How 'bout that stock market?
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
- Start date
Shares of Ford at $1.99?
Wow. When does martial law kick in?
Wow. When does martial law kick in?
i mentioned to a friend early this morning that we could see f @1.50 in the near future if things got really, um, challenging.
i don't get the uptick in aapl given consumer sentiment, but i must be thinking wrong.
Someone told me long ago, there's a calm before the storm.
I know, and it's been comin' for some time.
When it's over, so they say, it'll rain a sunny day.
I know, shinin' down like water.
I want to know, have you ever seen the rain?
I want to know, have you ever seen the rain
Comin' down on a sunny day?
Yesterday, and days before, sun is cold and rain is hard.
I know, been that way for all my time.
'Til forever on it goes through the circle fast and slow,
I know, and it can't stop, I wonder.
I want to know, have you ever seen the rain?
I want to know, have you ever seen the rain
Comin' down on a sunny day?
I know, and it's been comin' for some time.
When it's over, so they say, it'll rain a sunny day.
I know, shinin' down like water.
I want to know, have you ever seen the rain?
I want to know, have you ever seen the rain
Comin' down on a sunny day?
Yesterday, and days before, sun is cold and rain is hard.
I know, been that way for all my time.
'Til forever on it goes through the circle fast and slow,
I know, and it can't stop, I wonder.
I want to know, have you ever seen the rain?
I want to know, have you ever seen the rain
Comin' down on a sunny day?
A picture is worth a 1000 words...
People don't seem to grasp why i'm screaming not to buy here and how this is different from anything we've seen before. So I thought I would give you the illustrated version... Let me ask you gents - do you see anything on the chart that looks REMOTELY close to this downturn? Is it not visually obvious that we are dealing with something here fundamentally different from any market downturn before?
People don't seem to grasp why i'm screaming not to buy here and how this is different from anything we've seen before. So I thought I would give you the illustrated version... Let me ask you gents - do you see anything on the chart that looks REMOTELY close to this downturn? Is it not visually obvious that we are dealing with something here fundamentally different from any market downturn before?
Small addendum...
This is why i'm so concerned from a technician standpoint... This pattern is a CLASSIC reversal pattern I look for and I play day in and day out in every market, stock, currency in the world... Trendline break, Fibonacci break, and they tank...
See the SAME setup in the dow that is happening in the second picture in the S&P 500 on an intraday basis... From a technicians standpoint, the setup would indicate that this thing is going to tank... if i didn't know it was a chart of $INDU and It said GE at the top i'd be shorting the hell out of it.
Monthly Chart of Dow:
5 Minute Chart of S&P 500 Example:
See the similarity here folks? Its the same setup.
This is why i'm so concerned from a technician standpoint... This pattern is a CLASSIC reversal pattern I look for and I play day in and day out in every market, stock, currency in the world... Trendline break, Fibonacci break, and they tank...
See the SAME setup in the dow that is happening in the second picture in the S&P 500 on an intraday basis... From a technicians standpoint, the setup would indicate that this thing is going to tank... if i didn't know it was a chart of $INDU and It said GE at the top i'd be shorting the hell out of it.
Monthly Chart of Dow:
5 Minute Chart of S&P 500 Example:
See the similarity here folks? Its the same setup.
The NYSE is open on Columbus Day, the Gov't and Bond Markets are closed!
This was my best week trading but it's hard to enjoy. We will be talking about these past few weeks and the next few weeks for a long, long time to come.
I wish you guys could feel what it felt like on the trading floor as the DOW crumbled early in the day. We don't "call" where things are going because that's not important, but many people felt we would hit the circuit breakers for sure within seconds, we came very close. Some big money jumped in at 8k but I think a lot of it also got out of the market slowly based on the NYSE prints I saw going in at 8k and going out as the market dwindled from the highs.
Bunch of guys made $$$,$$$ off BRK.A/BRK.B this morning, it had a 1k print you could jump on.
1,000 points X 100 shares = $100,000. A few had a lot* more then that.
I wish you guys could feel what it felt like on the trading floor as the DOW crumbled early in the day. We don't "call" where things are going because that's not important, but many people felt we would hit the circuit breakers for sure within seconds, we came very close. Some big money jumped in at 8k but I think a lot of it also got out of the market slowly based on the NYSE prints I saw going in at 8k and going out as the market dwindled from the highs.
Bunch of guys made $$$,$$$ off BRK.A/BRK.B this morning, it had a 1k print you could jump on.
1,000 points X 100 shares = $100,000. A few had a lot* more then that.
What do you guys think about AAPL (Apple)?
Been looking at it for a few days now. Buy or no buy?
Been looking at it for a few days now. Buy or no buy?
I would do a 2 leg put spread on aapl before I bought the stock. Actually I did do a spread on it when it broke 100.
If jobs dies you're screwed if you own the shares so I wouldn't want to own the shares although I think it's a great deal here. I would rather have the low risk of a put spread.
OR
you could buy the stock and sell the calls.
There doesn't seem to be any logic in the market. Nothing can be predicted, even one hour in advance.
There isn't any real money in the market, just a bunch of promises. When you sell bad loans over and over and then insure buy AiG, then AIG goes broke, everyone pays as panic takes over.
