No new NSX? Hope fades after Uehara comments.

[MAKO]

Just as there's been "guessing" as you called it Ken about a true replacement for the same amount of years. Only this time you have the NSX's lead engineer himself commenting in very negative way regarding both HP and displacement improvements.

Read between the lines people, Honda isn't about to spend $750M+ in upfront costs to design and produce another high end sports car that won't sell over 200 units a year. It's not rocket science. The current NSX is still a nice showpiece for Honda, and probably doesn't lose as much money per unit sold as we all think due to the fact that the major factory costs have been amortirized long ago thanks to other projects being built there (S2000, Hybrids, etc).

But likewise, that low volume flagship status surely doesn't justify spending upwards of a billion dollars to fully R+D a new model that won't sell in the thousands-per-year category as Ferrari's 360 currently does.

And while I may be saddened by these facts, (yes FACTS) I remain loyal to the first gen NSX's accomplishments and the likely hybrid sports sedan that's being readied as we debate a dead issue. Truthfully, given a budget of $100k or less, there's still not a car I'd rather own than a nice NSX-T with a few mods, and I'd bet many of you feel the same way.

[This message has been edited by MAKO (edited 25 November 2002).]

 

[nsxtasy]

Gee, MAKO - or should I call you Nostradamus? - it must be nice for you to know all the universal truths and so-called "facts" in the universe - including decisions that the folks at Honda may not even have finalized yet, and certainly haven't announced to anyone, including you. Obviously you have telepathic powers that enable you to infer a whole lot more from someone's refusal to answer a question than most folks can.

[This message has been edited by nsxtasy (edited 25 November 2002).]

 

[Ponyboy]

As much fun as it is to predict the future of the NSX, it's all just guessing and trying to interpret implications and blah blah blah.

Now, if you CAN really predict the future: tell me if my daughter is going to turn out to be President or the first female F1 driver. Better yet, tell if I'm going to be bald. I'd like to know one way or the other.

 

[8000RPM]

Originally posted by MAKO:

And while I may be saddened by these facts, (yes FACTS)

What facts?

While the opinions and speculation presented in your post may have merit and eventually end up being the probable outcome, they are not facts.

Until Honda makes an official announcement of some sort, there are very few facts to go around in this exercise of guessing and speculation.

 

[Joel]

Originally posted by MAKO:

Read between the lines people....

I refuse to read between the lines because there's nothing between the lines but empty space.

Translation: you're reading NOTHING!

You seem to be panicking and I believe that is exactly Honda's intent. Keeping the people, especially the media, on edge. Why? Because it generates buzz among people--particularly current owners.

"Will they or won't they?" That's great advertisement any way you look at it!

I believe that you're just being a pessimist who is trying to convince yourself that the NSX will be terminated whereby turning the most benevolent comments into something that sounds more drastic just to "support" your claim. You're speculating, plain and simple.

Now if you wish to continue to entertain these thoughts, be my guest. But don't state anything as fact in reference to Uehara's comments. Because quite frankly, he didn't say sh*t!

 

[huckster]

hey there ponyboy, you are going to be ponytail-less. sorry, bald as a crystal ball.

nsx will continue, with a major redesign in 05. will see it in 06-07. that will be the last nsx. the replacement will be radical new technology with a new name. look for that another 15-20yrs later.

dont ask me about the end of the world, you dont really want to know, do you?

sincerely, hucksterdamus

 

[MAKO]

By "facts" I'm referring to the economic realities that are involved in designing, producing, and marketing a next generation super car.

Here is reality as I see it in terms of a next-gen NSX, or lack there of:

1. Honda's CEO states that there are no 8-cylinder engines in the company's immediate future unless the company felt they could dramatically outperform their competitors in terms of lowering emissions levels and improving fuel economy.

2. The lead NSX and S2000 engineer expresses to NSX 2002 Fiesta attendees doubt that more than 290hp in a sports car is ever warranted, both due to a lack of driver education and the possible balance of the car being disrupted due to weight.

3. An all new 2-seat sports car from Honda or any other auto manufacturer that could compete with say a 360 Modena or a Porcshe 911 Turbo would cost in excess of $750M to bring to market from scratch, and could easily climb to $1B+ due to literally the hundreds of various factors involved.

