The Official U.S.A. In Decline Thread

[Red]

I think that Americans (and now that Ski isn't subject to American news cycles) have NO idea what is going on (sorry)

This isn't a "one or two year thing" for America - this is BIG - the devaluation of the US currency, the fact that Bush has put the USA in a 10 Trillion Dollar hole, and the subprime fiasco, which was fueled by the "new" trend in corporate governance in the USA - (great fix for Enron Accounting) pay the CEO and management crazy money based on bad metrics. (Its like the Dot Com "air companies" but they did it with Asset Backed Securities since they are "trusted and old fashioned" - they fluffed them up with dot com style "air".

I think selling bank stocks short a year from now will suck - and that the US is only beginning to go down - there's far to fall.

Last year we sold approx 320 units in Vegas, most financed with 130% mortgages, although not many have defaulted, its a question of "yet" in my mind.

There has been a sea-change in lending methodologies and criteria (methodologies = faceless lending to strangers vs. the bank manager who dealt with your parents, criteria = Loan to value ratios and Debt service ratios that using the word "imprudent" is like saying Britney is "just about MENSA material")

These changes will see consumers walking away from loans as the economy softens, and its gonna soften - the mistake that has been made is that the drop in consumer prices of semi and durable goods has come from cheaper imports at the cost of American Manufacturing and has shifted wealth and demand for "input materials" like steel, wood, wheat, oil, etc. into the developing world (china, etc.) where there has never been demand before. Basically the cost of inputs is going to increase (just like the cost of Flour has gone up three major times this year - unprecedented!) which, along with the massive budget deficit and national debt in the usa is gonna lead to killer inflation as there is a concurrent drop in real property values (traditional "safe havens") due to mortgage defaults.

If I were you guys, I'd buy gold!

(Look at us in Canada, our economy is fine, but manufacturing is getting killed, and our dollar hasn't risen, its your dollar that has lost 40% of its value since Bushie took over)

The American Public doesn't get it - too much Patriot flavored Coolaid and Jesus - just like when "Chrysler bought Mercedes" was all over the news - its the US economy thats tanking (and its hurting sectors in the rest of the world) , not the rest of the world going down along with America.

Sorry, long post - if you're reading this have your eyes glazed over, or did you skip to the end for the punch line?

 

[jond]

Not that this thread is "timely" or anything.

Except that it is, timely.

I wonder how many message boards across the internet have the same thread? I know on honda-tech.com, there is a 100+ page thread about this topic.

I think the general public is starting to get worried.

 

[WingZ]

I think that Americans (and now that Ski isn't subject to American news cycles) have NO idea what is going on (sorry)

This isn't a "one or two year thing" for America - this is BIG - the devaluation of the US currency, the fact that Bush has put the USA in a 10 Trillion Dollar hole, and the subprime fiasco, which was fueled by the "new" trend in corporate governance in the USA - (great fix for Enron Accounting) pay the CEO and management crazy money based on bad metrics. (Its like the Dot Com "air companies" but they did it with Asset Backed Securities since they are "trusted and old fashioned" - they fluffed them up with dot com style "air".

I think selling bank stocks short a year from now will suck - and that the US is only beginning to go down - there's far to fall.

Last year we sold approx 320 units in Vegas, most financed with 130% mortgages, although not many have defaulted, its a question of "yet" in my mind.

There has been a sea-change in lending methodologies and criteria (methodologies = faceless lending to strangers vs. the bank manager who dealt with your parents, criteria = Loan to value ratios and Debt service ratios that using the word "imprudent" is like saying Britney is "just about MENSA material")

These changes will see consumers walking away from loans as the economy softens, and its gonna soften - the mistake that has been made is that the drop in consumer prices of semi and durable goods has come from cheaper imports at the cost of American Manufacturing and has shifted wealth and demand for "input materials" like steel, wood, wheat, oil, etc. into the developing world (china, etc.) where there has never been demand before. Basically the cost of inputs is going to increase (just like the cost of Flour has gone up three major times this year - unprecedented!) which, along with the massive budget deficit and national debt in the usa is gonna lead to killer inflation as there is a concurrent drop in real property values (traditional "safe havens") due to mortgage defaults.

