UAL

[O-Ace]

Anyone else think it might be a good time to pick up some United stock? I believe it's at $0.92 right now.

-Awais

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2001 QuickSilver Corvette Coupe - Not Stock [503 RWHP, 545 RWTQ]

2002 Black Acura 3.2 TL/S

www.RacingFlix.com

 

[steveny]

No way. I would stay clear of this stock. UAL is not even worth the .92 cents it sells for now. The fed is not stepping in to loan $ as of Friday, if another airline scoops them up the shares will be worthless in the end. Just my opinion I may be wrong.

I just looked up options for next month. For 100 buck plus commisions you can control 1000 shares, strike 2.50, for Jan. If I were going to mess with this one this is how I would do it. Almost 36k cotracts traded so far.

Heres the link http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UAL&d=o&q=B

[This message has been edited by steveny (edited 08 December 2002).]

 

[milz50]

I have a very contrarian investing philosophy, but it would be hard for me to justify buying UAL now.

Although the company is only valued at 60 million, they have nearly a billion dollar loan they need to make good on shortly. This isn't the fact that dissuades me from an investment. The troubling part is that no one will loan them money because their financial plan is unsound.

Now it is possible that the company could go bankrupt and merge (a la Eastern, Pan Am, TWA) or even turn things around. It just isn't very likely.

An investment in UAL will probably end up being a large loss (percentage), although there is the chance (albeit remote) to make 3 - 10 times your investment. At this point, purchasing UAL stock is similar to buying options (from a risk/return potential).

I'm not trying to discourage you, because I realize that there is the potential to make a handsome ROI. This just isn't the type of investment I'm looking for now.

What do you see that makes this stock attractive to you?

Matt

 

[steveny]

Originally posted by milz50:


An investment in UAL will probably end up being a large loss (percentage), although there is the chance (albeit remote) to make 3 - 10 times your investment. At this point, purchasing UAL stock is similar to buying options (from a risk/return potential).

My point exactly, so if one decides to play UAL it might as well be the options. Minimize the loss and maximize the gain potential.

 

[Auraraptor]

Just wondering, what do all of you think of Lucent? it just recently crossed back over a $1. Is it something or nothing?

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Resident E38er

-97 NSX "Nina"

 

[steveny]

Originally posted by Auraraptor:
Just wondering, what do all of you think of Lucent? it just recently crossed back over a $1. Is it something or nothing?

In my opinion LU is a company created much like I would create a company with your money. GLW is a much better risk in my opinion. GLW has core product to fall back on, LU does not. AT&T and LU have been split so that the investor takes all the risk with LU.
With GLW if their fiber optics division does not work out they can still sell dishes. With LU if they fail there is nothing left, except the AT&T side of the business that was never risked in the first place. A beautiful plan on the part of AT&T management I must say. Their retirement is still safe.

 

[PHOEN$X]

Originally posted by O-Ace:
Anyone else think it might be a good time to pick up some United stock? I believe it's at $0.92 right now.

If you're brave, buy some

Otherwise, it might be a good time to sell short

Moot point anyway, I think they're going to get delisted soon, if the trading hasn't been halted already...

 

[Tony Montoya]

The way I understand it is the current shareholders will get nothing and the bond holders will have to swap their bonds for new shares, possibly in a merger.
The only way the shares right now can possibly be worth anything is if the Federal government reverses the bailout decision. It could happen.

 

[(NSX REY)]

Think of how I feel, I work UAL. Not a good feeling... I lost about 80k of ESOP stock. My NSX is now on hold.

 

[O-Ace]

Thanks for the feedback. I've decided not to purchase any UAL stock, because so far from all the news and info I've received, it isn't looking good for United.

If United doesn't get any funding/loan, then I think shorting this stock would also be a loss. It's already at .92. November was a good time to short UAL.

On a side note, I think Lud should add a new section to discuss the market

[This message has been edited by O-Ace (edited 09 December 2002).]

 

[NSXaholic]

Originally posted by O-Ace:
Anyone else think it might be a good time to pick up some United stock? I believe it's at $0.92 right now.

-Awais

Still interested Awais?

HEADLINE:
United Files for Bankruptcy:
http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20021209-000269-0747

Originally posted by NSX2B:
Think of how I feel, I work UAL. Not a good feeling... I lost about 80k of ESOP stock. My NSX is now on hold.

NSX2B, I am very sorry to see that this has happened. Living in Chicago, I am very familiar with the UAL story. I, for one, believe in you guys, and will continue to fly you (just keep my FF miles intact please!!) I hope the restructuring happens quickly and with minimal damage, although the sad reality is that this will undoubtedly play havoc with your ESOP plans, as the above article mentions.

Regards.

 

[nicholas421]

i have a ton of mileage plus miles with united that i accrued over the years. i never got around to using them after i moved from chicago.
should i "cash in" on these miles asap? have airline mergers or buy outs in the past honored old frequent flyer miles?

 

[NSXaholic]

Originally posted by nicholas421:
have airline mergers or buy outs in the past honored old frequent flyer miles?