4. Honda's current F1 engine program has had difficulty finding success in terms of both reliability and performance over the past two seasons, which is in direct contrast to the dominant F1 position the company was in during 1980s when the original NSX design was green lighted in order to capitalize on that success.

5. The yen is so depressed against the dollar, and has been for so long, that Japanese auto companies continue to make headlines with diminishing profit levels regardless of how well their overall sales volume increases. Great article on Toyota's woes in this regard last month in the Wall St. Journal. Fascinating how you can have the right products, the right prices, the right profit margin, and still get killed for months on end due to fluctuation in currencies.

6. The dominant sports car that enthusiasts lust after in the all-important 18 to 35 year old demographic is not an NSX...It's an S2000. A car that makes Honda a nice chunk of margin even at a "low" $32K MSRP, and sells out year after year without much marketing cost. The S2000 has managed to do something that the NSX never did...Sell MORE units in its second and third years than it did in its first.

Let me sum up my thoughts about this turn of events with a final scenario for you all.

YOU'RE now in charge of Honda of Japan.

YOU oversee the decisions that can make or break your company over the next decade. You hold in your hands the responsibility of the livelihood and wage earning potential for close to 100,000 Japanese and American families who work in your production plants. You know everytime you have a decision to make that a simple mistake in judgment could allow a recently resurgent Nissan and monstrous leviathan Toyota to eat into your marketshare almost immediately.

Now it's not about just fast cars and other smaller matters, it's about keeping your workforce employed, keeping your accountant happy, keeping your company growing, and keeping the sharks away from YOU and nearly a quarter million other people's feet.

Knowing this, what would YOU do? Would you sign your name to a possible $1B+ expenditure in revising, revolutionizing, and releasing a brand new ultra-performance NSX that seats only two people, and would compete directly with the world's most famous brands (Porsche and Ferrari)? Would you roll the dice and gamble the possible future of so many on an idea that had previously failed economically even when your company was at the top of the heap in terms of worldwide F1 performance and recognition? Would you be so quick to act out in challenging Ferrari who now holds that same premier perception spot and actually has a three year waiting list going for their sport car that you're confident you can outsell?

OR

Would you possibly decide on a less radical, less risky path that has the potential to grow your company in an entirely different direction in terms of public perception? Maybe you'd be more inclined to look HARD at the plans for a hybrid powered 360+HP Acura RL that could deliver 42MPG and seat four people while throwing down a 13.8 - 14.2 second quarter mile time. HARD. You'd have the knowledge based on your company’s previous success in that actual segment that lets you almost guarantee future success in a sector that will be fought over with the likes of the BMW 330i, Cadillac CTS-V, Audi S4, and Toyota IS430 series from the competition.

What would you do?

I, like most of you have grown up my entire life loving sports cars from all manufacturers, memorizing useless performance stats and specs out of magazines to pass the teen years, dreaming about their swoopy lines and exhilarating acceleration while going through college, and now finally parking two of them in my garage in a house that I own at the age of 31. But no matter how hard I try, I can't see myself in the scenario mentioned above taking the risk that's involved with the fickle ever-changing 2-seat sports coupe market. Not in this economy, not with the currency problems of the yen, not with so many people looking to me to put food on their kid's table.

I still hope that Honda can find a way for a next-gen NSX to come to market and actually sell, but I believe strongly they won't make the same mistake twice. The alternative is too easy, just continue on with more hot selling S2000 based models, and bring out a revolutionary hybrid sports sedan that appeals to a market that is over 10X as large as the market for 2-seat sports cars.

 

[1HOT NSX]

Mako,

I couldn't agree with you more. What you wrote is almost a perfect analysis of the forces that will decide whether or not a new NSX will be produced. I'm with you in betting that another NSX will not be coming from Honda. A replacement at the $40-$50K level to compete with the Boxster yes, but a Porsche TT/ Ferrari 360 killer, no way. If they do make one, they'll lose a pile of money and the scenario you presented will certainly become a reality for those involved in the decision to make it.

 

[Jimbo]

Here's what I would do at the present time.

If Honda's NOT going to use a V8 in the RL replacement...

I would keep updating the current NSX as best I could.

