How 'bout that stock market?

robr said:
FITB is up over 150% in the past 2 days... too bad it has to almost quadruple from where it is now to reach my cost :P.
Click to expand...

Someone on this board bought 50k shares for 1.28pps. I am not saying who but I know this person is pretty damn happy right now.
 
Whoohoo! Chalk this one up to luck...

I sold *most* of my Smith & Wesson at today's high around 4.00, just because the stock had gone way too far, too fast (up 30% in 2 days). Then Eric Holder says that the assault weapons ban will be reinstated and the stock is currently tanking. Haha. I'll buy it back at 2.50-3.00 since I don't think serious gun control legislation will ever get passed (which is the major risk in this stock, obviously).
 
Nice trades. Did some more boring trades in my personal account, bought more BP in the 38's. Got blasted in an overnight position at work so I kept it tight all day today. Ended up only down $400 fortunately. Could have added a zero to that.
 
All I can say is this -- I'm licking my lips for the carnage to come next week. Here's who will get blown out:

-Everyone that bought in January on the notion of an "Obama bounce"

-Everyone that bought in the last few months thinking we made a short term bottom. You know...buy on the dips, right?

-Everyone that "doubled-down" to make up for their losses last fall
 
Ski_Banker said:
All I can say is this -- I'm licking my lips for the carnage to come next week. Here's who will get blown out:

-Everyone that bought in January on the notion of an "Obama bounce"

-Everyone that bought in the last few months thinking we made a short term bottom. You know...buy on the dips, right?

-Everyone that "doubled-down" to make up for their losses last fall
Click to expand...

Quote for Truth. I'm so sick of trying to tell people that it wasn't a bottom only for them to laugh in my face and go out and buy everything they can get their hands on only to get pummeled even harder.

I tried. Screw 'em at this point.

If you're going to buy them all the way down a drop like this you don't deserve to be in the business.
 
Sold 600 share of USD today, made a whopping $27 lol, could had been negative, not losing is the new winning. I can get back in whenever.

I wasn't able to watch the market yesterday, so my trades were triggered by the sell stop I set to protect my gain, but did not give me the max gain. If I was on it I would had rack up a bit more.

My trades last couple days:
Symbol Quantity Opening Transaction Closing Transaction Gain (Loss) Gain Term Action
BAC 1000 02/23/2009 4.0589 4066.89 S 02/25/2009 4.45 4441.99 375 Short Edit
BAC 525 02/25/2009 4.36 2289.00 S 02/26/2009 5.30 2778.29 489 Short Edit
BAC 100 02/25/2009 4.36 443.99 S 02/26/2009 5.30 529.20 85 Short Edit
BAC 375 02/25/2009 4.36 1635.00 S 02/26/2009 5.30 1984.49 349 Short Edit
NCX 400 01/30/2009 2.01 804.00 S 02/23/2009 5.3813 2148.96 1345 Short Edit
NCX 200 01/30/2009 2.01 402.00 S 02/23/2009 5.3813 1074.48 672 Short Edit
NCX 200 01/30/2009 2.01 402.00 S 02/23/2009 5.3813 1074.48 672 Short Edit
NCX 100 01/30/2009 2.01 204.99 S 02/23/2009 5.3813 537.24 332 Short Edit
NCX 100 01/30/2009 2.01 204.99 S 02/23/2009 5.30 529.20 324 Short Edit
NCX 900 01/28/2009 3.5799 3229.90 S 02/23/2009 5.30 4762.78 1533 Short Edit
STT 150 02/20/2009 21.25 3191.49 S 02/23/2009 22.6032 3382.47 191 Short Edit
STT 150 02/20/2009 21.25 3191.49 S 02/24/2009 26.53 3971.49 780 Short Edit
URE 7000 02/20/2009 2.88 20167.99 S 02/23/2009 2.85 19941.91 (226) Short Edit
URE 3000 02/23/2009 2.80 8407.99 S 02/25/2009 2.97 8905.96 498 Short Edit
URE 3000 02/23/2009 2.80 8407.99 S 02/25/2009 2.97 8905.96 498 Short Edit
URE 5800 02/25/2009 2.95 17110.00 S 02/25/2009 3.09 17914.18 804 Short Edit
URE 100 02/25/2009 2.95 302.99 S 02/25/2009 3.09 308.87 6 Short Edit
URE 100 02/25/2009 2.95 295.00 S 02/25/2009 3.09 308.87 14 Short Edit
USB 300 02/25/2009 11.99 3604.99 S 02/26/2009 14.68 4395.99 791 Short Edit
USD 400 02/20/2009 11.65 4667.99 S 02/25/2009 11.9456 4772.89 105 Short Edit
USD 200 02/20/2009 11.65 2330.00 S 02/25/2009 11.9456 2386.44 56 Short Edit
USD 200 02/26/2009 11.98 2396.00 S 02/27/2009 12.0656 2409.91 14 Short Edit
USD 300 02/26/2009 11.98 3601.99 S 02/27/2009 12.0656 3614.87 13 Short Edit
UYG 3000 02/20/2009 2.18 6540.00 S 02/25/2009 2.20 6595.97 56 Short Edit
UYG 1000 02/20/2009 2.18 2187.99 S 02/25/2009 2.20 2198.66 11 Short Edit
UYG 2000 02/20/2009 2.18 4360.00 S 02/25/2009 2.20 4397.31 37 Short Edit
UYG 1500 02/25/2009 2.33 3498.99 S 02/25/2009 2.50 3741.99 243 Short Edit
UYG 1400 02/25/2009 2.33 3265.73 S 02/25/2009 2.50 3499.98 234 Short Edit
UYG 100 02/25/2009 2.33 233.27 S 02/25/2009 2.50 250.00 17 Short Edit
USD 200 02/26/2009 11.98 2396.00 S 02/27/2009 12.0656 2409.91 14 Short Edit
USD 300 02/26/2009 11.98 3601.99 S 02/27/2009 12.0656 3614.87 13 Short Edit
 
