Investment Ideas

Ski_Banker said:
It's difficult for me to believe that there are undervalued real estate assets anywhere in California

No offense, but... you couldn't be more wrong about real estate in California. I can find AT LEAST 20-30 undervalued properties a day, just in the area I live in! That's what I do! Especially with the market softening, and everyone being scared about this supposed "bubble". I find undervalued properties (very undervalued mind you) and wholesale them with enough equity in them so that the investor is happy and I can walk away with more than my fair share. On average, I can find $50k - $80k in the $5-600k market. I mostly like to deal in the $1m+ market, where you can find a TON more equity, and the sellers are more flexible, but other/newer investors are more comfortable in the lower range.

Right now the stock market is near an all time high and it's probably one of the worst times to invest because it is more over valued than real estate. There are some good deals out there, they are just hard to find
 
ShiftyBob said:
Right now the stock market is near an all time high and it's probably one of the worst times to invest because it is more over valued than real estate. There are some good deals out there, they are just hard to find

You're out of your tree if you think U.S. stocks are overvalued relative to real estate.

I wasn't intending to inadvertently trample on your business -not at all- but I'd hate to see another inexperienced investor get suckered into real estate and lose his shirt. This bullshit you're writing, however, doesn't make me very sympathetic to your financial interests.

*I* don't have any financial interest the stock market (other than my own personal). I don't advise individuals on managing their money for a living, although I have all of the necessary regulatory & professional credentials to do so (Series 7/63, CFA Charter). Therefore, all else being equal -which it isn't- my commentary is far less likely to be clouded by business cheerleading than is yours.

Oh - nice """ around """ real estate "" bubble """" - very creative. Reminds me of the cell phone ad, where some ripoff wireless company tried to sell """anytime minutes"""

Good luck to you and the greater fool that will bail you out of your speculative """investments""".
 
Don't forget that the uber-wealthy obtain their wealth through 3 channels:

Real Estate
Equities
Inheritance

Not necessarily in any order. Ripping off poor folks comes in a distant 5th.

Also remember that when your house is worth nothing, you still have a house. When your stock is worth nothing you have nothing. I myself prefer stocks though because of the high transactional and carrying costs of real estate.

ShiftyBob said:
Right now the stock market is near an all time high and it's probably one of the worst times to invest because it is more over valued than real estate.
The stock market is NOT near an all time high. The NASDAQ Composite or the DOW or the S&P500 maybe; but you've taken an awfully narrow view of something that is orders of magnitude larger than the California real estate market. How about China, India, Japan, EU? Bonds anyone? Are they near all time highs too? I'm happy for you that you make a mint in real estate, but don't paint with such a broad brush.
 
If you want to keep funds liquid, perhaps municipal bonds? ONly pay about 3.5% (locally here in phx az) but are totally tax free, which is therefore (at my tax bracket) giving a "realized" yield of 5.75%! I just (yesterday) put a bunch of zeros into a risk free CD at 4.5%, which I can then pull out anytime after 6 days without any penalty. In 6 days time I am going to drop it into the municipal bonds (which i found out about 2 hrs after i opened the CD). I'm probnably going to take it and stick it into the stock market at some point i guess.
 
Ski_Banker said:
You're out of your tree... This bullshit you're writing... my commentary is far less likely to be clouded by business cheerleading than is yours.

Oh - nice """ around """ real estate "" bubble """" - very creative. Reminds me of the cell phone ad, where some ripoff wireless company tried to sell """anytime minutes"""

Good luck to you and the greater fool that will bail you out of your speculative """investments""".

Wow, calm down Ski! :eek: . I wasn't trying to start an argument here, so don't take offense. I didn't take offense to anything you wrote, nor did I think you were stepping on any toes :wink: . I don't know much about the stock market, so maybe I should not have commented, and I apologize :redface: . But many people think that the California market is bad and it's just simply not. It's not where it was 4-5 years ago, and we probably won't see that again for a long time, if ever. But let people think what they will, it works better for my interests because it makes it easier for me to buy.

I'm not on here to sell my services, I don't need to :biggrin: . I prefer NOT to work with investors I don't know. He was originally asking for investmentment ideas (hence the title), and I simply suggested one. The one that I suggested is being a hard money lender for investors, yes, a little unorthodox, but can give you GREAT returns. I also make nothing on that line of investing, I just have a network that I could get him involved in. If I were trying to sell myself or my interests, I could have suggested many other ways.

