I don't know this from that when you're talking about puts and pulls, but if one of you stock geniuses would tell me when it's time to move my 401(k) to bonds, I'd appreciate it. 
How 'bout that stock market?
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
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I don't know this from that when you're talking about puts and pulls, but if one of you stock geniuses would tell me when it's time to move my 401(k) to bonds, I'd appreciate it.
ditto. i can follow most forums the investment one's other than RE are like.... what???????????
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You mean that fund in general, or the energy sector as a whole?
Yes, USO is an interesting case indeed.
Ride it out? Time is money in this business......... :smile: HK is in a period of consolidation right now. Dead money for now. Watch for a break above $16.5 on high volume, it could make a good run after that. One thing I like about the stock is the increase in volume over the past few years. The breakout could be explosive. I still think there are better ones out there though.........
Ski_Banker
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That particular fund/strategy. Not energy as a whole.
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Dead money? After a brief and small decline, it has steadily advanced since I bought it. I've got almost 4 points on it and I didn't even buy it as low as I could have. Every other day it is hitting new intraday and 52 week highs. :biggrin:
Dead money was MSFT trading at 25 bucks a share for 3 years or PFE at 26 for 2.5 years.
Normally I would have taken my profits by now BUT....everytime the CEO speaks he makes it very clear that they are running the operation in hopes of a buyout. Insiders own a very large chunk of stock, and they buy every once in a while.
Which other ones are you keeping your eye on?
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I don't know this from that when you're talking about puts and pulls, but if one of you stock geniuses would tell me when it's time to move my 401(k) to bonds, I'd appreciate it.
We're all dodging this one because as much fundamental knowledge as one may have, you cannot time the market. Experts are debating on market sentiment for the duration of 07. Some say the market is getting scary, some say that there is still room for growth.
You into mutual funds or single stocks or both within your 401?
Before you pull the trigger on some bonds, I'd take a look at some income funds that trade on an Exchange. I mentioned one above, ACG. These will provide some steady growth/income (currently yielding 8%+) with much lower than average risk (65% U.S. gov't securities). This way, you won't have to watch the price of your bonds decrease as interest rates rise. (Who knows when they will start rising, but they only have up to go from here)
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Dow 15,500 at year end.
Right now, I have it at 50% stock funds, 25% balanced stock/bond funds, and 25% bonds. Our Vanguard account doesn't give us the option of single stocks.
When the market seemed to have finished its free-fall back in 2001, I moved my 401(k) to 100% stock funds and left it like that until early this year when I finally let my nervousness get the better of me and moved to diversify as I am now. I'm not terribly worried about it, but can't help but watch in fascination as the market keeps going up.
Ski_Banker
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It's certainly tough to do in the short term - days, weeks, months (irrational selloffs like 2 months ago being an exception) and technical analysis is the only method IMO for those time frames (for market as a whole, not stocks or sectors).
Longer term - 1+ year holding periods - it's not that difficult using true valuation and fundamental analysis techniques. For example, anyone valuing most tech companies in the the late 90's would have seen the coming decline and avoided it. Alternatively, when oil was $8 brl in 1998, it doesn't take a market wizard to know that oil will eventually return to normal and so will the beaten down energy stocks.
Right now, the market *feels* shaky because U.S. stock prices have risen a lot in the last 8 months. But, they were very undervalued before (S&P 500 still is) and had been for several years. P/E is a good metric and right now, at 17x, the S&P seems only a little below historical norms across the business cycle. However, historical norms weren't when global interest rates were 3-5%, and while all other major U.S. asset classes were very expensive (R/E, commodities, bonds...dear god those are overvalued). Just considering interest rates alone -- at historically low rates, stocks should be valued at historically high P/E multiples. Not 17x. This is where SO MANY (including big pension managers) people screw up -- they look at asset classes in a vacuum, not relative to each other.
4/5 of the battle is NOT choosing "the next big investment" -- it's avoiding the next big decline (hence my thoughts on R/E...) in an asset class or stock sector.
Final point -- all the big public to private LBOs you're reading about daily??? Do you think we'd be buying large cap stocks and taking them private if we thought they were OVERvalued??? Umm. No.
Enjoy the ride, we've got a long way to go. :biggrin:
Good post Ski, most keep looking at what they can make. It's not until they worry about what they can lose until they make real money
I got outa the marked about 4 months ago, going into rentals then bigger and better things, 7 years trading = Boring
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Good post Ski, most keep looking at what they can make. It's not until they worry about what they can lose until they make real money
Man if you got out of the market in Jan, you've missed a tremendous ride. True, there was a correction in March, but the S&P has since recovered and then some.
I like your reasoning above. Lots of people seem to think that a good money manager makes you money during bull markets. Any ordinary Joe can do that. The real geniuses continue to generate alpha during downturns and flat market periods.
Oh, and diablo: http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?symbol=hk
Ski_Banker
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Get ready for another one. Will probably originate from emerging markets. :wink:
sounds to me, that some of you commenting on this post may be a 7 with a 66 or a 65. Be very careful about what you are posting. It can come back to haunt you later. I have a buddy who is WAS with my BD get nailed for comments like the ones posted here. If your not a 7/66 or 65, have fun you are safe.
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Its funny. Holding NASD licenses these days can be more of a liability than anything.
I knew a guy who was in retail. One day he had lunch with clients. He gave them some sorry stock tips, they lost money, and they complained to his boss. Compliance fired him and since he was a salaried employee, they made all the FC's hourly so the company didn't have to accept responsibility for bad advice when their reps were "off the clock." Amazing.
