thx for the info and, duly noted.
How 'bout that stock market?
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
- Start date
Ahhh so we were unknowing subjects in an investment study,,well I want some of your earnings:wink:
I like to read what other Primers are doing. I have thought about stock picks a couple of times but decided against it. This time around I will post up one of my picks that am pleased with. It is BGC. General Cable. I was first introduced to BGC back in the late 90's while installing there cable. They had a line of CAT 5 cable called dream line that was almost impossible to kink. This was very important as most of the time I was working alone. Back in 2004 thier stock as ~$10 and I wished I could have invested then. I watched as it climbed and climbed over the years and then watched it rapid declined. I had a little money saved up still so I jumped. Some of you all probably spend what I had to invest on dinner, but thats ok. We all got to start somewhere right? So picked them up back in Oct or Nov 08 for ~$17 a share. (man that was pricey I thought.) I, personally, have been happy with its performance over the past few months.
Another stock I picked up on a suggestion and it was much cheaper than BGC at the time. I am not so pleased with that purchase. I guess I should learn to go with what you know and what you feel comfortable with. I do my own work on my cars so that way its my fault if it does not work out. They same will be true with my stock purchases after I get rid of my other one. I will still listen and consider what others have to say, but never again will I buy cause someone thinks I should.
With all that said thanks for the some of the tips Prime, I enjoy reading what everone is doing.
PS - I am still looking for a penny stock that I can invest in and then sell when I make 10, 20 or 30 fold my money back. :biggrin:
Another stock I picked up on a suggestion and it was much cheaper than BGC at the time. I am not so pleased with that purchase. I guess I should learn to go with what you know and what you feel comfortable with. I do my own work on my cars so that way its my fault if it does not work out. They same will be true with my stock purchases after I get rid of my other one. I will still listen and consider what others have to say, but never again will I buy cause someone thinks I should.
With all that said thanks for the some of the tips Prime, I enjoy reading what everone is doing.
PS - I am still looking for a penny stock that I can invest in and then sell when I make 10, 20 or 30 fold my money back. :biggrin:
All is well on my front.. I've been buying AAPL under 100 steadily and YUM under 30 steadily. Took some off of both the day after earnings.
High growth->clean balance sheet->fair valuation->success.
If you look in the dumpster for stocks (penny stocks, GM, etc.) you will probably end up with a portfolio of garbage.
Still trading mainly berkshire at work.
High growth->clean balance sheet->fair valuation->success.
If you look in the dumpster for stocks (penny stocks, GM, etc.) you will probably end up with a portfolio of garbage.
Still trading mainly berkshire at work.
I worked with one of their medium level accounts and they couldn't get rid of their General Cable if they wanted to give it away. They are a high end producer that isn't needed unless rig counts are exploding IMO. That's only for the off shore oil business, no idea on the rest of it.
Buying on suggestions is difficult to do accurately. What they have in mind and you have in mind is never exactly the same and often completely different. These days there are ZERO companies that are simply "BUYS". It's stocks and PRICES. AAPL at 85 is a BUY. AAPL at 139 is a SELL. BP at 38 is a BUY. BP at 48 is a SELL. etc.
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I'm reading its all based off swine flu fears...
A few guys on the floor had alerts set and shorted it when it broke 20. I see every single stock that does something like that and this one was unusual even among those. Supposedly there was a 1,000,000 share offer that was just destroying the bids, 2 million additional shares were sold in the panic. The news was good so I don't know what the deal is but somebody is doing something illegal.
We talked to the exchanges and they decided not to break any trades so it wasn't a black box. Arca decides not to break it right away and they are usually the most susceptible to hedge funds etc. getting them to break trades that go bad. A friend that sits right behind me is stuck in a few hundred shares he bout at 9 and change. Halted until tomorrow, that blows if you are stuck in it. He stayed after the close to see if he could get out on some inets or something.
Damn thing is up to 25+ in AH trading. Everyone will probably get out of most of it pre-market tomorrow. I was about to take 500 shares just before it haulted, SOB!
Just hit a nice slow quote on CFL and though of you Ski. Went from 27.50 to 28.80 on one large market order. 280k shares.
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Ski_Banker
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Yeah, another new high today for CFL. They released Q1 earnings this morning which show nice continued growth. Mgmt's outlook for the rest of 2009 is basically more slow 'n steady subscriber growth, and the market has reacted positively to that although I haven't.
I really expected to see an acceleration of revenue growth in the quarter and outlook, and that hasn't happened. So far, at least. So, while my opinion on the shares being tremendously undervalued still holds (trades at 4x run-rate EBITDA which is absurd for this stable, growing business), I don't necessarily think there will be a ginormous run up in the stock. Fair value is in the $50 range but the multiple expansion you'd see if growth was accelerating isn't gonna happen I don't think. Now...I gotta figure out where I went wrong...:redface:
Ski_Banker
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FYI, I've sold a substantial portion of Napco Security (NSSC). Breakeven. They had a wheels-came-off quarter, and their outlook was pretty equally dismal. This company has some real underlying issues, and even if the security *products* market picks up, it will take a while before NSSC grows into its current valuation. Not worth the wait and it could very well be a zero if things keep going the way they did recently.