To my way of thinking that would mean a i-VTEC V6 perhaps with forced induction. 350 HP should be easy to achieve. Use an existing Honda V6 block as a base to help keeps costs down and to help pay for the forced induction setup.

Update the brakes. Perhaps a Brembo setup like the new Z.

Update the interior a bit. A new sound system. A HUD. Perhaps a bit more headroom.

Spread it out over a number of years. Do the cosmetic exterior stuff first (i.e. 2002).

Do my best to lighten the car wherever possible.

Try to keep the pricing competitive with the 911.

-Jim

------------------
1992 NSX Red/Blk 5 spd #0330
1991 NSX Blk/Blk Auto #3070 (Sold)
1974 Vette 454 4 spd Wht/Blk
1976 Honda Accord 5 spd, 3 door Blue/Blue
1977 Honda Accord - Custom - Under Construction
1986 Chevy Suburban
http://homepage.mac.com/jimanders/PhotoAlbum1.html

 

[MvM]

Jimbo,

I'm with you on this most of the time. The new 2002 NSX seems to be selling better than last year, at least in the US (don't know about Japan and Europe). The changes made are a lot less expensive than a completely new model. Porsche has been able to keep the 911 for decades now, improving continuously on an old model. Don't forget that Porsche simply didn't have the money to build an entirely new car but did have enough to make improvements. It has kept them in business.
I think it would be possible to keep refining the NSX. Improve the interior (much needed), improve handling (if possible) and most of all improve the engine. The current engine is a good one but I think it wouldn't be difficult for Honda to tune it for more HP and torque. Now it's 290HP. Make it 330HP next year and say 350HP in 2004. Maybe go from 3.2 to 3.4 to 3.5. Why not? These changes are not that bit. Maybe change some parts for ones in CF or other materials to lighten the car. Improve the performance numbers, add modern technology even if it doesn't really make sense to some. Keep the Xenon lights. Go to LED's for the rear- and brake-lights. Add a good CD/MP3 or DVD-player as standard or option. Add sport-seats as optional and/or seats which are other than leather-covered. Add a board-computer, heated mirrors, things like that to give people the feel that the NSX really is a show-case model. The basic NSX is still a very good car (I think) so why throw away a good package if there is still room for improvement?

 

[gheba_nsx]

Ponyboy, nothing to add to the Nostradamus conversation but regarding to this:

"the first female F1 driver"

I think your daughter will be late for this award

Maria Teresa de Filippis (Italy) was the first ever women F1 driver when she competed in three Grand Prix in 1958 at the wheel of a Maserati 250F, with a best result of tenth on her debut in Belgium.

The last one was the italian Giovanna Amati who drove for Brabham team in 1993, just before the team closed.

 

[gheba_nsx]

MvM, your changes and Jimbo's proposed ones would be VERY exepensive... I am sure in the order of 10-20 mio U$. I do not know if you are familiar with the production processes but after having worked in some big companies and having seen how things goes, I would really approximate for that amount.
To make a profit out of it the NSX price would raise of at least 15'000$!

And for 90% of the car people it would still be a "non new nsx" but a facelifted and slightly more powerful one. IMO (emphasis on the "MY OPINION") = a commercial disaster!

Furthermore I remember hearing that improving the engine size to 3.5l would be almost impossible on the actual design...

 

[MvM]

Gheba,
I think the more cosmetic changes would not cost to much.
Upgraded stereo would be fairly simple, especially since modern units can be fit into a smaller space than older ones. CD/DVD-player could be fitted like ones that have been fitted by owners themselves and still look good.
Board-computer would be fairly simple. Just take an existing one in my opinion.
CF parts are indeed expensive. I will agree on that.
Performance mods would be the most expensive, I agree. But then it would be way cheaper than designing a completely new car. And even as it is now I think the 3.2 block has room for improvement.

 

[NetViper]

I have said it once, and I will say it again, Honda needs to offer a SC as a factory option. They have a good relationship with comptech, and that easily makes the car competitive with a 360, Lotus V8, Porsche TT and Z06. It is a SIMPLE fix that would shut up the magazines and other people who say the NSX is too slow.

As far as the interior, all they need is to remove that ancient tape deck and replace it with an in-dash CD player. Maybe they could add a couple more storage spots. Other than that, I think it is perfect.