A bit of market Friday-night stock market philosophizing:

It'll be really interesting to see, when all is said and done in a few years, who the "winners" or "survivors" are during this bear market. I actually think it will be the retail investor, at least compared to the institutional $. Why? Put simply, because markets tend to contradict whatever the prevailing wisdom is. In this case, the prevailing wisdom is that retail investors are uninformed (always true) but that they sell at the bottom.

This market is going lower. Not just in the near term, but in the next few years it will be still lower (although definitely not in a straight line). BUT -- many small investors are scared shitless, for good reason, and have already cashed out. *If* this were a normal bear market, then the retail investor-sells-at-the-bottom classic would hold true. Since it isn't a normal bear market, I think it will be the 30-50 year old money managers, that have been trained to always buy on the dips, that will get wiped out this time. Time will tell. :cool:
 
Goddamn.. did you guys see that berkshire move? Trade of my career C-H-U-M-P-E-D. I was long BRK.B with decent size from 2349. Some size came into BRK.A so I went ahead and dumped it 50 points later for what's usually a pretty decent 4 figure trade.




THEN IT WENT UP ANOTHER 200 POINTS.

80 shares X 300 points = 24k in 30 minutes. I even got short at 2598 but only with 20 shares.

Damn I'm going to be pissed about that trade for a while.
 
sahtt said:
Goddamn.. did you guys see that berkshire move? Trade of my career C-H-U-M-P-E-D. I was long BRK.B with decent size from 2349. Some size came into BRK.A so I went ahead and dumped it 50 points later for what's usually a pretty decent 4 figure trade.




THEN IT WENT UP ANOTHER 200 POINTS.

80 shares X 300 points = 24k in 30 minutes. I even got short at 2598 but only with 20 shares.

Damn I'm going to be pissed about that trade for a while.
Click to expand...

You made money didn't ya? :smile:

I'm still choking on my taxes. Cough cough.
 
SilverStone05 said:
You made money didn't ya? :smile:

I'm still choking on my taxes. Cough cough.
Click to expand...

I am still heavy in stocks like KMP (rock solid), LINE (only big winner), and BP with dividends that I have to pay taxes on. Fortunately at work they handle that stuff for me; I trade <1% the volume with my personal money compared to my trading account at the firm.
 
sahtt said:
I am still heavy in stocks like KMP (rock solid), LINE (only big winner), and BP with dividends that I have to pay taxes on. Fortunately at work they handle that stuff for me; I trade <1% the volume with my personal money compared to my trading account at the firm.
Click to expand...

Thinking about CVX and/or XOM. What do you think?
 
sahtt said:
Goddamn.. did you guys see that berkshire move? Trade of my career C-H-U-M-P-E-D. I was long BRK.B with decent size from 2349. Some size came into BRK.A so I went ahead and dumped it 50 points later for what's usually a pretty decent 4 figure trade.




THEN IT WENT UP ANOTHER 200 POINTS.

80 shares X 300 points = 24k in 30 minutes. I even got short at 2598 but only with 20 shares.

Damn I'm going to be pissed about that trade for a while.
Click to expand...

I feel your pain... I too was in a similar situation this morning...

I was being a big p-u-ss-a-y and got my stop to +1 tick too soon and missed this tasty pop...

2qn3ars.png


I've been slapping my hand for the rest of the morning... :(
 
SilverStone05 said:
Thinking about CVX and/or XOM. What do you think?
Click to expand...

A few guys at my firm are short XOM/long CVX. As far as 'investing' goes, not that interested in either. If I did buy them, it would be at 62 and 53 respectively. Either break the 6/5 handle and I'd be out.
 
Seems like most of you have other things to worry about,,,,,so I thought I might bring Tata Motors to your attention.TTM looks like a buy at this price.
 
docjohn said:
Seems like most of you have other things to worry about,,,,,so I thought I might bring Tata Motors to your attention.TTM looks like a buy at this price.
Click to expand...

