So just what price will an NSX be in 5 years?

[MLCNsx]

MLCNx, Are Aussies going overseas to pick up NSX's? Does the age make it possible to register a Left Hand Drive car out there?

RickySixx6, unfortunately you cannot register an imported vehicle in most circumstances in Australia, unless it is a personal import and there are very strict rules around that!!! If you owned an NSX and came to Australia to live you would be able to register it here providing you had owned in for 12-months prior to moving here.

I should add on a separate issue, the media has said that 7-new 2016 model NSX's have been sold in Australia at $420,000!!!

 

[tof]

Well, those things have continued to appreciate nicely since I sold mine almost a year ago. I hope my fully functional 79 Accord LX 5-speed hatch appreciates like that...but I won't hold my breath.

Scarcity of replacement parts from OEM and other sources could start to be an issue, at least over the short term. Old MBs, Porsches, BMWs, Ferraris...there are marquis specialists, restoration specialists, and manufacturer support arms that can keep old cars fresh. You can practically build an entire new 50s era MG or Triumph or a 60s vintage muscle car with replacement parts ordered on line or by catalog. But support for old NSXs is pretty casual. And 91s are now 27 year old cars. Now, many performance parts are readily available from SOS and other fine suppliers. But original NOS or near-OEM parts...that's another matter at this point.

 

[zanardi43]

Hoping my 43 zanardi will be worth something someday

 

[Vanishing Point]

Some softening has occurred for the last two years regarding "collector" cars. Most of this correction has been on the top end of the market and is not reflected on Japanese limited production vehicles so far.

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-vi...&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=PCS News

 

[SW2 Heritage Cars]

Some softening has occurred for the last two years regarding "collector" cars. Most of this correction has been on the top end of the market and is not reflected on Japanese limited production vehicles so far.

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-vi...&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=PCS News

I think it's actually more towards the middle of the market that has sunk, the six figure range. Truly top dollar cars (in the millions) are doing fine for the most part, as they're generally quite rare. The stuff that's coming back down are the Porsches and other European cars that went crazy despite high production numbers, none of that speculation-style buying really made any logical sense.

The Japanese stuff, NSX especially, isn't hugely affected because I think it already represented an amazing value. However, those with an NSX on the market right now will definitely notice a lack of interest from buyers, as the market as a whole is super slow regardless of what you're selling.

That being said, the NSX that sold at Auctions America over the weekend might be more than an anomaly, we'll have to wait and see...

 

[NSX7]

Has anyone considered future emission mandates? electric cars?

I was thinking about that yesterday - could this potentially kill all cars that run on gas?

ouch - there goes my car investment - is this a possible future statement?

 

[blue_myriddn]

Has anyone considered future emission mandates? electric cars?
I was thinking about that yesterday - could this potentially kill all cars that run on gas?
ouch - there goes my car investment - is this a possible future statement?

1. yes/yes
2. no
3. no.

What I do foresee happening and as soon as within the next 20 years are highway restrictions on "classic" cars: essentially stricter versions of the current antique car registration and mandatory rather than voluntary. While this may not seep in to rural areas, I strongly suspect it will be inevitable in urban areas. It won't be emissions driven though, it will be automated driving driven. If you car lacks the hardware/software to plug in to the self-driving network they simply won't all the vehicle on high traffic roads. Will probably start with SDV lanes (Self Driving Lanes) and then progress to full on SDV highway networks in to the major urban areas. Self Driving Vehicles and User Driven Vehicles simply aren't compatible with one another on the road and the benefits of SDVs for commuting are very powerful and convincing.

All well and good, but likely to do very little for car collecting. Once cars reach 6 figures they aren't used on a "daily" basis in crowded areas for the most part anyways.

 

[PostmanX]

http://m.ebay.com/itm/Porsche-911-930-TURBO-/371725216372?nav=SEARCH

Oh look....ANOTHER auction with shill bidding lol. Classic Private auction to hide the identities of his shill bidder ;-)

$5,000 then immediate shill bid up to $55,000 then even up bids every couple days.....classic shill MO. When will EBay ever start cracking down on shill bidding? It's the same crock of shit dealers doing the same garbage every auction.

