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How 'bout that stock market?
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
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Ouch...i was waiting for this thread to be revived with some nasty news.
I feel those Wall Street money managers alreay know the economy will be in recession in the near future and is using every chance they get to slam the market ... If the market keeps going down the way it has been, could pose some good buying opportunities if you're a long term investor. When I say long term I mean if you can hold for a least 6 months to 1 year.
Hope some of you cought these shorts.
I've been making decent money shorting Homebuilders and Lenders. For a while the Nasdaq has looked to me like it's forming a (bearish) Head and Shoulders pattern (look at a one year chart). The Dow, S&P500, NYA and Nasdaq are all 16-19% off their recent highs. As the definition of a Bear Market is 20% off the high, I'd say we're pretty darn close. The good news is that Bear Markets usually only last 9 months on average. As for the Homebuilders, their recovery looks to be 2009 at the earliest. 
John C.
John C.
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CNBC's Cramer Friday 1/18-"Two thousand point drop in two weeks." due to Muni Bond Insurers tanking.
<iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/22734052#22734052" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/22734052#22734052" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22706231/site/14081545
That video is the one that blows my hair back. I cannot believe they allowed him to say that stuff on air (i'm sure they didn't intend it) but I can't believe they let it be broadcast. I'm sure he could lose his job for that... I mean, he told the honest to god truth. I give the man huge kudos for that... I didn't think he had it in him.
I'm impressed!
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Japan is down 2% in two hours.
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
"Can someone in a nutshell explain to me what some of the previous posts on the tickerforum are discussing. The insurance agencies you talk about, are they mortgage insurance companies that guarantee a return on a default if someone is paying PMI on a loan over 80% of appraised value? I've been seeing posts about muni bond implications, etc, and just trying to wrap my head around what the difficulties for these insurers exactly means. Thanks"
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=24778
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
"Can someone in a nutshell explain to me what some of the previous posts on the tickerforum are discussing. The insurance agencies you talk about, are they mortgage insurance companies that guarantee a return on a default if someone is paying PMI on a loan over 80% of appraised value? I've been seeing posts about muni bond implications, etc, and just trying to wrap my head around what the difficulties for these insurers exactly means. Thanks"
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=24778
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-3%
The Gold Confiscation Of April 5, 1933
http://www.the-privateer.com/1933-gold-confiscation.html
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The Gold Confiscation Of April 5, 1933
http://www.the-privateer.com/1933-gold-confiscation.html
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Ski_Banker
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China and India finally broke today.
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Global Market Meltdown!
Germany: -7.2%
France: -6.8%
England: -5.5%
Hong Kong: -5.5%
Japan: -3.9%
Good day for the Bears! Wonder how tomorrow will shape up (or down) for the US market? Time will tell.
Germany: -7.2%
France: -6.8%
England: -5.5%
Hong Kong: -5.5%
Japan: -3.9%
Good day for the Bears! Wonder how tomorrow will shape up (or down) for the US market? Time will tell.
thx for passing on the cramer link. as with many things in life, it's been easy for many people, industries and leaders to be in denial about the state of the (US) economy but my feeling is the sh*t's about to hit the fan in a very large and uncomfortable manner for people. it'll be interesting to see how the market does over the next few weeks.
(edit: after i typed ^^^i visited bigcharts.com and saw this, all legal mumbo jumbo applies for bigcharts & market watch):
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...8C6-8303-18EE41CA5D1C}&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&
U.S. stock futures point to major decline on re-open
Markets in Europe end day in bear market territory
By Steve Goldstein & Sarah Turner, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:46 p.m. EST Jan. 21, 2008
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LONDON (MarketWatch) -- If futures contracts traded on a day when U.S. stocks weren't even due to open are anything near accurate, then markets will be in for a major decline on Tuesday, with concerns about bond insurers and the health of financial institutions dragging markets lower.
March contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 522 points lower to 11,584 as of 11:30 a.m. Eastern.
Futures contract don't move in complete lockstep to the underlying indexes, but by comparison, the Dow industrials fell 382 points on Sept. 20, 2001, just days after the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers, and by 387 points on Aug. 9, 2007, shortly after the recent credit crunch first emerged."