Soros bought more Brinks Home Security though. It's notably absent from 100s of other long-short hedge funds, as of the 3/31/09 13F-HR filing -- actually a good thing. Interest in, and awareness of, the stock can only increase....
Soros bought more Brinks Home Security though. It's notably absent from 100s of other long-short hedge funds, as of the 3/31/09 13F-HR filing -- actually a good thing. Interest in, and awareness of, the stock can only increase....
Ski_Banker
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Someone bought ~1.2 million shares during a 10 minute period on Wednesday. That's a *huge* trade for this stock, and with a "I gotta get in immediately" mentality, apparently.
Yep I saw that one too. A few guys shorted the top and held it over night for a nice gain but I don't do those sorts of plays. Smith and Wesson has had a hell of a run too.
Nice little pop today:smile:
Ski_Banker
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Nice job!
You know, I didn't think much of the Tata idea when you first posted it. My thoughts were "Upstart Indian motor company, that I don't know anything about in terms of valuation." I should've thought more seriously about it though (still haven't looked into valuation -- what matters ultimately). As I've written before -- INDIA is the next big economy. Definitely not China, and not Brazil. It has a billion *very* capitalist oriented young people, and the seeds have been planted in the last 10, 20 years for India to emerge as a superpower. Today's election results will only help to further its positive trajectory. Inexpensive, domestically branded/designed/produced automobiles like Tata will be an important part of India's growth story.
Am I invested in India (or other EMs) now? Nope. This U.S. economic decline ain't over -not by a longshot- and when the decline finally stops, it will be followed by many years of economic malaise IMHO (think 1970s). This won't bode well, in the near term, for emerging markets. But you can bet your ass that when I think the U.S. malaise is deepest, and valuations are cheapest, I'll be looking to go long in India in a big way. I only wish I could do leveraged private equity there....
Ski_Banker
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Possibly true - interesting article in June 2009 Car and Driver about their new Nano model. Article cites expected initial orders of 500,000.
I am by no means an expert,as evidenced by my past performance of buy high and cry on the way down, holding on to losersI have been watching two stocks that I think are well priced at these levels and they seem to offer a solid product. zixi and nhwk.
I still think zixi has a solid future esp. in the Obama era of cost saving in health care.With increasing utilization of the electronic medical record ,zix has a nice encription solution for secure Email and possibly E-prescription.Keep an eye on it.
- Joined
- 1 September 2001
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- 4,123
??? WTF ???
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1128608144&play=1
Here's the full dialog. . .
Dennis: (Intro remarks...) The credit markets thawing is going to be helping the stock markets. What do you think, Jeff?
Macke: I have no idea, Dennis. I'm going to talk to you like a child. If you understand what I'm saying, just say yeah.
Dennis: Okay. Yeah.
Macke: Yeah. See, you're what happens when you're trying to talk to car people at like a half an hour ago. I dismissed these people as idiots years ago. And now that I'm trying to finally engage them, they have no idea what I'm talking about.
Dennis: Okay.
Macke: Yeah. And so it's either a really simple thing and you're kind of tweaked but you get this joke which I'm assuming 90 percent of you does but you're just coming off the rails or, B, you don't and you're just even more confused now. I'm trying to be the voice of reason guiding you to the light.
Dennis: Well, just tell me next week or this week, markets up or markets down?
Macke: I don't know because I've honestly dismissed this entire game as idiocy the second I started talking to car people. That only occurred to me this morning, which is either really super-enigmatic to you or you're staring to feel the Band-aid come off.
Dennis: All right. Let's go to Fritz . . . .
Macke: (Giggles)
(On-point commentaries from other two guests.)
Dennis: Do you think we've got to see an improvement in jobless (sic) before the markets can really roll?
Macke: Okay. Again I'm going to talk to you like a child. Nod if you're with me.
Dennis: Nod if you're with me. I have no idea what you're saying.
Macke: I'm saying that you're talking to people who seem crazy. And either I'm a tremendous relief to you or this is a really elaborate joke on me. But I'm thinking you're smart enough to get this joke at this point 34 minutes into the show when you've started talking to auto people that you've gone crazy. Nod. Yeah. And Fritz --
Dennis: (Something I didn't get.) ... raising capital. You don't want to cheer for that?
Macke: No. I'm going to take one last stab at this, Dennis. Who knows.
I dismissed Bank of America as lunatics about eight months ago, and I seemed to understand the world then. But now either lunatics are in the game.
I don't know where they're playing.
I've tried for the last three hours to communicate with Bank of America on TV, because apparently either I've gotten off the bus in Crazytown, but I'm much happier just trying to get them to speak to me in five words or less.
Dennis: A trader friend of mine says that these markets, they're here to make you feel foolish. So congratulations. I think all --
Macke: I'm going to go with crazy. Yes or no?
Dennis: Thanks a lot.
Macke: I'm trying to keep playing.
Dennis: (Thanks other guests.)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1128608144&play=1
Here's the full dialog. . .
Dennis: (Intro remarks...) The credit markets thawing is going to be helping the stock markets. What do you think, Jeff?