BTW, NOBODY has to "bail" me out of my investments! :rolleyes: It's a fool that puts all his investment eggs in one basket, especially in Real Estate. I have MANY avenues of income, one of which is my Investment company, but it is NOT my main source of income. Real estate is virtually NEVER a bad investment. You only lose money if you sell when the market is bad, otherwise you will always have appreciation, because the market will come back up. :cool:

And FWIW... I don't "rip-off" anyone, I don't need to. I donate nearly 20% of my net income to different charities...
 
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/

Check out the "Strategic Growth Fund"

I have been putting money in this for about 5 years now and he has done well. Investing is like anything else, the time you put into will pay for itself. Also risk for people is different. Some cant sleep at night if they are in a trade, others are the same if they win or lose. Figure out what your risk is and live in that range and it will save you a lot of stress. Biggest problem in investing that I have seen is emotion > all and people get cought up in that and make dumb choices.
 
ShiftyBob said:
Real estate is virtually NEVER a bad investment. You only lose money if you sell when the market is bad, otherwise you will always have appreciation, because the market will come back up. :cool:

I'll give several reasons why this is wrong:

Maintenance costs
Property Taxes
Non-income by vacancy
Undisclosed problems at purchase
Leverage requirements
Lack of liquidity
Insurance requirements
Eviction and Non-payment costs
High transaction costs

I agree the market will typically comeback as you say, but the same argument applies equally to equities and of course equities require no effort whatsoever.
 
The argument between RE and Stock can and will go on and on and on, each has its ups and down, to lower the risk both requires time. Since the OP is just asking for ideas, let's just respect each other's opinons and move on.
 
ShiftyBob said:
Wow, calm down Ski! :eek: . I wasn't trying to start an argument here, so don't take offense. I didn't take offense to anything you wrote, nor did I think you were stepping on any toes :wink: . I don't know much about the stock market, so maybe I should not have commented, and I apologize :redface: . But many people think that the California market is bad and it's just simply not. It's not where it was 4-5 years ago, and we probably won't see that again for a long time, if ever. But let people think what they will, it works better for my interests because it makes it easier for me to buy.

I'm not on here to sell my services, I don't need to :biggrin: . I prefer NOT to work with investors I don't know. He was originally asking for investmentment ideas (hence the title), and I simply suggested one. The one that I suggested is being a hard money lender for investors, yes, a little unorthodox, but can give you GREAT returns. I also make nothing on that line of investing, I just have a network that I could get him involved in. If I were trying to sell myself or my interests, I could have suggested many other ways.

BTW, NOBODY has to "bail" me out of my investments! :rolleyes: It's a fool that puts all his investment eggs in one basket, especially in Real Estate. I have MANY avenues of income, one of which is my Investment company, but it is NOT my main source of income. Real estate is virtually NEVER a bad investment. You only lose money if you sell when the market is bad, otherwise you will always have appreciation, because the market will come back up. :cool:

And FWIW... I don't "rip-off" anyone, I don't need to. I donate nearly 20% of my net income to different charities...

Shifty - first I apologize for coming across so heavy handed, and also for implying that yours is a ripoff business (I just thought the comparison to the cell phone ad was amusing, not necessarily accurate). While I disdain public advertising of returns "15% in 3 months" and the like, because 99% of the time those "unique investment opportunities" are in some way misleading/fraudulent or at the least fail to properly disclose the level of risk required to obtain such returns - I don't have any specific reason to doubt that you run a quality shop. Nor do I have a right to publically bash it. So, sorry. And - just for fun - I'll add the only emoticon you left out in the post above. :smile:

As for real estate - anywhere in the U.S.'s speculative markets - right now certainly is a "buyers market" if you think that valuations are appropriate. Liquidity has all but dried up, and I'm sure there are lots of properties that can be had for less than a year ago. However, I do NOT think that we are at/nearing a bottom. Best comparison would be to buying CSCO in 2001 - 20% below the all time high - but still 2+ years away from a low and only now, 6 years later, starting to rise again. We are several years away from a bottom, where prices will sit for quite a few more years before rising again at traditional 3% rates. Even if demand stabilizes, homebuilders are way overcapacity (even though labor is variable) and they will continue building houses.