 

[blue_myriddn]

I updated the numbers in June and moved the whole process to excel, but I never did get around to posting it, so now seems like a good time! The market has cooled a bit, so some of these values from Hagerty strike me as a little high, but I will be consistent and rely on the Hagerty numbers for this experiment. Personally, I think that the 2016 numbers in general are a bit more accurate for values right now than the 2017 numbers, but I tend to be a bit conservative.

Moving to excel also allows me to make a pretty graph

[TABLE="width: 431"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"]Condition[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MY 1991[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2015[/TD]
[TD] $ 60,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 42,400[/TD]
[TD] $ 33,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 24,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2016[/TD]
[TD] $ 77,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 49,900[/TD]
[TD] $ 37,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 28,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2017[/TD]
[TD] $ 98,700[/TD]
[TD] $ 62,300[/TD]
[TD] $ 44,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 32,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2020[/TD]
[TD] $ 85,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 65,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 40,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 30,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2025[/TD]
[TD] $ 115,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 95,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 50,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 40,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"]Condition[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MY 1995[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2015[/TD]
[TD] $ 66,800[/TD]
[TD] $ 50,800[/TD]
[TD] $ 44,500[/TD]
[TD] $ 33,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2016[/TD]
[TD] $ 71,400[/TD]
[TD] $ 54,400[/TD]
[TD] $ 46,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 36,600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2017[/TD]
[TD] $ 91,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 67,900[/TD]
[TD] $ 54,700[/TD]
[TD] $ 41,100[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2020[/TD]
[TD] $ 68,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 62,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 46,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 42,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2025[/TD]
[TD] $ 85,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 68,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 50,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 40,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"]Condition[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MY 2001[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2015[/TD]
[TD] $ 74,800[/TD]
[TD] $ 63,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 53,900[/TD]
[TD] $ 47,300[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2016[/TD]
[TD] $ 89,500[/TD]
[TD] $ 77,300[/TD]
[TD] $ 61,900[/TD]
[TD] $ 48,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2017[/TD]
[TD] $ 112,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 85,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 69,200[/TD]
[TD] $ 50,900[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2020[/TD]
[TD] $ 95,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 80,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 58,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 48,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2025[/TD]
[TD] $ 110,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 85,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 62,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 58,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"]Condition[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MY 2005[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2015[/TD]
[TD] $ 84,800[/TD]
[TD] $ 73,500[/TD]
[TD] $ 64,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 61,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2016[/TD]
[TD] $ 96,400[/TD]
[TD] $ 79,500[/TD]
[TD] $ 69,200[/TD]
[TD] $ 61,700[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2017[/TD]
[TD] $ 124,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 99,300[/TD]
[TD] $ 82,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 63,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2020[/TD]
[TD] $ 125,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 100,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 80,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 70,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2025[/TD]
[TD] $ 150,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 110,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 90,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 72,000[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[SW2 Heritage Cars]

I updated the numbers in June and moved the whole process to excel, but I never did get around to posting it, so now seems like a good time! The market has cooled a bit, so some of these values from Hagerty strike me as a little high, but I will be consistent and rely on the Hagerty numbers for this experiment. Personally, I think that the 2016 numbers in general are a bit more accurate for values right now than the 2017 numbers, but I tend to be a bit conservative.

