TSLA stock buy or stay away?

[centerpunch]

The average % of owners who have had issues with their Tesla's is 44%, Honda is at 15%, most mfgs are around ~20%. People love their Tesla because it's a status symbol atm. Once it doesn't have that status, and the EV market is actually competitive I think that their market share will tumble.

Consumer reports ranks Tesla 23rd.

It doesn't really matter how Consumer Reports ranks Tesla, what matters is how the owners rank Tesla, which is VERY high.

And thinking the hundreds of thousands of folks buying Teslas every year are somehow confused or too dumb to know that they really shouldn't like their car sounds like all the Android guys who are probably still saying that people only buy iPhones because they are too dumb to realize how bad they are, and any day now, Apple's market share and valuation will plummet. I think they've been saying that for about 15 years now.

So far not many people have made money betting against the admittedly eccentric Mr. Musk.

 

[drtruong]

So far not many people have made money betting against the admittedly eccentric Mr. Musk.

Good point and it sums up everything.

 

[drtruong]

I don't think anyone on this forum is the market for that company. Im just pointing them out because to show that the EV market in the US is going to explode in the next 5 years and the main driver is going to be affordable cars in the 30-40k range (which is Vinfasts plan).

I wouldn't include GM, Ford, or VW in a conversation about .com bubbles. I'm sure they are fine. The smaller companies might come and go though. We have to keep in mind a lot of these new EV companies are tech/VC companies making EVs. They are not car companies making EVs. They are doing an ok job in general, but established car mfgs will have a leg up in quality, reliability and cost once they really get rolling in the EV market.

The wait time is partly Tesla capacity issues, line efficiency issues, and partly market issues. But they are slower to market than most of their EV competitors. Most Audi e-tron models are 4-5 months to delivery. This is because they have built in efficiencies in their factories, delivery lines, and supply lines.

Anyway, my overall point is that Tesla has had the EV market cornered with little to no competition but overall their cars aren't built as well as the major mfgs. Once those mfgs start turning out EVs (especially less expensive ones in the 30k range) Tesla's market share is going to tank. Enjoy the high stock while it lasts.

The topic is investment, not car, and I try to say Tesla company is making the money more than Ford and GM. At this time Tesla is making a killing with profit while other companies aren't. I am not sure how Vinfast, Vietnamese carmaker, would make an affordable at $30-40K range cars to make profit. The main component of the EV is battery and it is the most expensive one. The price of lithium over the past ten years has risen from $4,450/tonne to $78,032/tonne.

GM bankrupted twice and asked taxpayers to bail them out. Most of top graduated engineers want to work for Tesla and the dumb ones or the left over ones might work for GM, Ford or other companies, LOL. By the time other companies catch up, Tesla has already come out some new technologies, who knows. However, Mr. Musk is already talking about AI (Artificial Intelligence) and he stated it will be worth more than making cars.

 

[RYU]

This is a rare and interesing interview with the Ford CEO. He sorta dances over the Tesla questions but a bit of a good watch. Ford still has some big challenges.

https://youtu.be/U2rVbqI-gus

 

[drtruong]

Sorry, been dealing with NTEP, NISA, and AREMA all day, my acronyms got all mixed up. NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Admin. They make the rules and regs about what safety requirements your car has to meet, how high the beltline is etc. The Cybertruck is an exoskeleton vehicle made of stainless steel meaning that the chassis support is built into the body panels of the car. This potentially could influence it's ability to pass the NHTSA crash test requirements and it's been speculated that the only way to really do that is to have it listed as a heavy duty vehicle which doesn't have to meet the same requirements of passenger vehicles.

Mainly, based on the design it could have a hard time pasing NHTSA and IIHS (which isn't gvt but tests all cars) if the vehicle is too rigid.

It also seems like a lot of other 'back of the napkin' Musk ideas which are fun in theory but likely won't ever become reality.

The average % of owners who have had issues with their Tesla's is 44%, Honda is at 15%, most mfgs are around ~20%. People love their Tesla because it's a status symbol atm. Once it doesn't have that status, and the EV market is actually competitive I think that their market share will tumble.

