I've been giving this some thought, and the failure modes I can come up with for a bearing are:
- Excessive loading
- Excessive heat
- Manufacturing defect
- Excessive\insufficient preload on the inner\outer race, radially
- Excessive\insufficient preload axially
I think we can rule out excessive loading , since the other wheel bearings aren't failing. Heat is also an unlikely cause, since the other rear wheel bearing sees similar temperatures. Multiple bearings would indicate it's not a manufacturing defect.
I would guess it's a preload issue, either radially or axially. Given that the upright and hub haven't changed they might be in question, but I think the most likely culprit is the axle nut backing off and un-preloading the bearing. I saw a thread where others had an issue with the
axle nuts backing off, might make sense to check your witness mark between the axle and nut after every session and re-torque if necessary.