Brembo's would also be a nice factory option and it seems to be the "in" thing to do.

The most expensive change here would be the in-dash cd player. Brembo's are easy to get and so is the comptech SC.

Those are three simple steps to increasing NSX sales and earning more respect.

Why dont they do it? I have NO idea.

 

[nsxtasy]

Originally posted by MAKO:
Japanese auto companies continue to make headlines with diminishing profit levels regardless of how well their overall sales volume increases.

That's not true of Honda.

As Forbes noted earlier this month,

"In the auto world, there is only one way to make a lot of money: Keep your factories humming and sell everything you make, something at which Honda excels. According to the most recent Harbour Report on automotive manufacturing, Honda's North American plants ran at 100% of capacity last year, the highest in the industry. Toyota was second, at 96%, and Nissan was third, at 89%. Not surprisingly, Honda made more money per car than any other automaker, $1,661. That's nearly $400 more per car than Nissan Motor and $500 more than Toyota. GM was the only domestic producer to make money: just $337 per car. Ford Motor? It lost $1,913.

Last year was Honda's eighth consecutive record sales year. The Accord dethroned the Toyota Camry as the best-selling car in the U.S., and U.S. sales surged by 40,000 cars in an overall down year for the industry, sending its market share to an all-time high of 7%. In Japan, Honda surpassed Nissan as the number-two automaker and was the only major automaker to increase sales. Its subcompact Fit is on track to be the best-selling car in Japan this year. Honda's bottom line was appropriately fat: It earned $2.8 billion last year, more than four times the $601 million GM managed to turn out with three times Honda's sales.

Even after revising downward its sales and profit figures for this year in late October, Honda still expects to post another record at the end of its fiscal year in March. Profit is expected to grow 13% on the back of five new vehicles."

Originally posted by MAKO:
6. The dominant sports car that enthusiasts lust after in the all-important 18 to 35 year old demographic is not an NSX...It's an S2000.

No, it isn't. It's the NSX.

Bring an S2000 and an NSX to an activity that appeals to that demographic, especially one that is automotive related, and see which one attracts all the attention. It will be the NSX, guaranteed - not the S2000.

Originally posted by MAKO:
YOU'RE now in charge of Honda of Japan.

Knowing this, what would YOU do?

I would have discontinued the NSX in 1994. Based on all the financials, that was the only logical financial decision to make. However, there are other reasons to make a different decision - the reputation of the manufacturer and the car's use as a "halo car", for example. And those other reasons can result in a different decision than simply looking at what makes the most money for a particular model.

Originally posted by MAKO:
MvM, your changes and Jimbo's proposed ones would be VERY exepensive... I am sure in the order of 10-20 mio U$. I do not know if you are familiar with the production processes but after having worked in some big companies and having seen how things goes, I would really approximate for that amount.
To make a profit out of it the NSX price would raise of at least 15'000$!

Again, those are only the financial aspects of the decision. Based on the finances, Honda never should have spent millions of dollars to refresh the 2002-2003 NSX, in order to sell 400 cars. The redesign undoubtedly cost something on the order of your figure, $15,000 per car. And yet they did it. Why? I'm not sure - but it's something they probably wouldn't have done if they plan to discontinue the car.

Originally posted by NetViper:
The most expensive change here would be the in-dash cd player. Brembo's are easy to get and so is the comptech SC.

Those are three simple steps to increasing NSX sales and earning more respect.

Why dont they do it? I have NO idea.

I do. Honda is very, very, VERY careful about not introducing any change unless they are certain that it will maintain their reputation for bulletproof reliability. While the Comptech unit has more installations out there than the other options, I suspect that they don't feel it's ready to be put in a Honda.

As far as the other two changes you suggest, I suspect they see the in-dash CD player and the Brembo brakes as only slight changes, since the car already has a trunk-mounted CD player and the stock brakes are very very good, and that such changes are not significant enough to justify the development costs to implement them.

Of course, these are only my GUESSES. Please don't confuse them with facts.