Consumer reports ranks Tesla 23rd.

https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/consumer-reports-car-rankings/

I don't know any about NHTSA rules and regulations. But I will tell you that Tesla has invested Casting Machines for Cybertruck. It would not be very wise for Mr. Musk to spend several millions for each Casting Machine if it is not approved by NHTSA.

The 1st half of the year Tesla stocks was beaten due to COVID shut down in Shanghai and Twitter purchase saga, the lowest price was $620 in June. By October, the lawsuit between Mr. Musk and Twitter will be settled.

I expect the 2nd half of the year will go up. There are catalysts that will drive the stock up......1. Stock split. 2. EV credit.... under the new "BBB" bill if it is passed. 3. S&P upgrade debts. 4. FSB Beta release Q4. As of today the price is $891, and the announcement of stock split 3:1 this week. There is pros and cons after the stock split....the stock options will be cheaper so investors will most likely short the stocks. It will be volatile! Put your seat belt on, it will be a wild ride.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03txl_3RLP0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_c6g_E12oug

 

[docjohn]

The tesla bears have been claiming that the competition will crush it all the way up to over 1000$ lol...In technology the first mover advantage is strong...

 

[drtruong]

The wait time is partly Tesla capacity issues, line efficiency issues, and partly market issues. But they are slower to market than most of their EV competitors. Most Audi e-tron models are 4-5 months to delivery. This is because they have built in efficiencies in their factories, delivery lines, and supply lines.

The backlogs of Tesla maybe 10x than Audi e-tron models, if you compare Tesla and Audi e-tron . Shanghai Gigafactory produces 21,000 EVs per week ALONE, not including other Gigafactories but they try to pump out more EVs on the newly built Gigafactories like Berlin and Texas at the end of the year. And it still is not fast enough to delivery to the customers.

Those have reserved for Cybertrucks around the world was over 1 millions, Tesla announced that they will refund the money for those who live in Europe and Australia because of the backlogs.

 

[FL32725]

This might be Heresy, but I am about to Sell my 1992 (Original 1st owner) NSX... and put the money into TSLA stock. I am just having more driving enjoyment from my 2018 Tesla Model S than my 1992 NSX. It's faster, too.
It goes onto BringATrailer.com next week ?!?!?!
Yes, mixed emotions about selling my NSX....

-- Michael

 

[tucsonsx]

This might be Heresy, but I am about to Sell my 1992 (Original 1st owner) NSX... and put the money into TSLA stock. I am just having more driving enjoyment from my 2018 Tesla Model S than my 1992 NSX. It's faster, too.
It goes onto BringATrailer.com next week ?!?!?!
Yes, mixed emotions about selling my NSX....

-- Michael

It'l be interesting to see which is the better investment in 5 Years. I'm hedging my bets by owning my 94 NSX and TSLA for the long run - pretty sure my 18 Model S value will be in the tank by then.

 

[FL32725]

No one could argue with that strategy!

 

[Superhatch]

I don't know any about NHTSA rules and regulations. But I will tell you that Tesla has invested Casting Machines for Cybertruck. It would not be very wise for Mr. Musk to spend several millions for each Casting Machine if it is not approved by NHTSA.

The 1st half of the year Tesla stocks was beaten due to COVID shut down in Shanghai and Twitter purchase saga, the lowest price was $620 in June. By October, the lawsuit between Mr. Musk and Twitter will be settled.

I expect the 2nd half of the year will go up. There are catalysts that will drive the stock up......1. Stock split. 2. EV credit.... under the new "BBB" bill if it is passed. 3. S&P upgrade debts. 4. FSB Beta release Q4. As of today the price is $891, and the announcement of stock split 3:1 this week. There is pros and cons after the stock split....the stock options will be cheaper so investors will most likely short the stocks. It will be volatile! Put your seat belt on, it will be a wild ride.

You can't get NHTSA approval without crashing production vehicles. Tesla has made some very safe vehicles in the past but they are designed with standard crumple zones, and other known safety guidelines in place. The main reasons for improved ratings with Tesla's are the glass roof and lower/no motor placement in the front which allows for better frontal impact results (most EVs do better than ICE vehicles).

The design of the cybertruck is obviously vastly different and I don't think anyone knows if they will pass the 2a/b truck impact requirements. Tesla thinks they will, which is good, but they won't know for sure until they build a few and crash them. There is no current modeling software which has decades of data to use from other mfgs and NHTSA to compare to since the CT is so different.

