Ski_Banker
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500 pointer out of nowhere! Pretty exciting! :biggrin: 
How 'bout that stock market?
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
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Yes it was a good day for buying!
...and a terrible day to see how much your 401K lost!
perhaps a bit like catching a falling knife, i suspect time will tell on this....
Ski_Banker
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Cover 'em Steve. No basis for today -- just silly panic. U.S. large cap equities market is far from overvalued.
Probably be a panic sell off tomorrow morning. I think Alan G's comments are still in the minds of some people. I will see whats up tomorrow afternoon. I have enough I can sell a few off cover the cost of all and sit on the rest.
Hopefully not.
Im afraid there will be even more people panicking tomorrow though..
:redface:
Today hurt though. Its ok, im not in this for the short term, and have surely gone through a lot of corrections before..
Re: Hmmmmmmm...what could it be?
Comptech closing shop?
Comptech closing shop?
I'm about 70% cash right now.... can't wait for the dust to settle! Will it be a week, month, or months... we'll see. There's some inflation data and one other item that I can't remember right now coming out on Thurs that could move things. I will probably build my first leg next week IF it calms down.
My already long watch list just grew by 5 companies today, it's going to be difficult to choose which positions to build once I start to get back in.
Not stock specific, but I am liking oil going into the April timeframe. Nigeria will be a mess heading into their elections. Reports are filtering in that militias are being further armed by rival political groups. Looking to long one of the oil ETFs.
My already long watch list just grew by 5 companies today, it's going to be difficult to choose which positions to build once I start to get back in.
Not stock specific, but I am liking oil going into the April timeframe. Nigeria will be a mess heading into their elections. Reports are filtering in that militias are being further armed by rival political groups. Looking to long one of the oil ETFs.
It's days like these that I think.. Although cars are expensive, at least you have the satisfaction of enjoying them..
Case in point: When I was 18, I was 'smart' and put about 10K of hard-earned money into the stock market.. made probably about 3k trading up n' down different stocks, and then I put something like 5K into a particular online retailer at about ~2.00 / share (don't remember the name - overstock.com?) thinking I was smart (it went from 1 - > 2 in about 6 months so it can go some more, right?) WRONG - it tanked.. I sold when it was under $1.00 and I think it went in the low .10... there was a class action lawsuit after that..
All in all I think I ended up losing about 1 - 3 k. I thought to myself, damn, should have just bout that Jackson Racing Supercharger (Civic at the time..) for $1500.. At least you have the guarantee that you can use it..
Since then, I've stopped playing the stock market and bought houses instead.. those still seem to do fine...
Case in point: When I was 18, I was 'smart' and put about 10K of hard-earned money into the stock market.. made probably about 3k trading up n' down different stocks, and then I put something like 5K into a particular online retailer at about ~2.00 / share (don't remember the name - overstock.com?) thinking I was smart (it went from 1 - > 2 in about 6 months so it can go some more, right?) WRONG - it tanked.. I sold when it was under $1.00 and I think it went in the low .10... there was a class action lawsuit after that..
All in all I think I ended up losing about 1 - 3 k. I thought to myself, damn, should have just bout that Jackson Racing Supercharger (Civic at the time..) for $1500.. At least you have the guarantee that you can use it..
Since then, I've stopped playing the stock market and bought houses instead.. those still seem to do fine...
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It's days like these that I think.. Although cars are expensive, at least you have the satisfaction of enjoying them..
Case in point: When I was 18, I was 'smart' and put about 10K of hard-earned money into the stock market.. made probably about 3k trading up n' down different stocks, and then I put something like 5K into a particular online retailer at about ~2.00 / share (don't remember the name - overstock.com?) thinking I was smart (it went from 1 - > 2 in about 6 months so it can go some more, right?) WRONG - it tanked.. I sold when it was under $1.00 and I think it went in the low .10... there was a class action lawsuit after that..
All in all I think I ended up losing about 1 - 3 k. I thought to myself, damn, should have just bout that Jackson Racing Supercharger (Civic at the time..) for $1500.. At least you have the guarantee that you can use it..
Since then, I've stopped playing the stock market and bought houses instead.. those still seem to do fine...
Well, RE is "easier to invest in" and that is why people see it as a safer investment. Most people who claim to "trade stocks" do it on the side or as a "hobby." They are essentially lazy.... I spend the whole day, and some nights looking through charts, surfing nsxprime, doing research, etc.... By the end of the day I know exactly what's going on in the market, what went up, down, sideways, etc. Most people don't have a system. Buying on impulse, or on someones tip is LAZY. And therefore you will lose if you keep trading like that. That isn't investing, it's gambling, literally....... What they don't realize is that it's just as serious of a profession as say, being surgeon or a lawyer. Successful trading involves more than just knowing what the next economic report is going to say or reading IBD every morning, or watching Cramer and following his tips. It means that you have a system, a business plan that you follow. It means that you have the emotional control necessary to handle potentially large fluctuations in the market. It means that you have put time and thought into why you are buying/selling a stock. Panics, shakeouts, and corrections will scare and wipe out most amatuers. There is a reason for this!
It amazes me how quickly most people will dump their life savings into 1 stock just because they heard it will go up, yet do they do that when buying a car or a watch for instance?
Bottom line, if you lose $$$ it's your fault.
slownsxt, why did you hold the stock from $2 down to $1? Not picking on you, but just illustrating one of the most common and financially draining mistakes that "investors" typically make. If you had a mental stop of where you were going to get out, and stuck to it, you might still be trading today. Why tolerate a 50% loss? Once again, i'm not picking on you....... I've made every mistake in the book, and then done it again. Eventually you learn not to do it again.
