Ski_Banker
Suspended
Ok, so, thoughts?
Where is the U.S. now, and where is it going (economics... not politics, etc.)?
Where is the U.S. now, and where is it going (economics... not politics, etc.)?
The Official U.S.A. In Decline Thread
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
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6 months is a little too short, 4 years is a little too long, at least for the current issues at hand. The housing market cannot bottom until later this year, it's difficult to tell how it'll recover from there if that's the case. I think the economy in general will slowly start churning around that time as construction, general confidence, etc. picks up.
I hope the market runs right back to 14k again, but hope is not a strategy.
I hope the market runs right back to 14k again, but hope is not a strategy.
I am an optimist, so I voted that we will weather the storm...but I am no financial genius either. I think since the dollar is weak, we will continue to attract foreign investors. Our import/export trade imbalance may improve also.
I'd rather see more of our goods going overseas and less stuff from China coming in.
I'd rather see more of our goods going overseas and less stuff from China coming in.
I think things are a lot worse than people realize. I could be 100% wrong, but it seems like the entire world is going to be impacted by this.
And I think the sub-primes are just a part of it. Even people with great credit who bought at the top are in an equal amount of problem as their $500,000 house drops 20% in value. Better hope they don't get divorced, lose their job or have to relocate. If they do, bankruptcy may be the only option.
And next you have people who have good credit, who didn't buy at the top, but who rolled TONS of things into their mortgage(cars, credit card debt, etc). Now house values are going down and they're in the same spot as above. There was a time where I was getting 3-4 offers a WEEK to take out a home equity loan AT A VARIABLE RATE.
And none of that has to do with sub-primes. Add into the mix that the sub-primes were sold to insurance companies, pension plans, other countries bought them etc, and how many people are simply walking away from their loans, and the plot thickens.
Then add in to the mix how much debt the country was already in, how we're taking out more loans to give everyone $600.
Then add in how the value of the dollar is worth about 1/2 what it was 8 years ago.
Add all that together and I think we have a problem. As soon as people start realizing it, things could start to spiral.
And I think the sub-primes are just a part of it. Even people with great credit who bought at the top are in an equal amount of problem as their $500,000 house drops 20% in value. Better hope they don't get divorced, lose their job or have to relocate. If they do, bankruptcy may be the only option.
And next you have people who have good credit, who didn't buy at the top, but who rolled TONS of things into their mortgage(cars, credit card debt, etc). Now house values are going down and they're in the same spot as above. There was a time where I was getting 3-4 offers a WEEK to take out a home equity loan AT A VARIABLE RATE.
And none of that has to do with sub-primes. Add into the mix that the sub-primes were sold to insurance companies, pension plans, other countries bought them etc, and how many people are simply walking away from their loans, and the plot thickens.
Then add in to the mix how much debt the country was already in, how we're taking out more loans to give everyone $600.
Then add in how the value of the dollar is worth about 1/2 what it was 8 years ago.
Add all that together and I think we have a problem. As soon as people start realizing it, things could start to spiral.
Let's stay positive:smile:
I do noticed a drop in my retail business, but not catastrophic. I think the correction in the housing market will stabilize once the interest rate is stabilized. Of course they will have to loosen the qualification slightly so property can exchange hands again.
The mortgage industry will just have to figure out how not to "fuck" them self by setting up new rules that doesn't make any sense. ie. ARM is kicking in while the value is dropping in most parts of the country, therefore, they refuse to help people to refi because the property is worth less than the what's owe... but the rate IS going up regardless even though most owners want to hold on to the house, but can't afford the higher payment, AND can't get the property refinance, therefore, forced into foreclosure.
Doesn't quite make any sense, does it?
In my opinion, that's the first thing they have to fix!!!
As for the possibility of recession, we really shouldn't speculate until we have a negative GDP quarter. Don't forget, to qualify as recession, you will need to have two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
There will be some thing new to help the economy. Let's invade Iran!!!:biggrin:
I do noticed a drop in my retail business, but not catastrophic. I think the correction in the housing market will stabilize once the interest rate is stabilized. Of course they will have to loosen the qualification slightly so property can exchange hands again.
