Not a big gambler, but I doubled my cash in Vegas
- Thread starter NsXMas
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While I will ocasionally roll the bones at a casino, I agree. Doesn't get much better than a poker night with da boyz.steveny said:
LeftLane said:
This is irrelevant to our discussion. The issue is whether 3rd-base's action (hitting or not) affects the next card (the dealer's card). The issue is not whether 3rd-base should take a card based on his hand and the probability distribution of potential cards.
LeftLane said:
3rd-base's actions never contribute to your outcome, unless there is extra information about what the next card is. If 3rd-base takes a card, the next card has p=1/13 (reduced from 52, since effectively, there are only 13 different cards in blackjack), and if 3rd-base doesn't take a card, the next card still has p=1/13. In other words, it is equally likely for the dealer's card to be a face card regardless of whether 3rd-base takes a card or not (assuming the conditions in my original post are met, i.e. randomness via 6-deck shoe, etc.).
It is amazing how inteligent people can not understand statistics.
Many times I have seen the player on third base hit or take a card and the dealer would of made a hand if he didn't do the wrong thing. Statistics dictate this happens exactly half of the time.
Stating what happened in a certain situation doesn't prove that the decisions a player makes affects your hand one way or the other.
I have a little brain teaser for anyone interested, please send me the answer over PM so it doesn't ruin it for others. Here goes:
You are on "Lets make a deal" and you know that a new NSX is behind one of the three doors and the other two have booby prizes. You pick one of the doors and afterwards the host shows you a booby prize in one of the other doors that you didn't pick. He then offers you the chance to switch your choice to the other unknown door.
Would it be better to:
A. Keep your current choice
B. Switch to the other door
C. No difference whatsoever, still a 50/50 chance of getting the car.
With your answer, let me know why you chose it. I will post the answer in a couple of days.
Many times I have seen the player on third base hit or take a card and the dealer would of made a hand if he didn't do the wrong thing. Statistics dictate this happens exactly half of the time.
Stating what happened in a certain situation doesn't prove that the decisions a player makes affects your hand one way or the other.
I have a little brain teaser for anyone interested, please send me the answer over PM so it doesn't ruin it for others. Here goes:
You are on "Lets make a deal" and you know that a new NSX is behind one of the three doors and the other two have booby prizes. You pick one of the doors and afterwards the host shows you a booby prize in one of the other doors that you didn't pick. He then offers you the chance to switch your choice to the other unknown door.
Would it be better to:
A. Keep your current choice
B. Switch to the other door
C. No difference whatsoever, still a 50/50 chance of getting the car.
With your answer, let me know why you chose it. I will post the answer in a couple of days.
Carguy and 2mph -- I'm with you guys. It amazes me that people confuse the fact that something happened with the odds of it happening in the first place. It's like losing a coin toss and complaining that you used a dime instead of a quarter because dammit, you lost the coin toss and it was a dime and everyone knows dimes always come up "heads".
Sig, sorry to hear about your bad luck but 3rd base had no impact on the ODDS of what the dealer got. The fact that the cards lined up a certain way sucked for you in that particular instance -- but that doesn't change the fact that if you repeated the same scenario (ie. laid out the same cards dealt out to people at the table up til the point that the dealer draws and from there the shoe is randomized) it would play out according to basic odds and the dealer will not usually hit 21. 3rd base does not affect the ODDS for the rest of the table, end of story. Let me put it this way: if you could go back in time and replay that end of that hand, but you got to reshuffle the shoe before the dealer draws, would you be willing to cancel the hand and get your money back? Hell no, you would play because you know the dealer isn't LIKELY to get 21. Win some, lose some.
Sig, sorry to hear about your bad luck but 3rd base had no impact on the ODDS of what the dealer got. The fact that the cards lined up a certain way sucked for you in that particular instance -- but that doesn't change the fact that if you repeated the same scenario (ie. laid out the same cards dealt out to people at the table up til the point that the dealer draws and from there the shoe is randomized) it would play out according to basic odds and the dealer will not usually hit 21. 3rd base does not affect the ODDS for the rest of the table, end of story. Let me put it this way: if you could go back in time and replay that end of that hand, but you got to reshuffle the shoe before the dealer draws, would you be willing to cancel the hand and get your money back? Hell no, you would play because you know the dealer isn't LIKELY to get 21. Win some, lose some.
I would love to play against some of you guys in a tournament!
If you believe true randomness still exists in the face of an obscenely high count, then I would welcome you to my table any day
If you believe true randomness still exists in the face of an obscenely high count, then I would welcome you to my table any day
Sig said:I would love to play against some of you guys in a tournament!
If you believe true randomness still exists in the face of an obscenely high count, then I would welcome you to my table any day
If you think high counts are going to help in a 6 or 7 deck shoe with 1/4 of the shoe past the cut card then I would love to play against you in a tournament.
I have run thousands of hours of computer simulations on blackjack and I would say I know more about the game than any author I have ever seen write a book on the game.
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