I don't know about historically, but United will, at least for a while. This is what the article says:

Frequent-flier miles and basic fare levels are likely to be retained for the short term, although fare hikes are likely over the longer haul.

Originally posted by nicholas421:
Should i "cash in" on these miles asap?

Yes. Just like I need to. Although they honor them now, don't know how long they will continue to honor them.

Regards.

 

[steveny]

Originally posted by O-Ace:


On a side note, I think Lud should add a new section to discuss the market

[This message has been edited by O-Ace (edited 09 December 2002).]

Excellent idea! I am a frequent trader and make the bulk of my income from doing so. I would be thrilled to be able to chat with anyone here. I have not been able to find any place on the net, with intelligent people, to converse with about the market. O-ace if you would like we could e mail back and forth or I will set up a instant messenger or something. Let me know what you think.

 

[(NSX REY)]

NSXaholic,

Thanks for the positive support. The Dow Jones newswire echoes that of everyone on Wall Street. After giving up wage concessions for seven and a half years, to save United and now losing 80k is a painstaking reality we will have to live with I guess… As for all of you that have Frequent Flyer Miles or other special flight packages, we were told they would continue to honor them. However, they may make adjustments because of some change in servicing flights/routes. Here is a generic version of the letter being sent out to Mileage Plus Members from the CEO. I hope this helps explain some things for you.
Email/Letter to U.S Mileage Plus Members
Dear Jane Doe,
I want to share some important news with you about the steps we are taking to change the way we do business and better serve your needs.
In the past several months, we told you about the efforts we have been making to bring our costs in line with revenues that have fallen dramatically as the airline industry has changed. United Airlines has filed to reorganize under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code in order to make the fundamental changes necessary to remain one of the world’s premier airlines. While United undergoes reorganization, please know that our commitment to providing you with safe and reliable service remains unchanged.
During this process, United will continue to operate around the world. We will honor tickets and will maintain our refund and exchange policies. We remain ready to meet your travel needs and you can continue to count on the level of service you have come to expect from United.
As a member of Mileage Plus you can continue to accrue miles on United and Star Alliance carriers and with Mileage Plus partners as usual. Miles previously earned in the program remain in your account, and award travel remains available as always. Other products and services, such as Red Carpet Clubs, EasyUpdate and EasyCheck-in remain available to meet your travel needs.

The decision to take this course of action was not an easy one. But it will ultimately enable United to remain competitive and better serve you for the long-term. We will continue to keep you informed of significant news at United. I also invite you to visit our web site at www.united.com for the latest news and information.
On behalf of all United employees worldwide, we appreciate your continued support and loyalty.
Sincerely,

Glenn F. Tilton
Chairman, President and CEO
If you would like to receive a copy of the notice of commencement of United's Chapter 11 cases, which, among other things, provides information about meetings of creditors, deadlines for filing proofs of claim, and case management and notice procedures, you may do so by visiting www.pd-ual.com or by contacting the Poorman-Douglas Corporation at 1-877-752-5527 or 503-277-7999.

 

[NSXaholic]

Originally posted by NSX2B:
After giving up wage concessions for seven and a half years, to save United and now losing 80k is a painstaking reality we will have to live with I guess

This is truly sad. Different conditions than the Enron's and Worldcom's of the world, where there the CEO's played havoc with the company's and drove them to the ground, but to see your nest egg get affected regardless of the extenuating circumstances is never an easy task. As you rightly note, this is already on top of wage and other concessions.

I wish you well NSX2B, and will pray for a speedy outcome. Don't worry...I know your NSX is around the corner. Keep the faith!!

Regards.

 

[O-Ace]

UAL hit $1.13 today, and is at $1.08 right now. What's the deal with this? Any insight?

 

[steveny]

Originally posted by O-Ace:
UAL hit $1.13 today, and is at $1.08 right now. What's the deal with this? Any insight?

Fruit of the loom did the same thing when they went belly up. When the dust settled all the share holders were empty handed.

 

[Ryanmcd2]

If you want to play the market please do some research and don’t trade with emotion, Use TA or read balance sheets. I just do not like to see people lost money trading stocks out of emotion, the only reason I know this is because I used to do the same thing. Now that I day trade the spoos “S+P500” futures for a living you can not trade like that. Even if it is a long term deal don’t throw your money away. Greed and fear run the market. If you are looking to learn more about Technical analysis read some Bill Williams or pick up John Murphy’s stuff. Good luck…

 

[Number9]

RE: UA, Dead cat bounce? Sadly, a lot of folks don't understand diversification. Dump the employee stock purchase plan stock the minute you have access to it. Typical plan has at least 85% of market pricing, so you net an annualized gain of about 35%. Have company stock in your 401k? Insane. If your company matches, take it and swap out.

Here's a common Silicon Valley scenario - have company options, company ESPP, company stock in 401K, and of course, work for company. Hit recession, regardless of Enron fraud type issues, then options are under water, ESPP tanks, 401K tanks, and you get laid off... Major problem due to risk concentration (in your company).

Lesson - diversify. Dump the ESPP stock right away and lock in the gains. Don't hold company stock in your retirement fund. Get laid off? Only job and stock options affected. Did I mention, diversify?