The mortgage industry will just have to figure out how not to "fuck" them self by setting up new rules that doesn't make any sense. ie. ARM is kicking in while the value is dropping in most parts of the country, therefore, they refuse to help people to refi because the property is worth less than the what's owe... but the rate IS going up regardless even though most owners want to hold on to the house, but can't afford the higher payment, AND can't get the property refinance, therefore, forced into foreclosure.
Doesn't quite make any sense, does it?
In my opinion, that's the first thing they have to fix!!!
As for the possibility of recession, we really shouldn't speculate until we have a negative GDP quarter. Don't forget, to qualify as recession, you will need to have two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
There will be some thing new to help the economy. Let's invade Iran!!!:biggrin:
Well Bernanke is no Greenspan and that has me concerned. He's always playing catch up instead of being ahead of the trends. Besides recession is a natural cycle.
Home prices went up unnaturally and I really think that fine print wasn't the only thing these finance companies were being crooked about. I really wonder if appraisers were intentionally appraising to high. Saying a market is "hot" in certain areas. I mean come on real estate going up 200%
Nobody ever seemed to think that was wrong until it was too late.
Not being political when I say this , but in my lifetime twice during republican rule we've had war and then recession. People say war is good for the economy , but that seemed to only happen during WWII.
Honestly guys we'll get a Dem in for the next 8 years balance the mess and people will get rich again and then vote Rep because things are good. Then get broke and the cycle will repeat itself.
The few that made money that last seven years will get richer in the next 7. Just a cycle
Home prices went up unnaturally and I really think that fine print wasn't the only thing these finance companies were being crooked about. I really wonder if appraisers were intentionally appraising to high. Saying a market is "hot" in certain areas. I mean come on real estate going up 200%
Nobody ever seemed to think that was wrong until it was too late.Not being political when I say this , but in my lifetime twice during republican rule we've had war and then recession. People say war is good for the economy , but that seemed to only happen during WWII.
Honestly guys we'll get a Dem in for the next 8 years balance the mess and people will get rich again and then vote Rep because things are good. Then get broke and the cycle will repeat itself.
The few that made money that last seven years will get richer in the next 7. Just a cycle
Dude, Greenspan bailed right before the mortgage meltdown, and he knew it was going to happen. He kept the low interest rate way too long and created the real estate party. The effect is much greater in cities from California, Navada, Arizona, NY etc. Most of the midwest states are not affected as much because the value did not increase as much.
Dude, I'm hurting right now... With ARM kicked in, mortgage payment, property tax, and HOA, I'm paying over 3 grand a month for a one bedroom condo... and it is in the second tier neighborhood of Huntington Beach... First Franklin mortgage needs to do some thing soon for me, like locking my rate!!!
Dude, I'm hurting right now... With ARM kicked in, mortgage payment, property tax, and HOA, I'm paying over 3 grand a month for a one bedroom condo... and it is in the second tier neighborhood of Huntington Beach... First Franklin mortgage needs to do some thing soon for me, like locking my rate!!!
Come on man ... LOL Greenspan was not asked to stay by Bush as he had his own man in mind. Bush likes to set up his own people like most Presidents do. Don't know who told you Greenspan bailed ,but that's not true.
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Some Midwest states have been hit the hardest. Foreclosures in Michigan and Ohio are among the highest.
I hope you're joking that you want First Franklin to throw you a bone.
If I'm not mistaken, you just had a post about buying a new car.
Don’t forget, Ski, that you see things differently than people in the States, because you are not in the States at the moment (I presume, still in England?).
Even speaking as the complete amateur that I am, it’s been quite a long while now (like years) that it was clear to many ordinary folks here that they should get out of US dollars, but from what I can see, it was not clear to folks inside the States.
Or maybe people in the States couldn’t get out of dollars because it was just illegal, and actually “seeing” the situation was restricted too. I guess.
Even CNN is different inside the States, as you know.
The housing bubble doesn’t exist here (except Britain, Ireland and Spain). The banks have a lot more income checks here so sub-primes are not here.
On the other hand, the GB is a big economic part of the EC. So if it goes into decline, after a sub-prime/banking default, it will certainly affect the rest of us.
Will we crash too?
Not because of root problems here. Just to give you an example, almost nobody in the EC has a credit card. (MC and VISA sure, but its not actually a credit card, the balance gets taken of your bank account and gets completely paid off every month. EVERY MONTH.)