We are now learning that the bad loans have been re-sold many times outside the US.
As well, the US debit is backed by China. When are they going to call those loans??
The problem gets more complicated now that the world has the US to blame for the start of this. I am not saying that is the case, but it really is the perception. This is not what the US needs right now. The US is disliked throughout the world. Another reason is not good. There are people in the world enjoying the fact that the US is in finacial distress.
Cash is king, however few Americans have cash.There are a lot of reasons why the bottom of this market is a ways away yet.
There isn't any real money in the market, just a bunch of promises. When you sell bad loans over and over and then insure buy AiG, then AIG goes broke, everyone pays as panic takes over.
We are now learning that the bad loans have been re-sold many times outside the US.
As well, the US debit is backed by China. When are they going to call those loans??
The problem gets more complicated now that the world has the US to blame for the start of this. I am not saying that is the case, but it really is the perception. This is not what the US needs right now. The US is disliked throughout the world. Another reason is not good. There are people in the world enjoying the fact that the US is in finacial distress.
Cash is king, however few Americans have cash.There are a lot of reasons why the bottom of this market is a ways away yet.
Yep, my biggest concern is war not money. Just imagine how pissed someone is if they buy a car with a bad tranmission or something. Now think how pissed they would be if they bought billions of bad debt.
I really hope this doesn't go that far. All the young guys who do work for us are in panic that a world war will break out over this.
Not that simple. What's your risk tolerance? AAPL can go to 50$, maybe lower. It could also be at 125 next friday.
Personally, I already own the stock and starting a position once it broke through 120. I bought at 88$ again recently. If I didn't have a position and knew what I know now, I'd wait for it to break 100, then sell the damn thing if it goes under 100 by more than a couple bucks to keep your risk very low.
Regardless of what you do, don't buy more than a quarter of the total amount you want to own. If you don't do that you will be slaughtered as a buyer in this market. This is a fairly high P/E stock with no dividend that's extremely dependent on the consumer that only sells high end products. Also, it's only 50% off its all time highs roughly. Lots of stocks are down 75+%.
Yep, my biggest concern is war not money. Just imagine how pissed someone is if they buy a car with a bad tranmission or something. Now think how pissed they would be if they bought billions of bad debt.
I really hope this doesn't go that far. All the young guys who do work for us are in panic that a world war will break out over this.
I suspect we can kiss Taiwan goodbye. The US won't lift a finger to protect them now. Can’t. China will tell them not to lift a finger.
Or can it lift a finger?
Will it?
Maybe it will!
"Maybe this is exactly what we need" they are thinking. “A WAR!! That’s it!!! That will take people's minds off this mess!”
“So let’s hope China gets mega pissed off and takes Taiwan.”
So, is only this a hypothetical conversation?
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Columbus who?
Massive government spending approved by the citizens is the only thing that can restrain a depression. World Wars serve that purpose well.
Unlike 70 years ago, there are a lot of countries ready to rumble that weren't in the game before. This weekend's meeting of G-7 members will decide the fate our global economy. Inaction is no longer an option.
Ports are now completely shut down due to the dysfunction with Letters of Credit. Commodities and exports of all types are sitting on docks wasting away, it's already been that way for over a week now. Give it another 2-3 weeks and main street will no longer be asking questions about the credit crisis. They will be on the front lines. Those building up ammo reserves and other seemingly "crazy" tactics won't look so crazy when shortages appear. Fortunately we are a net exporter of most food products, beyond that it gets ugly.
Many other nations are not so fortunate. China comes to mind. They need the things currently wasting away on docks around the world and if you don't give a starving man food, he will eventually take it by force.
Unlike 70 years ago, there are a lot of countries ready to rumble that weren't in the game before. This weekend's meeting of G-7 members will decide the fate our global economy. Inaction is no longer an option.
Ports are now completely shut down due to the dysfunction with Letters of Credit. Commodities and exports of all types are sitting on docks wasting away, it's already been that way for over a week now. Give it another 2-3 weeks and main street will no longer be asking questions about the credit crisis. They will be on the front lines. Those building up ammo reserves and other seemingly "crazy" tactics won't look so crazy when shortages appear. Fortunately we are a net exporter of most food products, beyond that it gets ugly.
Many other nations are not so fortunate. China comes to mind. They need the things currently wasting away on docks around the world and if you don't give a starving man food, he will eventually take it by force.
Good point. I might just do that. Purchase a quarter of the amount I wanted to own. Maybe set a purchase price at $85 and if it drops that low I'll buy it and maybe sell it at $100. We'll see this coming week if it drops.
Currently at $96
How's Steve's health now days?
Oh yeah, him.
I checked it out on the internet, and it appears he missed the US completely and hit some islands down in the Caribbean…
Just as well I guess.
Oh,um, he was an investor travelling with investor’s money. Back on topic!
Futures are up significantly. I'll be unloading on my long positions and building hedges as their associated prices become more favorable. Until we bounce off the 50% retracement level I'll be a skeptic.
EEV under 110.. bought. Excellent hedge.
Closed this spread today along with an fcx and ibm spread trade. Bought some MCHX and rolled out calls on GM also rolled out calls on FCX ITM for the pullback I think is coming.
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