Macke: I have no idea, Dennis. I'm going to talk to you like a child. If you understand what I'm saying, just say yeah.
Dennis: Okay. Yeah.
Macke: Yeah. See, you're what happens when you're trying to talk to car people at like a half an hour ago. I dismissed these people as idiots years ago. And now that I'm trying to finally engage them, they have no idea what I'm talking about.
Dennis: Okay.
Macke: Yeah. And so it's either a really simple thing and you're kind of tweaked but you get this joke which I'm assuming 90 percent of you does but you're just coming off the rails or, B, you don't and you're just even more confused now. I'm trying to be the voice of reason guiding you to the light.
Dennis: Well, just tell me next week or this week, markets up or markets down?
Macke: I don't know because I've honestly dismissed this entire game as idiocy the second I started talking to car people. That only occurred to me this morning, which is either really super-enigmatic to you or you're staring to feel the Band-aid come off.
Dennis: All right. Let's go to Fritz . . . .
Macke: (Giggles)
(On-point commentaries from other two guests.)
Dennis: Do you think we've got to see an improvement in jobless (sic) before the markets can really roll?
Macke: Okay. Again I'm going to talk to you like a child. Nod if you're with me.
Dennis: Nod if you're with me. I have no idea what you're saying.
Macke: I'm saying that you're talking to people who seem crazy. And either I'm a tremendous relief to you or this is a really elaborate joke on me. But I'm thinking you're smart enough to get this joke at this point 34 minutes into the show when you've started talking to auto people that you've gone crazy. Nod. Yeah. And Fritz --
Dennis: (Something I didn't get.) ... raising capital. You don't want to cheer for that?
Macke: No. I'm going to take one last stab at this, Dennis. Who knows.
I dismissed Bank of America as lunatics about eight months ago, and I seemed to understand the world then. But now either lunatics are in the game.
I don't know where they're playing.
I've tried for the last three hours to communicate with Bank of America on TV, because apparently either I've gotten off the bus in Crazytown, but I'm much happier just trying to get them to speak to me in five words or less.
Dennis: A trader friend of mine says that these markets, they're here to make you feel foolish. So congratulations. I think all --
Macke: I'm going to go with crazy. Yes or no?
Dennis: Thanks a lot.
Macke: I'm trying to keep playing.
Dennis: (Thanks other guests.)
Ski_Banker
Suspended
WOW. I mean, WOW.
Talk about being coked outta yer mind...
Talk about being coked outta yer mind...
- Joined
- 1 September 2001
- Messages
- 4,123
From a forum
"I note that Macke's performance here has the structure of an Ericksonian hypnotic induction.
Here is how his induction works in "theory":
First he gets the subjects to accept the induction when he says: "I am going to treat you like a child, if you understand say yes". Then he uses multiple time frames and linguistic frames to confuse the subjects. When doing this the conscious mind gets overwhelmed and the unconscious is accessible to induction. Then he says "90% of you understand what I am saying", referencing that he is communicating to the unconscious. He then gives a direct induction: "you are coming off the rails or you are more confused now". And finally he speaks to those who may not be swayed by the induction: I "dismissed the entire game when talking to car people". Perhaps, here he is referring to the market sell side as nothing more than car salesmen. And " you are starting to feel the band aid coming off". A "band aid" makes everything feel better, but is not a systemic cure. The band aid is what "mom" does to make us feel better, but not a cure for a nation in cardiac arrest. And now we must feel the pain of that small band aid fix coming off.
In theory, he is talking directly to all those who are not able to be induced with the band aid metaphor and using the induction to speak to the unconscious of those in "trance" to CNBS. To them he is warning: "be careful of the game of the salesmen" and "the game is coming off the rails."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_H._Erickson
"I note that Macke's performance here has the structure of an Ericksonian hypnotic induction.
Here is how his induction works in "theory":
First he gets the subjects to accept the induction when he says: "I am going to treat you like a child, if you understand say yes". Then he uses multiple time frames and linguistic frames to confuse the subjects. When doing this the conscious mind gets overwhelmed and the unconscious is accessible to induction. Then he says "90% of you understand what I am saying", referencing that he is communicating to the unconscious. He then gives a direct induction: "you are coming off the rails or you are more confused now". And finally he speaks to those who may not be swayed by the induction: I "dismissed the entire game when talking to car people". Perhaps, here he is referring to the market sell side as nothing more than car salesmen. And " you are starting to feel the band aid coming off". A "band aid" makes everything feel better, but is not a systemic cure. The band aid is what "mom" does to make us feel better, but not a cure for a nation in cardiac arrest. And now we must feel the pain of that small band aid fix coming off.
In theory, he is talking directly to all those who are not able to be induced with the band aid metaphor and using the induction to speak to the unconscious of those in "trance" to CNBS. To them he is warning: "be careful of the game of the salesmen" and "the game is coming off the rails."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_H._Erickson
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selling out of almost all my longs but my income equities. Got out of my 2nd to last 8th of AAPL at 14x a few days back. I don't care if we go all the way back to 14k next week I am up since before the crisis in my personal holdings and that doesn't include dividends which is probably another 4%.
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