If I were you guys, I'd buy gold!

(Look at us in Canada, our economy is fine, but manufacturing is getting killed, and our dollar hasn't risen, its your dollar that has lost 40% of its value since Bushie took over)

The American Public doesn't get it - too much Patriot flavored Coolaid and Jesus - just like when "Chrysler bought Mercedes" was all over the news - its the US economy thats tanking (and its hurting sectors in the rest of the world) , not the rest of the world going down along with America.

Sorry, long post - if you're reading this have your eyes glazed over, or did you skip to the end for the punch line?

Bushie says our economy is good, our economy is strong! He believes in our economy! There is no recession says Bushie.:biggrin:

 

[Red]

Bushie says our economy is good, our economy is strong! He believes in our economy! There is no recession says Bushie.:biggrin:

I know you keep saying you're "into Bush" but seriously dude, all you're getting from THIS Bush is @n@l sex!:wink:

 

[Ryanmcd2]

If it gets bad we can all move to Toronto and live for free off the govt.

 

[Red]

If it gets bad we can all move to Toronto and live for free off the govt.

At least to to Est Fest and Try it out!:wink:

Free health care, fewer guns, WAY lower murder rate, great public schools, and hot chicks - almost makes up for the cold winter

Of course you're gonna have to accept the fact that the Church has no power over our government and abortion and gay marriage is legal - but the almost legal pot will help you forget!:biggrin: :tongue:

 

[DrVolkl]

At least to to Est Fest and Try it out!:wink:

Free health care, fewer guns, WAY lower murder rate, great public schools, and hot chicks - almost makes up for the cold winter

Of course you're gonna have to accept the fact that the Church has no power over our government and abortion and gay marriage is legal - but the almost legal pot will help you forget!:biggrin: :tongue:

And how much (%) of your paycheck goes to taxes? Washington State has no state income tax...makes it nice....just gotta pay those feds.

I like Canada a lot...seems to be a very "clean" country.

 

[Red]

And how much (%) of your paycheck goes to taxes? Washington State has no state income tax...makes it nice....just gotta pay those feds.

I like Canada a lot...seems to be a very "clean" country.

Well, taxes are higher, but your paying for healthcare, safety (no carjackings, safe to drive just about anywhere, etc.) a clean city, and clean girls:biggrin: :wink:

 

[WingZ]

I know you keep saying you're "into Bush" but seriously dude, all you're getting from THIS Bush is @n@l sex!:wink:

So true! I read these two articles this morning and thought "f*ck me!"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080310/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_war_costs

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080310/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices;_ylt=At_PtUbuuaV9nMkpyhQ3Ocqs0NUE

Anyone got a graph show the stratospheric arc of gas prices since Bush has been in office ..LOL

 

[Hothonda]

And how much (%) of your paycheck goes to taxes? Washington State has no state income tax...makes it nice....just gotta pay those feds.

I like Canada a lot...seems to be a very "clean" country.

Washington makes up for it with 9.2% sales tax in metro areas, B&O tax (Business and operations tax) + big gas tax and on and on. They just get us in different ways....my property tax just went up 30% in the dollars I pay for '08.

Regarding getting the bank to redo a loan.....much of the problem wasn't on new home mortgages but refi's where people pulled money out to buy more, banking that their property would increase to cover their asses. My opinion is you got yourself into the loan - don't expect someone else to bail you out.

 

[Dtrigg]

Could you help me understand how Bush has increased the price of gas? I always thought oil was an international commodity and the price was determined by demand, some speculators and the amount OPEC is willing to supply.

 

[WingZ]

Could you help me understand how Bush has increased the price of gas? I always thought oil was an international commodity and the price was determined by demand, some speculators and the amount OPEC is willing to supply.

Hmm let's see it this thing called the war in Iraq. Iraq who used to be a major supplier until the war then there's this ongoing thing such as having constant tension with Iran and Venezuela. Again large oil producing countries.

