Well, it's tough to put a number on the likelyhood of an incident. VIR is a GREAT track for noobs, because there are almost no walls or other fixed objects to run into. Really, turn 5 is the only turn where you could likely hit a wall. Everywhere else is pretty much open fields (see picture below). Very few incidents at tracks that I've seen involve more than 1 car.
That being said, being on a track is not without risk. As a noob, you really need to keep the speed down in order to keep everything under control at all times. There will be plenty of other novices there also being conservative as they should. And all will have instructors in their car keeping them under control. If you do that, I think the chances of an incident are very low. Yes, there will be some passing by more experienced drivers, but this event is not sold out - mostly because Chin members are mostly from Florida and so not many are traveling up to VA in December. VIR is a long course (3.27 miles!), so there's plenty of room to spread out. Most HPDE clubs put 30 cars per mile on the track at once. This event will be way less than that, my guess is it will be about 1/3 to 1/2 of that.
You should DEFINITELY do it. VIR is a blast, and should be experienced at least once. The roller coaster, the hog pen, and my favorite the upper esses (which experience and track tires allow me to do at over 100 mph - but as a noob you should NOT do that). It is awesome. Right, Xavier?