But I think if the US goes further down, for sure we will have big slowdown here. But not a melt down.
Again on the other hand, the banks have been lending more than usual if seems, that is just creating money (printing money), and so the money is not worth as much as before, there is a strange kind of inflation happening. Different that the government's official low number, lying bastards.
So people seem to getting poorer and poorer. And that softens the banks’ landing at the expense of the people (at the benefit of the banks).
So I say a crash will happen (in the States) but it will be different than last time (always is). Short, sharp, heavy. Then a quicker recovery than last time (1929). And it will seriously affect us.
Plus I just am finishing building my house, now the paying back of my big loan has to happen.
Murphy says it will be just about now that the place goes to hell. Typical my luck. :frown: A crash? Well, probably will happen, as you say. Dang. So I vote for a crash because of Murphy.
(no wonder I’m poor)
Do you agree with this? I’m curious to hear because you guys over on the other thread are real interesting and informative and you have a lot more knowledge about how it works than me.
Even speaking as the complete amateur that I am, it’s been quite a long while now (like years) that it was clear to many ordinary folks here that they should get out of US dollars, but from what I can see, it was not clear to folks inside the States.
Or maybe people in the States couldn’t get out of dollars because it was just illegal, and actually “seeing” the situation was restricted too. I guess.
Even CNN is different inside the States, as you know.
The housing bubble doesn’t exist here (except Britain, Ireland and Spain). The banks have a lot more income checks here so sub-primes are not here.
On the other hand, the GB is a big economic part of the EC. So if it goes into decline, after a sub-prime/banking default, it will certainly affect the rest of us.
Will we crash too?
Not because of root problems here. Just to give you an example, almost nobody in the EC has a credit card. (MC and VISA sure, but its not actually a credit card, the balance gets taken of your bank account and gets completely paid off every month. EVERY MONTH.)
But I think if the US goes further down, for sure we will have big slowdown here. But not a melt down.
Again on the other hand, the banks have been lending more than usual if seems, that is just creating money (printing money), and so the money is not worth as much as before, there is a strange kind of inflation happening. Different that the government's official low number, lying bastards.
So people seem to getting poorer and poorer. And that softens the banks’ landing at the expense of the people (at the benefit of the banks).
So I say a crash will happen (in the States) but it will be different than last time (always is). Short, sharp, heavy. Then a quicker recovery than last time (1929). And it will seriously affect us.
Plus I just am finishing building my house, now the paying back of my big loan has to happen.
Murphy says it will be just about now that the place goes to hell. Typical my luck. :frown: A crash? Well, probably will happen, as you say. Dang. So I vote for a crash because of Murphy.
(no wonder I’m poor)
Do you agree with this? I’m curious to hear because you guys over on the other thread are real interesting and informative and you have a lot more knowledge about how it works than me.
I was thinking that last part myself. Of course the only thing Vance isn't joking about is invading Iran .. LOL
Also as someone who lives in Michigan yes it's pretty bad here as the state has been in recession for sometime. Not sure what will snap us out with the rest of the country slowing down it just pushes us down further.
Let's all move to Canada! Oh Canada~! :biggrin:
Ski_Banker
Suspended
Yep, still in London. Much of the same problems are impacting the UK and Ireland, but are just a year behind the U.S. May not be quite as bad here though. Edit: Not so sure about that, actually. England may very well be worse off and Ireland definitely is. Their housing bubbles have been even a bit greater than those in the U.S.
The frightening events I see are what is going on in the financial system. The next 2 months will be very eventful. Double check that you don't have single bank account balances above $100k, and I definitely would consider *not banking* with the local friendly bank next door (over BofA, Citi, Chase, etc.)
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Glad I'm Canadian! I'm currently looking to purchase a couple of properties in the southwestern at "blow-out" prices compared to what I pay for real estate in Calgary. I've purchased two new rides in the past 12 months also with the decline of the US greenback and couldn't be happier.
Booya!