As far as i'm concerned trading stocks is the same as buying/selling real estate. A house is one share of stock. The price of a home is dictated by it's market (buyers and sellers). If anything real estate is WAAAAAAAAY more risky than trading stocks. Think aboiut the leverage involved in real estate. You buy a home with 5% down, you are on 20X margin. People do this hoping that prices will go up, and they usually do. But look at the mess we're in now. Especially in SoCal....... There will be a lot of people who lose EVERYTHING they have because they bought into the bubble. Today's RE market in SoCal and other areas is no different that the dot com bubble in early 2000........ Washington is doing good however. Our family home in Mukilteo is skyrocketing, as are homes on the Eastside..... :biggrin:
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It was a terrible day for buying. Just because a stock, or the market, goes down, doesn't mean it won't go down more. It was a good day for just the opposite, shorting.
Been there done that. One thing I would define as a mistake is NOT SELLING open positions when the market is flashing as clear a signal as it did. Sitting on your hands and "hoping" the market doesn't break down is the wrong approach. Contrary to some assertions, Tuesday's selloff was no surprise. Anyone watching the market before the open should have seen the sell-off coming like a freight train. Selling at the open after a small overnight gap was the correct strategy. Sitting on the track and "hoping" you won't get hit is a bad strategy. The warning signals could not have been more clear unless the ticker had read "SELL YOUR STOCKS NOW". If I had had any open long positions I would have sold at the open. Lacking any long positions because the market just seemed so overbought, I was anticipating* a sell-off and the opportunity to do some shorting, and did so. (Specifically, I shorted EEM in premarket trading and closed the position before the end of the day, picking up a few points in a successful daytrade.)
On the flip side, my 401k did take a hit. It may be time to go to bonds in that.
In the short term, one expert trader I follow is advising to close all open positions and go to cash and see what develops. Here is his actual advice on Tuesday.
In a market break like today I sell everything I own no questions asked and I sell as near to the open as I can. This way I will have cash to spend when the market bottoms...I especially like to sell stocks that were down only fractionally at the open. Why wait till the end of the day when they too will be down $4 - $6. CASH IS KING! It is the hard edge of experience and the cold, rational conviction to do what needs to be done that has made this guy a millionaire many times over.
We might be back at new highs next week, but why risk it? Stepping aside seems prudent at this point. The uptrend is broken. At an absolute minimum sitting out the rest of the week without opening any new longer-term long positions would seem sensible. Just because today the market was up a little doesn't mean it wasn't a head fake, and the market won't take another jolt by Friday, which is typically a day for profit-taking. Take a neutral stance and attempt to ascertain the direction of the market. One of the hardest things to do is to wait and watch the market for days or even weeks at a time, and do nothing, but sometimes that is what is necessary to determine the line of least resistance.
*My definition of "anticipating". Not trying to predict, but rather waiting for something that is inevitable. I think attempting to "predict" a market top is impossible. Just when the market "can't" go any higher, it will, so no use in trying to pick a top. But I do know that the inevitable is, well, inevitable, so I try to be prepared for it and recognize it when it comes.
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Oh baby, I LOVE the action! Silly crowds can be so delusional. :biggrin:500 pointer out of nowhere! Pretty exciting! :biggrin:
This morning was intersting.........
I love the timing of the stock market dump.
Just sold my house for under $2mil and wired a large chunk of that to my finance gal (she's a cutey - too bad she's married) at Country Wide.
If all goes well, the NSX might be the daily beater for home depot runs and Something from Europe with a mid-engine and more than 8 cyclinders might be sitting in the garage.............
Just sold my house for under $2mil and wired a large chunk of that to my finance gal (she's a cutey - too bad she's married) at Country Wide.
If all goes well, the NSX might be the daily beater for home depot runs and Something from Europe with a mid-engine and more than 8 cyclinders might be sitting in the garage.............
I don't care what the market does as long as it moves
Ski_Banker
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1996 "Irrational Exuberance" - Alan Greenspan
There is a very real concern over sub-prime lending, and the next step up, the Alt A market. But those concerns are no different now than they were 18 months ago. And those borrowers, who are now hurting, will continue to borrow (credit cards) and are a negligible contributor to GDP anyway. As for the negative wealth effect from home depreciation -- no where near the direct link to consumption as stock market investments were to the middle class in the late 90s. Was there a major recession after the stock market bust? Nope. It will take a major event, or series of events, to derail to global economy.
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Yes it was a good day for buying!
It was a terrible day for buying. Just because a stock, or the market, goes down, doesn't mean it won't go down more. It was a good day for just the opposite, shorting.
Well Jett.....I did not say what I was buying or what positions I was holding.....irregardless, I bought, sold and made money..opportunity is there, you have to be diligent no matter what the market is....
Yes it was a good day for buying!
It was a terrible day for buying. Just because a stock, or the market, goes down, doesn't mean it won't go down more. It was a good day for just the opposite, shorting.
Well Jett.....I did not say what I was buying or what positions I was holding.....irregardless, I bought, sold and made money..opportunity is there, you have to be diligent no matter what the market is....
Ski_Banker
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Hope ya covered your shorts and sold those puts Steve! Dow 13,000 and still a terrific bargain compared to everything else. I'd be very wary of emerging market stocks now though. Same with developed International, but to a lesser extent -- U.S. participates in more global trade than any other developed economy and therefore should be a greater beneficiary of globalization efficiencies than, say, Europe. :smile:
It's all good. I disposed of the puts when they were ITM. Still under cost on the shorts but getting ready to cover.
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What's interesting is look at USO. Oil is back up to $65/brl, about what it was at when this pseudo-ETF went public a year ago. Went public at $70, now trading at $50. That decline is 1% due to lost management fees and 99% due to wealth lost in rolling over managed futures. Oil overall is UNCH for the period. Talk about a dumb investment.
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