Moving to excel also allows me to make a pretty graph

[TABLE="width: 431"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"]Condition[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MY 1991[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2015[/TD]
[TD] $ 60,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 42,400[/TD]
[TD] $ 33,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 24,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2016[/TD]
[TD] $ 77,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 49,900[/TD]
[TD] $ 37,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 28,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2017[/TD]
[TD] $ 98,700[/TD]
[TD] $ 62,300[/TD]
[TD] $ 44,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 32,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2020[/TD]
[TD] $ 85,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 65,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 40,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 30,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2025[/TD]
[TD] $ 115,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 95,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 50,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 40,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"]Condition[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MY 1995[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2015[/TD]
[TD] $ 66,800[/TD]
[TD] $ 50,800[/TD]
[TD] $ 44,500[/TD]
[TD] $ 33,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2016[/TD]
[TD] $ 71,400[/TD]
[TD] $ 54,400[/TD]
[TD] $ 46,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 36,600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2017[/TD]
[TD] $ 91,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 67,900[/TD]
[TD] $ 54,700[/TD]
[TD] $ 41,100[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2020[/TD]
[TD] $ 68,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 62,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 46,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 42,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2025[/TD]
[TD] $ 85,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 68,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 50,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 40,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"]Condition[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MY 2001[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2015[/TD]
[TD] $ 74,800[/TD]
[TD] $ 63,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 53,900[/TD]
[TD] $ 47,300[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2016[/TD]
[TD] $ 89,500[/TD]
[TD] $ 77,300[/TD]
[TD] $ 61,900[/TD]
[TD] $ 48,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2017[/TD]
[TD] $ 112,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 85,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 69,200[/TD]
[TD] $ 50,900[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2020[/TD]
[TD] $ 95,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 80,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 58,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 48,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2025[/TD]
[TD] $ 110,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 85,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 62,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 58,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"]Condition[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MY 2005[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2015[/TD]
[TD] $ 84,800[/TD]
[TD] $ 73,500[/TD]
[TD] $ 64,600[/TD]
[TD] $ 61,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2016[/TD]
[TD] $ 96,400[/TD]
[TD] $ 79,500[/TD]
[TD] $ 69,200[/TD]
[TD] $ 61,700[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2017[/TD]
[TD] $ 124,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 99,300[/TD]
[TD] $ 82,100[/TD]
[TD] $ 63,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2020[/TD]
[TD] $ 125,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 100,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 80,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 70,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2025[/TD]
[TD] $ 150,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 110,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 90,000[/TD]
[TD] $ 72,000[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is great, how did you arrive at your future predictions? I agree that coupes will do very well as time goes on despite their higher production numbers, and '02+ will be the desired targa.

 

[blue_myriddn]

This is great, how did you arrive at your future predictions? I agree that coupes will do very well as time goes on despite their higher production numbers, and '02+ will be the desired targa.

Purely my personal opinion.

 

[SW2 Heritage Cars]

Purely my personal opinion.

Pretty much exactly aligns with mine.

 

[blue_myriddn]

To the great surprise of no one, values for 2018 remain almost identical to the values from 2017, so there is no need to update the table and charts, although I did add the data points to my local copy.

 

[blue_myriddn]

Time for a 2020 update. We are now 5 years out, so how did I do?

For consistency, I stuck with the Hagerty values rather than the improved values that have come up from this community. Their Level 1 vehicle values are the ones that I most was off base on and I still think Hagerty is being a little optimistic but then again there are so few level 1 NSXs that Hagerty might be correct to value them so high. The Red numbers are the new figures.



What I got right
Other than the Level 1 pricing, I was pretty much right on target with the 1991 vehicles. Similar story for the 2001 model, although the Level 2 vehicles did notably better than I could have predicted. Again, I think I was underestimating the number of Level 2 cars. For the 2001 model year, it may be that there are a total of 10 Level 1 cars in the country and maybe 30 Level 2 cars and that will impact the pricing quite a bit.


What I got wrong
I clearly missed the mark on the Level 1 car values and for the most part the Level 2 cars. I guess I was being a little conservative because they were pretty much across the board a lot higher than I would have thought.
I under estimated the value of the targa top - my 1995 numbers were quite a bit lower than Hagerty's. I personally didn't see it being a big jump to get that removable roof, I thought it would be balanced out by the purity of a stiffer chassis but it looks I just read the market wrong.
I over estimated the 2002 style a bit, clearly popups have gained in market strength as shown by the how close the 2001 and 2005 values are compared to my estimates.

Here are the pretty graphs

 

[MontK]

Great little table here. And the graphs also. I was looking five years ago for an early 90's model and thought they were too expensive for an old car back then... well I am kicking myself now and have painfully started looking again. You can't get a good manual in Australia for under $100k AUD so I was thinking of getting an auto and converting it to manual. That is also an expensive process that doesn't look like it will leave much change left over.

 

[jmarksnsx]

Good thread. I bought my 1997 in March 2014 and actually paid what Hagerty said a #2 car was worth then for my car in Jan. 2014 $48500. Just printed the latest May 2020 Hagerty Valuation today. My #2 car is said to be worth $88300! Might need to bump my insurance value up some at Grundy.

 

[bullithollywood]

Might need to rethink projections based on Haggerty's Oct 2021 valuations:

 

[Yinzer]

Good Lord. Here I thought I was over-valuating my '93 at $80k back in 2014 with Grundy. Time to increase coverage a bit I guess.