm was buy programs all the time (short little 2-5 minute upbursts of 3-8 points).

In the past month there has been a violent shift leaning towards sell programs. The invincible bid is no longer under the market and when programs fire off it is almost always to the downside. So yea, I KNOW institutions are playing the downside. Its so blatant its hard to miss!
Click to expand...

9-4-07:
desktop.jpg
Click to expand...

10-17-07:
Anyone else feeling an impending implosion growing closer here? I think we've seen the end... give us a disappointing earnings report from any of our tech or momo stocks and were done. Double top held perfectly in the ES, indicators are rolling, bearish indicators are running rampid through the charts.

Keep in mind people earnings estimates for the S&P's have gone from 8% to NOTHING in the past two weeks.

I know not many agree with me, but its just my opinion and analysis... the fed smoke and mirrors are starting to clear, people are realizing the lack of logic behind the last rally, and just give us a catalyst like Google missing on earnings and its over.

I think we'll grind lower for a bit here, but expect some big down moves within a couple weeks.
Click to expand...


:tongue::tongue::tongue:
 
osugrad97 said:
The people I know that bet on this stuff say 7000 is not out of the question.
Click to expand...

we sure seem to be heading in this direction, don't we? and there's a tiny voice inside me that worries about <6k, too. (i've asked the doc to adjust my meds, though ;)

daedalus, good posts you pointed us to, but the specific ones i was thinking of were (iirc) ski's who said, (only slightly paraphrased):

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/w91-GMc3j7I&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/w91-GMc3j7I&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

1:50 in to the video is the key segment wrt my post.
 
Last edited:
...dogs and cats living together?...………………………………oh shit.
 
Last edited:
If you want to see once in a lifetime chaos, just wait and see if we fail the 50% retractment. Everyone is bearish today, we could end up. That or we hit the circuit breakers, this is friday and you are going to have to do something.
 
sahtt said:
If you want to see once in a lifetime chaos, just wait and see if we fail the 50% retractment. Everyone is bearish today, we could end up. That or we hit the circuit breakers, this is friday and you are going to have to do something.
Click to expand...

45% retracement about 15 mins ago. We got damn near close to the black hole.
 
sahtt said:
If you want to see once in a lifetime chaos, just wait and see if we fail the 50% retractment. Everyone is bearish today, we could end up. That or we hit the circuit breakers, this is friday and you are going to have to do something.
Click to expand...

Yup... you bring up a good point. i mean if you were an investor would you want to hold through the weekend after this week? Psshh... i'd be dumping like it was my business. Could get dicy into the close.
 
Yes, it was me, and yes I was 100% correct (unfortunately). I certainly wasn't alone in saying "things are going to get bad" in the past year, or that there could be a financial meltdown. Most knowledgeable Wall St people have recognized the "hot potato" nature of high finance, but knowing when the music is about to stop is what separates the investing men from the boys (a la George Soros) or, alternatively, avoiding exposure to the problem in the first place (a la Warren Buffett).

I'll write more -- things are busy now that I'm back in the States and am setting up my own shop.

ski
 
And now, as seemingly nice as it would be to pat myself (lowercase :wink:) on the back (for this and other prophetic posts), and say "Wow, Ski, you have a gift" i know better. "i" had nothing to do with it, and "i" have absolutely no skill/talent/knowledge/luck/foresight/intelligence whatsoever... :wink::smile:

But somebody Good does! And He's right here on NSX Prime! :biggrin::biggrin:
 
Last edited:
(Red Hot Chilli Peppers - Can't Stop, on By the Way)

...
Music the great communicator
Use two sticks to make it in the nature
I'll get you into penetration
The gender of a generation
The birth of every other nation
Worth your weight the gold of meditation
This chapter's going to be a close one
Smoke rings I know your going to blow one
All on a spaceship persevering
Use my hands for everything but steering
Can't stop the spirits when they need you

:wink: God bless and be Good! :smile:
 
(continued)


________(chorus)______
The world I love
The tears I drop
To be part of
The wave can't stop
Ever wonder if it's all for you
The world I love
The trains I hop
To be part of
The wave can't stop
Come and tell me when it's time to
_______________________

Wait a minute I'm passing out
Win or lose just like you
Far more shocking
Than anything i ever knew
How about you
10 more reasons
Why i need somebody new just like you
Far more shocking than anything I ever knew
Right on cue

......
Can't stop the spirits when they need you
This life is more than just a read thru




:eek::eek::eek:
 
Ski_Banker said:
And now, as seemingly nice as it would be to pat myself (lowercase :wink:) on the back (for this and other prophetic posts), and say "Wow, Ski, you have a gift" i know better. "i" had nothing to do with it, and "i" have absolutely no skill/talent/knowledge/luck/foresight/intelligence whatsoever... :wink::smile:

But somebody Good does! And He's right here on NSX Prime! :biggrin::biggrin:
Click to expand...



PLEASE READ THIS! Read this again and again and again until the message actually hits home... :eek:

i "Ski_Banker" am NOTHING without God. And neither are you!
 
The question I have is who made money on this? :) I know my brother is up 26% so far this year and I am up a good bit as well.

I say we see 10k 10,500 then we may get some selling but I am still long until the fed rates go up and / or they stop printing money. Also I love how China is putting up gold so hard due to all the US debt they own and are using gold to hedge the low $ lol
 

Similar threads

vivanshah
I've been a bit busy the past few months, but finally got around to posting this
2
Replies
25
Views
5K
Superhatch
Superhatch
Yinzer
Got my GPW coupe last month and loving it.
2 3
Replies
54
Views
12K
JLCoolman
JLCoolman
ozone
ozone's 2004 RY Build
Replies
22
Views
6K
ozone
ozone
NSX69
Acura: 25 Years
Replies
7
Views
3K
condumbwerkz
condumbwerkz
White92
How Ferrari Spins
2
Replies
43
Views
5K
SFNSXguy
SFNSXguy
Back
Top