Do I think Bush is entirely to blame absolutely not ,but oil prices didn't start going up until the invasion of Iraq and haven't gone back to what they were since. You know plus it's this funny thing that ever since an Oil man from Texas got into office that's the commodity that has gone up the most.

 

[DrVolkl]

Well, taxes are higher, but your paying for healthcare, safety (no carjackings, safe to drive just about anywhere, etc.) a clean city, and clean girls:biggrin: :wink:

What % is it though? I'm curious.

As far as WA making it up in other places, dude, go live in NY and then you'll enjoy the no state income tax.

 

[Hothonda]

What % is it though? I'm curious.

As far as WA making it up in other places, dude, go live in NY and then you'll enjoy the no state income tax.

OK whatever you say Dude!

 

[WingZ]

Well, taxes are higher, but your paying for healthcare, safety (no carjackings, safe to drive just about anywhere, etc.) a clean city, and clean girls:biggrin: :wink:

Forgive my language ,but that p*sses me the f*ck off! How the hell is it that I can go across a gahdamn bridge that's only like 2 or 3 miles long ( I live in Michigan and the bridge/tunnel goes across/underneath the Detroit river ) and all of a sudden it's cleaner , safer etc!

That just makes no sense! Then to have people telling me I live in the greatest country in the world on top of that

We f*cked up somewhere!

 

[MCM]

This is pathetic.
Victim mentality, Holier than though attitudes, etc.
This will be looked back on as nothing more than a hick up, part of a natural economic cycle.
Now get over it and move forward.
This is still the place to be.
If your not happy with your situation, change it.
You still have your freedom, just might be taking it for granted a bit.


"If I were you guys, I'd buy gold!" A year late on that one............

[/IMG]

 

[Red]

This is pathetic.
Victim mentality, Holier than though attitudes, etc.
This will be looked back on as nothing more than a hick up, part of a natural economic cycle.
Now get over it and move forward.
This is still the place to be.
If your not happy with your situation, change it.
You still have your freedom, just might be taking it for granted a bit.

You're right! Considering most of us haven't lived through the great depression or the Plague, both of those look like "hiccups" from my 6 year old's perspective.

I'd love to change things, 1st I'd draft legislation for Executive compensation for public companies (Why make CPA's liable for some things and give CEOs who tank companies big bonuses?), then Bank reform, then I'd make the unconstitutional wiretapping illegal, then I'd wake up and realize that I'm just a guy from Canada and the media's evolution to "news-tainment" and the Government's willingness to allow their own agenda to outweigh the will of the people and the basics set out by the framers make me powerless - so what I'll do is invest overseas - which won't help the US economy in this hiccup, will it?

 

[Red]

What % is it though? I'm curious.

Top marginal tax rate (income tax) is 47% now in Canada - sadly we have provincial tax (except oil rich Albert - the f-ers) and GST which adds to about 14% on purchases.

Forgive my language ,but that p*sses me the f*ck off! How the hell is it that I can go across a gahdamn bridge that's only like 2 or 3 miles long ( I live in Michigan and the bridge/tunnel goes across/underneath the Detroit river ) and all of a sudden it's cleaner , safer etc!

That just makes no sense! Then to have people telling me I live in the greatest country in the world on top of that

We f*cked up somewhere!

I wouldn't describe Windsor as the "pride of Canadian cities" but for Americans they do have some nice peeler bars and a casino there!:wink:

One thing is for sure, you're less likely to see gun crime, you can park your NSX without worrying too much, and if you get sick, any hospital will take you - but you will have to wait for an MRI.