I don't know anything about Tata Motors, but Brinks Home Security (CFL) just hit a new 52-week high. Its subscription-based business model means that the sales boost it's getting from fearful consumers (today) are basically permanent. Their customer attrition rate is only about 7% per year.

http://adage.com/article?article_id=135944

http://www.brantfordexpositor.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1508258
 
Ski_Banker said:
I don't know anything about Tata Motors, but Brinks Home Security (CFL) just hit a new 52-week high. Its subscription-based business model means that the sales boost it's getting from fearful consumers (today) are basically permanent. Their customer attrition rate is only about 7% per year.

http://adage.com/article?article_id=135944

http://www.brantfordexpositor.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1508258
Click to expand...

Not to go off on a tangent, but ...... You know what I don't like about Brinks (and probably the rest are similar)....... I can't set up a counter-password that they have to provide me. I'm sitting at home, I get a call on my cell phone saying 'This is Brinks, you have an alarm event, what's your password', it could be ANYBODY!!!!
 
To all those who lost $ in the market this year. You can flip property and apply the gains towards you market losses according to my accountant.
She said you can not rent the property you have to flip it.
 
New 52 week high for Brinks Home Security.

If you're curious -- do a craigslist job search for residential alarm installers. Pick any city, large or small, and search "alarm". The number of job openings for alarm installers is pretty staggering. It still astounds me how cheap this stock trades but I guess some new folks are starting to catch on.
 
Best day ever trading EUR/USD. 6 hours and 150 pts of trend. 9am till 3pm CDT. They should all be like that!
 
Ski_Banker said:
New 52 week high for Brinks Home Security.

If you're curious -- do a craigslist job search for residential alarm installers. Pick any city, large or small, and search "alarm". The number of job openings for alarm installers is pretty staggering. It still astounds me how cheap this stock trades but I guess some new folks are starting to catch on.
Click to expand...
yup.

our oldest son continues to have so much business that he appears to work the hours / days / jobs he chooses.

i've been telling him for years the security gig would get tighter and tighter, housing was going to blow up, etc, and he keeps saying (basically), "thx, but when i feel like making some money i make a few phone calls, things fill up and i go make some more money." he has a strong roster of reliable installers that always respond to his calls, so it seems to work pretty well for him.

seems likely brinks still has room for pretty good growth.
 
queenlives said:
yup.

our oldest son continues to have so much business that he appears to work the hours / days / jobs he chooses.

i've been telling him for years the security gig would get tighter and tighter, housing was going to blow up, etc, and he keeps saying (basically), "thx, but when i feel like making some money i make a few phone calls, things fill up and i go make some more money." he has a strong roster of reliable installers that always respond to his calls, so it seems to work pretty well for him.

seems likely brinks still has room for pretty good growth.
Click to expand...

In terms of stock valuation, there's average growth, below average growth, and extranormal growth. Towards the end of 2008, Brinks had been experiencing below average growth in new subscribers, leading to the simplistic conclusion that "Brinks isn't countercyclical, growth is slowing with the economy" so it was spun off cheaply. However, for consumers, there is an inflection point where fear begins to surpass personal economic concerns. I think that inflection point was reached in Q1 (since people weren't really "afraid" until the very end of last year). Figuring out this timing, and when it would show up in financial results (it didn't in Q4 '08), was/is critical to getting this stock pick correct. That's why I started a basic NSX Prime poll a few months ago asking, very specifically, when people decided to go ahead and buy a home security system (the results of that were inconclusive, actually). But anyway, if the market had priced CFL on the assumption that "growth is slowing due to the weak economy" as Analysts had proposed, then with any re-acceleration of growth, should result in a terrific bump in the stock. And, given the long-term nature of CFL's business model & cash flows, any acceleration of subscriber growth becomes basically permanent revenue (unlike, for example, Smith & Wesson whose current sales spike is, most definitely, only temporary and shouldn't have a big impact on valuation). Notwithstanding the stock pick, Brinks Home Security has an *outstanding* business model. It just so happens that it is also a great stock to own in my opinion (due to the current mispricing).

$.02

To be clear -- I'm not making ANY investment recommendation to anyone. Just writing my personal thoughts on the business/stock for Primers' reference and education.
 

Similar threads

Chris_Lum
New owner, ownership Review
Replies
6
Views
655
Chris_Lum
Chris_Lum
Chris_Lum
MITA short shifter review
Replies
2
Views
371
Chris_Lum
Chris_Lum
R
How to remove panel under steering column
Replies
9
Views
167
Honcho
Honcho
M
How much would I regret getting an Auto (and old ABS, NA1) instead of a 6MT
2
Replies
26
Views
956
MotorMouth93
MotorMouth93
annointed
Memorabilia NSX Art (piston + rod)
Replies
10
Views
786
annointed
annointed
Back
Top