+1
I agree, I think we are looking at about 1-3 years or so. I also believe, that the economy isn't just going to bounce right back and take off to the moon. I think of that's just when the bleeding stops. People want their homes to post double digit increases again, but that's just not realistic. What we see isn't so much as a recession, but more of a market re-alignment. Real Estate was just so bloated and over priced. It was artificially inflated. The market is just going to reset to more reasonable and realistic values. Homes will drop back to pre-inflation levels and life will go on like it did before. In the meantime, everything else in the economy will struggle as everything gets rebalanced. The same thing happened with the internet tech stock boom. Over inflated stocks had people going hog wild raising unrealistic expectations. When that bubble burst, stocks got reset to their "real" values and life went back to normal.
Just my thoughts/hopes at least...
For the first time in history it's good to be Canadian. :tongue: I'm kidding.
I have lots of family in BC and they are also very happy with the exchange rate.
LOL Here's hoping we don't go down near the peso:biggrin:
I am not a fortune teller or goodwill oracle. There are signs and there are symptons. It will not effect the rich as they are rich and could afford to move with their wealth. For the midclass..... if there is such a class.lol
1. Analyst forcast Housing market is going downhill for 2 more years
2. History teached us worst crime against usa was ..war of 1814 when British burned DC. http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/washingtonsack.htm
3. decadence: A process, condition, or period of deterioration or decline, as in morals or art; decay. French décadence, from Old French decadence, from Medieval Latin dēcadentia, a decaying, declining, from Vulgar Latin *dēcadere, to decay. See decay.]
The good news is you will not take it to the grave you are only accountable for your own deeds.
1. Analyst forcast Housing market is going downhill for 2 more years
2. History teached us worst crime against usa was ..war of 1814 when British burned DC. http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/washingtonsack.htm
3. decadence: A process, condition, or period of deterioration or decline, as in morals or art; decay. French décadence, from Old French decadence, from Medieval Latin dēcadentia, a decaying, declining, from Vulgar Latin *dēcadere, to decay. See decay.]
The good news is you will not take it to the grave you are only accountable for your own deeds.
I'm hurting does not means I'm loosing it, there is a difference. When First Franklin is seeking 10.75% on your first ARM, you will feel it too!!! My mortgage broker friend is negotiating with First Franklin right now, if it goes through, I'll be saving about $600 per month.
Michigan... Sorry, people probably should abandon that state since the late 80's!!! Southern California is not exactly a ghost town, in fact, it has one of the most thriving economy in the world!!!
Gold is at $1000 an ounce
GDP is almost 0
Housing market crashing
Fed continues to print money out of the air and spend more then ever.
Ammo prices have risen 250% in the last year
Inflation, fuel, is rising
Dollar is fallen to lowest international levels ever
on and on and on...
Uhm...yea, bad times are SERIOUSLY coming. Just think Katrina in every major city.
Read the book "Patriots, Surviving the coming colapse" if you want to really understand how deep this rabbit hole goes.
Start buying guns and ammo.
GDP is almost 0
Housing market crashing
Fed continues to print money out of the air and spend more then ever.
Ammo prices have risen 250% in the last year
Inflation, fuel, is rising
Dollar is fallen to lowest international levels ever
on and on and on...
Uhm...yea, bad times are SERIOUSLY coming. Just think Katrina in every major city.
Read the book "Patriots, Surviving the coming colapse" if you want to really understand how deep this rabbit hole goes.
Start buying guns and ammo.
Ski_Banker
Suspended
Vance, I think Silverstone05 has a great point. Why should your mortgage lender lose money (by lowering your rate, or fixing your ARM when it shouldn't be) just so you can buy a 2008 $38k car?
Not trying to begrudge you, it's just that this line of thinking is PRECISELY why the U.S. is going down the tubes.
Ouch that hurt like a muthaf*cka!
LOL Dude what are trying to say? Of course people in the upper parts of Michigan having been praying for something like this to happen.
Dammit it's for a good cause Ski so get off his back! Sometimes a man needs another sweet sports car in his garage!:wink:
WingZ, got to disagree with you...
Greenspan played a huge huge part in all this...and it's not just real estate. When you start looking at the last 100 years, and the role the federal reserve has played in the distrution of our country its pretty incredible.
Yup, and people will feel pretty stupid when it turns out they were right. Again, all you have to do is look at katrina for a perfect example of the system failing.
Wont take more then a few days after the grocery stores shut down.....