Anyway, that's just the nature of investment "bubbles".
 
This actually just gave me an interesting idea:

Post a "What should I invest in?" question on several different forums.

- An integra forum
- An accord forum
- A BMW 3 series forum
- A Ferrari/Bentley forum

Would be interesting to see if the recommendations were different across various socioeconomic groups.
 
Ski_Banker said:
This actually just gave me an interesting idea:

Post a "What should I invest in?" question on several different forums.

- An integra forum
- An accord forum
- A BMW 3 series forum
- A Ferrari/Bentley forum

Would be interesting to see if the recommendations were different across various socioeconomic groups.

This is an interesting sociological proposition for review. I look forward to your paper...:tongue:
 
nsx2tall said:
I'll give several reasons why this is wrong:

Maintenance costs
Property Taxes
Non-income by vacancy
Undisclosed problems at purchase
Leverage requirements
Lack of liquidity
Insurance requirements
Eviction and Non-payment costs
High transaction costs

Most of that would apply if your buying at retail and holding... I agree. But with the financing that is available these days there are MANY ways around almost all of that. *I* for one would never buy a property at retail (except for the one I live in because my wife "had to have it"). There are ways you can buy a property under market value and LEGALLY get cash back at the close of escrow. That cash can help your carrying costs until you either sell or rent the property. When you deal in the luxury home market the amounts are substantial, enough that you could leave the property vacant for a year and still come out on top...
 
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Ski_Banker said:
While I disdain public advertising of returns "15% in 3 months" and the like, because 99% of the time those "unique investment opportunities" are in some way misleading/fraudulent or at the least fail to properly disclose the level of risk required to obtain such returns.

I agree that *most* unorthadox investments are scams or don't fully disclose the details in a manner that the return is not what is promised. But since I was not trying to "sell" anyone on the idea, I didn't fully explain it, just mentioned that it is available. The manner in which I speak of is very well known among real estate investors. It involves "partnering" on a down payment on a property and when the property closes you get your investment plus a percentage depending on the numbers. Another way is to lend a deposit to lock up a property and upon COE you get back your investment plus a substantial percentage (sometimes up to 100%). Obviously there is much more involved in these processes but that's not what this thread was intended for...

I'm not saying the stock market is a bad idea. A bad idea is letting money sit in your savings acount. There are just SEVERAL different ways to invest and I was just sharing one that I have found to be VERY profitable.:biggrin: (sorry, had to throw at least one smiley in there)
 
Ski_Banker said:
This actually just gave me an interesting idea:

Post a "What should I invest in?" question on several different forums.

- An integra forum
- An accord forum
- A BMW 3 series forum
- A Ferrari/Bentley forum

Would be interesting to see if the recommendations were different across various socioeconomic groups.


 
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ShiftyBob said:
Most of that would apply if your buying at retail and holding... I agree. But with the financing that is available these days there are MANY ways around almost all of that. *I* for one would never buy a property at retail (except for the one I live in because my wife "had to have it"). There are ways you can buy a property under market value and LEGALLY get cash back at the close of escrow. That cash can help your carrying costs until you either sell or rent the property. When you deal in the luxury home market the amounts are substantial, enough that you could leave the property vacant for a year and still come out on top...

Bob,

If you're successful doing so, then more power to you. But can you really pick up a luxury home in this market, have it sit unoccupied for a year, and still come out on top? Let's assume a conservative 5% closing cost for the purchase and future sale, 1% property tax, and say another 6% or so for carrying the mortgage for the year. Even assuming you can sell the property quickly (say 3-6 months), can you really purchase a luxury home for 15-20% less than FMV? If so, how?

As far as land banking, there are many pitfalls for the individual investor. I personally would not recommend this as a "safe" investment - it may have a place in someone's portfolio, but not as a primary retirement investment. Dealing with the city for zoning, environmental concerns, and architectural design is a difficult process at best, and requirements vary from city to city. If the plan is to simply find a parcel that builders WILL want (without doing any entitlement to increase value), that is, of course, a gamble. Many public builders are currently curtailing future building plans, and many are disposing of their current inventory of undeveloped land. Picking out a suitable parcel is beyond the ability of most individual investors.