 

[gheba_nsx]

I am still convinced that 50% of the difficulty to sell the NSX relies exactely in the fact that it is a Honda and not something that you can brag about when speaking. Sad but true. (..and again IMO)

 

[nsxtasy]

Originally posted by gheba_nsx:
I am still convinced that 50% of the difficulty to sell the NSX relies exactely in the fact that it is a Honda and not something that you can brag about when speaking. Sad but true. (..and again IMO)

That may be more of a problem in Europe than in North America. Here, Honda has the best reputation of any non-luxury marque, and is particularly known for quality, reliability, and value. Many of its vehicles, including the Accord (family sedan), Civic (subcompact), Odyssey (minivan), and MD-X (midsize SUV), are widely considered the best in their class. Acura is known as a luxury marque, and while it may not have quite as much prestige as Mercedes or BMW or Lexus, it is still very highly regarded.

 

[Lud]

Originally posted by NetViper:
I have said it once, and I will say it again, Honda needs to offer a SC as a factory option.

Why dont they do it? I have NO idea.

Honda considered and dismissed the idea of forced induction for the NSX when they initially designed it. They were (and are) determined to produce it as a naturally aspirated car. I seriously doubt they will ever offer a forced induction option from the factory. It is not in line with their way of thinking.

At the time (well over a decade ago) I believe this was the right decision to design the car the way they did. Unfortunately, these days their line of thinking about the NSX only seems to only make sense to a few hundred new NSX customers a year in the entire world... and even then most are sold a good bit below sticker price, at least in the US.

The NSX clearly enjoys "pet project" status of infuential decision makers within Honda. I have not researched it, but I am pretty certain the NSX is the biggest sales failure of any major auto manufacturer. I have never heard of a major manufacturer keeping a model that sells in the hundreds of units a year. Heck, even the successful specialty manufacturers sell more cars... Bently sells 2000 a year and Ferrari sold over 4000 last year, and they both CAP their production at those numbers to keep demand high. In fact Ferrari pre-sold about as many $650,000 Enzos as Honda can sell NSXs in an entire year.

It seems obvious that this should be a big red flag to someone at Honda that they are out of touch with the market. The have been completely adrift with the NSX for years because they do not know how to position and market it. They do not know who their customers are (outside Japan at least) beyond some basic demographics, or how to make the car appeal to a wider group.

It's the Betamax of sports cars: Technically superior but with almost no market share.

If Uehara and the rest of the team don't think the NSX needs more power and they are not prepared to go to a composite body or some other drastic measure to reduce weight by 25% or more, I think it is safe to say we will continue to see the same laughable sales volume until Honda hits a financial down-turn and starts looking for places to cut the bleeding, at which point there will probably be enough pressure to cause them to pull the plug on the project.

Honda absolutely needs a V8. They need to put a 450+ HP version in the next NSX and a 325+ HP version in the next RL. I think that, along with a rear wheel drive configuration, would be a good first step in livening up the boooooring RL and boosting sales... Even in it's best year the RL has never sold as many as the Legend in its worst year, and right now sells about 1/6 as many as the Legend sold at it's peak. That's right, one sixth... really sad. They could also offer a V8 option in the MDX and Pilot which I think would be pretty popular.

Of course that's just my opinion.

[This message has been edited by Lud (edited 26 November 2002).]

 

[gheba_nsx]

Nsxstasy, that is very likely (judging also by the total number of NSX sold in the US against the one sold in Europe in the last 12 years)...
However if I speak about the Switzerland case, I think here we have probably the highest number of NSX per person (by taking a country and not a city-country like Monaco or Hong Kong) with about 270 NSX for 6 mio persons. Most of these NSX were sold in '91/'92, I would say 90%. This happened because the car market here is very "brag" oriented. People buys new cars and cars that show prestige and status (again: it may be sad but is the reality). In 1991/92 the NSX was a cool toy to have... after it cooled down people moved on: F355, 911-996, 911-TT, F360 and at the moment the trend is all in expensive overpowered family cars (RS4, M5, X5 and I am sure the Cayenne Turbo will sell like hot cakes here...

).

The NSX, even with more power, would still be seen as the "Honda that looks like a Ferrari". Was fun when a new thing 12 years ago... not anymore now.

PS: the NSX-T and the 3.2l '97+ introduction boith left people very very cold and let the sale number very close to zero.

Maybe I should move in California (my car there would also be driven instead of waiting for the Spring)

 

[Silver F16]

The reason Honda keep singing the same song is because they do not know how to make a high powered V8 and build a light weight body around it.