I would wager the 9k casting machine could also be used to cast the Model Y as a one piece casting as they are currently using two machines to make a front and rear. I'll be convinced the CT is real when it actually goes on sale.

Multiple friends are still waiting for the full autopilot they paid for as far back as 2016 and Elon said each year it was coming the next year.

Tesla has also reduced R&D from 9-10% to 4-5% which has greatly helped with profitability. As other mfgs ramp up their R&D and start taking up more market share each year (especially in China which is currently 50% of the EV market) I would expect to see Tesla shares start to drop as they either ramp up R&D or fall behind.

In 2020 they held 75% of the market share of EVs (which was 5% of global car sales). In 2021 that fell to 69% and EV's were 8.5% of all car sales. Losing 4% of a market share in 1 year is a lot.

I still think Tesla is probably an ok short term investment, but 2-3+ years out it might be just like any other stock.

 

[Superhatch]

Down 33% currently due to his mishandling of Twitter. Makes you wonder what the board of Tesla has had to do to keep his ideas from ruining that company too?

 

[docjohn]

You know we are getting close to bottoming when the Stallworth megatech players are selling off like amazon/ apple

 

[Superhatch]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/13/business/elon-musk-court-pay/index.html

 

[Superhatch]

Looks like Elon sold another 3B shares on Monday. That makes a total of 26B shares sold YTD. Unfortunately it looks like his Twitter escapade has dwarfed any chance of using this as an investment vehicle. Unless you don't own any and can predict the bottom. It's down 15% over the last 5 days.

 

[DRIFTER]

It’s at 156

If that phone comes out 2024 I want a piece of it. I’m buying.

 

[docjohn]

starting to look interresting

 

[FL32725]

Referencing my September 29, 2022 posting:
Update: I still have not sold my '92 NSX, but did sell some TSLA stock for the tax losses. Looks like I'll hold onto my beloved NSX through this inflation/recession cycle and see where we come out on the other end.

 

[docjohn]

folks are buying TSLA in a horrendous tape today

 

[RPM217]

folks are buying TSLA in a horrendous tape today

Like I've said all along, Musk is brilliant, but a total nut job, he's a visionary, but he's blind, deaf and ........... Lots of money was made in TSLA, and Bitcoin. At one point (not sure you can still do it), you could purchase a Tesla, with crypto. Cathie Woods is still buying, while Musk is selling. TSLA down 55% trailing 52 weeks, and ARKK down 63%............'nuff said

 

[docjohn]

retail loves celebrity....

 

[RPM217]

Like I've said all along, Musk is brilliant, but a total nut job, he's a visionary, but he's blind, deaf and ........... Lots of money was made in TSLA, and Bitcoin. At one point (not sure you can still do it), you could purchase a Tesla, with crypto. Cathie Woods is still buying, while Musk is selling. TSLA down 55% trailing 52 weeks, and ARKK down 63%............'nuff said

How low can it go. Used Tesla's are also plummeting in value, and even the $7,500 price cut isn't helping. An article in today's WSJ points out that in Europe it's now costing more to fully charge an EV, than tanking it up with gas..........Long live the ICE!!!!

 

[docjohn]

as we all know the market overshoots to both sides...
I think below 100 there is a long term opportunity..

 

[Superhatch]

A little update from a friend.

Tesla set new pricing down about 20% due to the amount of inventory piling up on their 'dealership' lots which should also drop the price of used vehicles by about the same amount in the next few months.

Also the board has put out a vote to the stockholders for a hostile ousting of Musk which myself and others think is likely to go through and the charter would likely allow it. Q4/Q1 sales will likely be down further depressing the stock, but ousting Musk might cause it to shoot back up and restore some positive feedback for the brand.

 

[tucsonsx]

Musk has said he doesn’t want to be CEO of anything so a new one will likely be found. The situation will be much like Gwen Shotwell at SpaceX. He still owns too many voting shares to ” ousted ”. He will remain doing what he does best - innovating. Tesla is now too big and successful for Elon’s politically incorrect tweets to have much effect except for some Hollywood celebrities who specialize in virtual signaling ( as they ride around in their private jets ) buying a different car brand.