Key reasons in my mind:
1) Lack of "punitive nature" - if you get hurt, slip and fall, malpractice, etc. you can sue, but it won't be a "lottery win" instead, it will be money to "make you whole" (ie. back to the condition you were in before the accident, or so you can live the same way) - this drops insurance costs and "fear" of people taking advantage - calms people down.
2) Guns - they're not a right here - we don't feel entitled to have guns and part of that reduces violence overall since we don't see "a right to defend ourselves" - my theory, if you don't spend time thinking about/planning your defense you don't get to the point of wanting to try it out.
3) Our society tends to leave people alone to live their lives, whether it be gay marriage, abortion, small amounts of pot or driving a nice car and being black - we just don't seem to care as much, so we leave you alone to do your own thing. (exception: driving a highly modded car and being young can lead to traffic stops these days)
4) Multiculturalism - we invite people to come here from around the world and continue to speak in their native language and follow their native traditions - thats why Toronto has the largest: Chinese community outside of China, Greek community, Italian community, etc. - certainly more came to America, but they blended in and disappeared, where our groups stuck together and helped each other grow communities - communities which don't tolerate crime, bad behavior or anything that lowers property values.
5) Our girls are hotter - its just a simple fact - in an environment where pot is readily available and hotties are abundant you'll find more people making love not war.:wink:
6) Our multi-colored money - it seems like play money, so we don't mind spending it in large quantities to buy stuff you guys pay way less for (like cars and electronics and food and...) I see the US is going to multi-colored money now - oops!:biggrin:

 

[Ski_Banker]

Quick update

No problem - 14.61%
~6 Month stuggle - 29.21%
Real recession - 41.57%
Depression - 14.61%


Interesting to see how this changes over the next few months.

 

[LJSB]

but oil prices didn't start going up until the invasion of Iraq and haven't gone back to what they were since. You know plus it's this funny thing that ever since an Oil man from Texas got into office that's the commodity that has gone up the most.

Post Katrina was to my recollection the first real increase.

Not directing this to you WingZ but, blaming Presidents is easy and anyone can do it.
Blaming a sitting President for our problems and doing so even after they're gone is a tradition here in the U.S.A.
Democrat or Republicans twist it whatever way that suits them.

One Party always blames the other for the big mess they left them and how much time they are going to need to straighten things out so they ask us please keep them in their jobs.

If they still fall short they say it's because of the opposition so please put more of our party in power. Then, even if in the majority, they come back with how big of a mess things were left in and how new problems are hindering them. "Please", they say, "give us more time and money and we'll fix it", but they never do.

Wanting the government to legislate so that your life is easier and financially secure is what people seem to demand and expect.
We have have gone from being self reliant, fiercely private and independent citizens to expecting the government to think for and take care of us.

 

[Ski_Banker]

Any other thoughts on this old thread?

 

[CL65 Captain]

Any other thoughts on this old thread?

Unemployment between 10-12%. Hyperinflation. The dollar will lose 75% of its value over the next 2-3 years. Weed will be legalized and taxed, White Castles will be $14.95 each and Sarah Palin will not be the President in 2012.

 

[Ski_Banker]

Unemployment between 10-12%. Hyperinflation. The dollar will lose 75% of its value over the next 2-3 years. Weed will be legalized and taxed and Sarah Palin will not be the President in 2012.

Lol.

Reminds me of the Dumb & Dumber line

"...So you're telling me there's a chance!..." :biggrin:

 

[sahtt]

So Ski, what's it going to be, inflation or deflation. The only thing I'm sure of is there won't be any in between. I'm just pissed off that I didn't stay aggressively short longer. Whoever says greed is a bad thing probably doesn't have an F40 in the garage and 100 mil in the bank.

 

[Ski_Banker]

So Ski, what's it going to be, inflation or deflation. The only thing I'm sure of is there won't be any in between. I'm just pissed off that I didn't stay aggressively short longer. Whoever says greed is a bad thing probably doesn't have an F40 in the garage and 100 mil in the bank.

Inflation. FX rates won't be dramatically impacted amongst the major currencies though because all of the developed economies are (or will be) using fiscal stimulus in a coordinated fashion. The inflation won't start to show up until next year though, when the credit contraction-induced deflation abates.

Around the world, the value of paper/financial assets will decline relative to the value of physical assets. Debt-financed real estate, ironically enough, and gold will be the best stores of value in the coming year(s).