nkb said:
Answer this to yourself, if things really were going badly in Iraq, do you think an incumbent government would let you know on the eve of elections (and this has nothing to do with Republicans or Democrats, it is just a fact of life that politicians will spin anything to their advantage)?)
Of course I would expect the Bush administration to paint the rosiest picture possible. Let's just say I find their "spin" more credible than the Kerry "spin". And I am not basing my views on Iraq solely on Republican talking points. If you had asked me before the invasion began to predict what the situation would be a year and a half later, I would have described a scenario similar to the one we see today. I certainly would have predicted many more coalition casualties. Democratization of Iraq has never been a matter of one or two years and we're out clean. It is a long, gradual process and you have to be far-sighted about it. Pretty much everyone understood this going in, including most of the Democrats who are now doing all the finger pointing.
nkb said:
I understand that a significant part of the insurgency is not even Iraqis, but that is something that even a two-bit analyst should have been able to predict, and should have been planned for. Was the Iraq war well-prepared? I don't think so. Was it ill-timed, with significant forces needed to finish the job in Afghanistan? I think so.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree. How exactly were we poorly prepared? I have yet to hear specific examples from any of the critics. As I always say, one of the easiest things in the world to do is to find fault with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Many things that may seem obvious now were not so obvious before the fact. And intelligence agency failures notwithstanding, the analysts who generated the intelligence reports upon which Bush's decisions were made are collectively a far cry from "two-bit".
And on what basis do you conclude that the job in Afghanistan was not finished? I'm sure you must realize that an interim Afghan government has been recognized and functioning for some time now, and that the first-ever Afghan free elections were just held last week? The Taliban has been thoroughly dismantled, and terrorist attacks there are sporadic. Sounds pretty good to me so far.
nkb said:
Do I think Kerry will do better? I'm not sure he can, given the current situation, and some of his plans seem pretty optimistic. Will he do worse? Probably not.
Plans? What plans? Kerry has yet to articulate anything specific and meaningful that he would have done differently in Iraq or that he would do in the future. He says that he would have used force in Iraq "in the right way", which is like saying nothing at all. He says that he would have given diplomacy a chance to work - as if 12 years of futile diplomacy are not enough. He says that he would double the number of US troops - the type of decision that should be made by military commanders not politicians (see Vietnam). He says that he would bring in French, German and Russian troops to help - not a chance, and even if he could only the Russian troops might prove helpful. He says that he would train Iraqi troops - no different than what is being done now. Add to this that few in Washington have less credibility or a weaker voting record on defense matters than Senator Kerry, and I don't believe for a minute that he would or even could do a better job in Iraq than Bush.[/QUOTE]
nkb said:
To answer your question, common sense tells me that we bit off more than we could chew. Invading Iraq so quickly after Afghanistan was not prudent. Again, analysts should have been able to predict the difficulty of being an occupying force in a hostile area, and backed off. It is my opinion that we are in Iraq because Bush/Cheney had targeted Hussein a long time ago, and not because of any imminent danger (as was proven, in hindsight).
For 12 years Hussein refused to allow unfettered access to UN weapons inspectors. He refused to permit independent verification of the destruction/dismantling of weapons and weapons facilities that we knew he had. That left us to either assume that he still posed an imminent threat (smart) or assume that he no longer posed an imminent threat (not smart).
In my opinion the situation in Iraq does not indicate that we bit off more than we can chew. Far from it. We destroyed an entrenched regime in record time, and it was long overdue. What we see happening now is nothing more than the desperation and panic of Islamic fundamentalist extremists throughout the Middle East - crude, sporadic attacks and bombings that the terrorists can only hope will intimidate and discourage the Iraqi population. A free Iraq is evidently a nightmare scenario for them, which indicates to me that it is definitely worth the effort.