Ski_Banker
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BUMP
Perhaps by Q1 '08, but this market is going DOWN for a little while. Correlations across risky asset classes all go to 1 when there is turmoil. And turmoil there is -- the capital markets have all but dried up for the time being. My *guess* is that it will take at least a month for things to settle down, but this credit crunch is for real and some major hedge fund blown ups could really shake things up for a lot longer. Equity valuations are very attractive, but it could take a while for capital markets to stabilize.
This is what I posted on 6speedonline the other day on a similar stock/dow thread. A lot of people over there were touting the "buy the dip" strategy which I think is highly dangerous in this market right now.
I share a slightly more pessimistic view of the market. This thing has been grossly overbought for months now and we went from an uptrend to a period of sideways market action with high volatility for the past two months or so.
Yes it 14,000. It hit it and toyed with it for close to a week, failed to break it and finally broke out of its sideways coil yesterday to the downside. I understand the buy the dip mentality. Most traders operating now days have been so used to buying every dip they do it without thinking because it has worked for them every time in the past. They are conditioned to do the same thing without thinking or regard to the big picture here.
Why are we up in the stratosphere? Did we get some kind of great market driving news that i'm unaware of? Everything i've heard has been quite to the contrary. More than that, T-Notes look very weak and with the Fed not changing interest rates for the time being, that means the T-Notes are going to be compensating for this one their own by jacking up interest rates on mortgages which should only compound the problems in the subprime market and kill off what buying pressure there is in the housing market with higher interest rates.
Trading through the last days was unlike anything i've ever seen. Crazy volatility, crazy ranges, but more importantly, instead of buy programs kicking in on every dip, there were sell programs slapping every lift upwards. Sell pressure on EVERYTHING today.
I'm not saying don't buy, and i'm not saying sell, i'm just saying step back and let see how this unfolds before deciding to do anything. You know how you kill an account? You buy a falling knife, over and over and over and over.
The illustrated version:
Just my .02
... Since I posted that chart, the S&P tested 38% to the downside and failed twice and then sold off hard. I think they will prop the tapes for month end through the end of the month, then its all holds off. Should be a very intresting august... and people say summer trading sucks?! +13 ES points today trading conservative entries hehehehehehe.
I share a slightly more pessimistic view of the market. This thing has been grossly overbought for months now and we went from an uptrend to a period of sideways market action with high volatility for the past two months or so.
Yes it 14,000. It hit it and toyed with it for close to a week, failed to break it and finally broke out of its sideways coil yesterday to the downside. I understand the buy the dip mentality. Most traders operating now days have been so used to buying every dip they do it without thinking because it has worked for them every time in the past. They are conditioned to do the same thing without thinking or regard to the big picture here.
Why are we up in the stratosphere? Did we get some kind of great market driving news that i'm unaware of? Everything i've heard has been quite to the contrary. More than that, T-Notes look very weak and with the Fed not changing interest rates for the time being, that means the T-Notes are going to be compensating for this one their own by jacking up interest rates on mortgages which should only compound the problems in the subprime market and kill off what buying pressure there is in the housing market with higher interest rates.
Trading through the last days was unlike anything i've ever seen. Crazy volatility, crazy ranges, but more importantly, instead of buy programs kicking in on every dip, there were sell programs slapping every lift upwards. Sell pressure on EVERYTHING today.
I'm not saying don't buy, and i'm not saying sell, i'm just saying step back and let see how this unfolds before deciding to do anything. You know how you kill an account? You buy a falling knife, over and over and over and over.
The illustrated version:
Just my .02
... Since I posted that chart, the S&P tested 38% to the downside and failed twice and then sold off hard. I think they will prop the tapes for month end through the end of the month, then its all holds off. Should be a very intresting august... and people say summer trading sucks?! +13 ES points today trading conservative entries hehehehehehe.
What I find very interesting is that a 500 point drop isn't a crash anymore. When I first bought a stock and mutual fund, the DOW was at 7500. Back then a 500 pt drop was a black Monday.
I don't get too excited over a drop anymore. I just top up my RRSP (Canadian 401K) and enjoy the ride back up!
I am starting to see the advantages of realestate investment though. The leverage you can do with a rental is incredible. It's work, but I think I'll be doing more and more investment in realestate.
Good Luck everyone!
I don't get too excited over a drop anymore. I just top up my RRSP (Canadian 401K) and enjoy the ride back up!
I am starting to see the advantages of realestate investment though. The leverage you can do with a rental is incredible. It's work, but I think I'll be doing more and more investment in realestate.
Good Luck everyone!
Ski_Banker
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You HAVE been reading what the underlying cause of this stock market correction has been right? Tightening lending standards! The LAST thing you want to invest in is an asset that is guaranteed to have fewer buyers of in the coming years. Trust me when I say this -- investing in residential real estate in most major markets is a really bad idea, even now as prices have dropped a bit.
Ski_Banker
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And, 24 hours later, another Bear Stearns fund exploded. I hope for the PMs sake that this fund had an investment mandate of making primarily mortgage and CLO investments, because buying this toilet paper voluntarily had *red* written all over it. You could see what is going on right now a mile away.
Things are different here in Canada. We can't get interest only loans, we can't deduct our mortgage interest on our taxes, and our banks are quite centralized and very very stable. We don't have the same problem here, although a slow down in your market has lead to a drop in materials, so new house construction inflation has cooled a little.
RE is hard, I did not enjoy trading but doing RE I think I liked even less. It's funny here in atlanta you can tell all of the people that got the intrest only loans at 3-4% there homes are for sale now, reduced, and been on the market for about 8-12 months.
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