"Too much power distrupts the balance of the car". Yea right, I'm sure that's what Ferrari was thinking with the F360.

 

[NetViper]

Originally posted by Silver F16:
The reason Honda keep singing the same song is because they do not know how to make a high powered V8 and build a light weight body around it.

I am pretty sure they know how to do it, they just chose not to.

 

[NSX-GUY]

Didn't I read a while ago that the NSX is a "rolling testbed" of Honda's best technology and it's built to show what they can do. ?

As a hand-built car with an aluminum body and a sophisticated VTEC engine, etc, etc it's not meant to be a moneymaker.

OTOH, with corporate belt tightening becoming a way of life, who knows ?

I think the old (?) rumors of a $60K NSX with steel body etc would be the most likely scenario if the economic world as it is today stays this way for any length of time.

 

[92 white 0650]

Gotta go with Lud on this one. Normal business logic doesn't apply to this part of Honda. Get used to it. I kind of enjoy it now.

I like to read between the lines of the human side of business. There are obviously a few strong personalities in Honda. They apparently have the luxury to champion and control their own pet programs. Being strong personalities, they are also quirky and take things personally. Look at how the politics of CART changed their whole engine program. In a nutshell, they were alienated by poor CART management a year ago. This season, their last obligation, they let their engines go from state of the art to the laughing stock of the series.

And didn't they build at least 2 prototypes of business jets several years ago? How much did they throw away on that effort? I'm sure their engineers didn't throw in the towel. My theory is that the "champion" just chose to.

They are just not predictable with fringe programs, of which the NSX is one.

 

[hgunnerz]

Originally posted by NetViper:
I have said it once, and I will say it again, Honda needs to offer a SC as a factory option. They have a good relationship with comptech, and that easily makes the car competitive with a 360, Lotus V8, Porsche TT and Z06. It is a SIMPLE fix that would shut up the magazines and other people who say the NSX is too slow.

As far as the interior, all they need is to remove that ancient tape deck and replace it with an in-dash CD player. Maybe they could add a couple more storage spots. Other than that, I think it is perfect.

Brembo's would also be a nice factory option and it seems to be the "in" thing to do.

The most expensive change here would be the in-dash cd player. Brembo's are easy to get and so is the comptech SC.

Those are three simple steps to increasing NSX sales and earning more respect.

Why dont they do it? I have NO idea.

Exactly, I agree but I think Lud is right, Honda itself is too conservative for forced induction.

The only way I can see this is if there was a "tuner" car. Pontiac has SLP, Mercedes has AMG, Porche has RUF.

Comptech, Basch? Some one like that? Or how about a dealership sponsered aftermarket car like the Yenko Camaro's of late 60's (a Yenko NSX?). Dealerships have the added advantage of infastructure and the capability to warranty the product.

One side benafit, producing any special version also heats up the collectability of our cars. 20 years from now a Comptech NSX or Basch NSX or even a Yenko NSX (if they existed) will be highly desired and valued.

Producing a tuner will make a splash in the press again, and most certainly sell a bunch more NSXs. The only downside is corporate image and liability issues from Honda's prospective if something went wrong. But if someone did this now, and Honda gave them the OK, Honda really has little to loose. They are already commited to the current generation for a few more years and it would be pretty hard to loose market share don't you think?

I believe the target market for the NSX (now and in the future) is very similar to the Porche 996, not the boxter. The S2000 is, and will continue to be Honda's answer to the Porche boxter.
Maybe Honda is looking to Porche for a model of product lifecycle. A base platform (the 911) for many years based on a 6 cyl. motor with continued refinements over many many years. Two big differences, Porche has turbos and RUF.

JMO..

hg

 

[Jimbo]

Honda has in the past used forced induction (i.e. turbo) in order to meet performance goals.

-Jim

------------------
1992 NSX Red/Blk 5 spd #0330
1991 NSX Blk/Blk Auto #3070 (Sold)
1974 Vette 454 4 spd Wht/Blk
1976 Honda Accord 5 spd, 3 door Blue/Blue
1977 Honda Accord - Custom - Under Construction
1986 Chevy Suburban
http://homepage.mac.com/jimanders/PhotoAlbum1.html