(edit: after i typed ^^^i visited bigcharts.com and saw this, all legal mumbo jumbo applies for bigcharts & market watch):
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...8C6-8303-18EE41CA5D1C}&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&
U.S. stock futures point to major decline on re-open
Markets in Europe end day in bear market territory
By Steve Goldstein & Sarah Turner, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:46 p.m. EST Jan. 21, 2008
PrintPrint EmailE-mail Subscribe to RSSRSS DisableDisable Live Quotes
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- If futures contracts traded on a day when U.S. stocks weren't even due to open are anything near accurate, then markets will be in for a major decline on Tuesday, with concerns about bond insurers and the health of financial institutions dragging markets lower.
March contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 522 points lower to 11,584 as of 11:30 a.m. Eastern.
Futures contract don't move in complete lockstep to the underlying indexes, but by comparison, the Dow industrials fell 382 points on Sept. 20, 2001, just days after the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers, and by 387 points on Aug. 9, 2007, shortly after the recent credit crunch first emerged."
agreed.
It's gonna be bad. I am already down 10-12% on some of my longs. I am out on all my swing trades and up a bit on my puts and shorts. Most of my calls are worthless at this point.
agreed.
i've done some surfing to major market reporting sites and it looks pretty thumpy. i mentioned to my wife a few weeks ago i expected it to hit the low 11's, but after seeing cramer's bit (which, no doubt has been viewed by millions who buy into what he's saying), i suspect it'll head down where he's mentioning... and perhaps / likely past that and then "normalize" at some new level. (i'm not the trader / sophisticated investor that a number of people claim to be, so have to take what i read / view at face value then factor in some real life experiences i've had.)
it may well feel like '01 / '02 enron time again pretty soon.
<sigh>
Ski_Banker
Suspended
Hal, this should feel quite a bit worse than 2000/01/02 Enron/Tech Bust. These are very very real issues, not just impacting 1 economy (the U.S.) or segment (Housing).
I haven't posted in this thread since last summer, when things "got exciting" initially. I believe my thoughts, at the time, were -- nobody really knows, if the (then issue) subprime credit crunch would spillover into the real economy.
Well. It has.
Funny thing is, developed market stocks are super cheap right now even discounted for peak cycle earnings. That's not going to change for a long time now. Hunker down.
yup, i think it's hold your cash a bit longer.
on a related vein, i wouldn't be surprised to begin hearing reports from over-extended owners of non-essential / expensive toys - cars, boats, motorcycles, etc - that they've been stolen as a means of insurance retiring the debt.
challenging times ahead, i think.
I'm just thankful I've been expecting this, though it has not been by chance. The majority of my short holdings/puts have been reduced to 20% of the original size. I've been too fortunate to get greedy. At 11,500 I'm starting small long positions in companies without debt and no need for heavy financing, they will be the first to rebound, whether that takes days or quarters. The asian markets will be heavily oversold and it'll be easy to make money off the volatility if you even roughly know how to do it. I'm expecting a rebound on the Hang Seng at 20k back to about 24k before another collapse. I'll be playing that and commodities, specifically silver/gold until there is blood on the street and the big buying opportunities come foward. The only reason you can't tell now is because we are still in the dividend cutting/take over portion of this event. BAC's buyout of CFC didn't help that stock much anyways, for example.
Wearing my 5-point harness this morning. Action should be quite interesting.
Your boy Cramer has been acting a fool so far this morning. It actually gives me piece of mind to see everyone including him freaking out... we may actually be feeling our way towards a bottom. I will hold onto my dry powder for a while longer, but my sense is that there will be some great buying opportunities in the coming days/weeks/months.
75 basis points is not the end of the FOMC moves either. The second half of 2008 should benefit from these moves.
Your boy Cramer has been acting a fool so far this morning. It actually gives me piece of mind to see everyone including him freaking out... we may actually be feeling our way towards a bottom. I will hold onto my dry powder for a while longer, but my sense is that there will be some great buying opportunities in the coming days/weeks/months.
75 basis points is not the end of the FOMC moves either. The second half of 2008 should benefit from these moves.
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