Mike
 
ShiftyBob said:
Another way is to lend a deposit to lock up a property and upon COE you get back your investment plus a substantial percentage (sometimes up to 100%).

Mezz debt, only to lock up the property until COE? Not a bad idea if you have solid investors who will go for this. Any guarantee if the property falls out of escrow?
 
pvmike said:
Bob,

can you really pick up a luxury home in this market, have it sit unoccupied for a year, and still come out on top? can you really purchase a luxury home for 15-20% less than FMV? If so, how?

As far as land banking

Mike

Absolutely, you can do those things :biggrin: . I pick up luxury homes sometimes at almost 50% under, you just have to know how to do it. I do this on a daily basis and also teach others to do it as well (teach others to buy and sell, not to find them. That's a secret :wink: ) As an example, I purchased a property in CA earlier this year for $1.7m, it appraised at $2.7...:eek:

I don't know if the land banking stuff was directed at me but I don't deal in land banking. Tried it once, pain in the ass, not my cup of tea.
 
Ski_Banker said:
Funny... Nasdaq is up 4% since this thread started two weeks ago.

And real estate has taken a big downward turn. Unfortunate for the people that HAVE TO sell. Works in my favor though...
 
pvmike said:
As far as land banking, there are many pitfalls for the individual investor. I personally would not recommend this as a "safe" investment - it may have a place in someone's portfolio, but not as a primary retirement investment. Dealing with the city for zoning, environmental concerns, and architectural design is a difficult process at best, and requirements vary from city to city. If the plan is to simply find a parcel that builders WILL want (without doing any entitlement to increase value), that is, of course, a gamble. Many public builders are currently curtailing future building plans, and many are disposing of their current inventory of undeveloped land. Picking out a suitable parcel is beyond the ability of most individual investors.

Mike

Basic Land Banking.

What is the motivation for this area or city to grow, a new airport (not air force base), new interstate freeway/highway, Walmart dist. center, etc..... (creats jobs and populations growth)

Those are some of the basic elements to look for when investing in land banking.

2nd, look for within city limit pre-zoned area (General Commercial, Manufacturing, Inudustrial, Residential, etc.. each city name them a little different, but you can get a list of what each zoning is allow to do), no where near or surrounded by BLM (a federal enviromental agency).

Than you must look for if there are any hidden issue with this lot, such as under ground drainage easements, clouded title, power easements just to name a few.

Next, its to see how far the nearest residental developement is, I ususally like to stay within a couple of miles from it (which gives me a idea when I should sell). Look into where this city issues new permitts for projects than you can find out what is go to be where for the next 2-4 years (give me a good idea when and where thing will be).

There are lots of reaserch to do for this, that is why I mention to look for a
company specialize in Land Banking, they can minimize the risk factor by far (specially the hidden issues I had mention above).

After all that, than you consider if this is the lot for you.

It is not for everyone, but all I can said is I did very well from it and it is not a one time deal, I had turn one lot to 3 lots, and with 1031 exchange, I have not pay a dime in capital gain taxes, unlike stock, if I change from stock investment to real estate, I must pay capital gain first (please correct me if I'm wrong, and I do believe there should be ways around that also), than I can purchase the real estate property I want.

Just something that worked and still working pretty well for me.

Good Luck...
 
Ski_Banker said:
Also, 99.9% of the time, anything that is "out of the ordinary" or a "unique investment opportunity" is a bad bad idea. Stick to the basics. Stocks, mutual funds, bonds. K.I.S.S. wins in investment management without fail.

I agree. Not that I'm rich and should be giving advise, but it seems to me, you will be far better off accepting normal returns then risking everything to get 2-3% more returns.

That said, most of my money is in index mutual funds. I want to get into rental property, but not anytime soon.
 
Throwing in my couple of cents...

Based on my experience, and various literatures that has helped build a simple mindset (the millionaire next door, rich dad/poor dad and blue ocean strategies come to mind...) I've been very happy financially taking some of the steps I’ve taken in the last few years. My philosophy is very simple - hard work, live below your means, maintain excellent credit (740+), think long term, always look for people smarter then you to be mentors (this is hard..) and maximize the 'value' and return on your money...

As such, I've done the following:
1.) Focused on my personal education to provide me the ability to have a job with reasonable pay, and live below my means so I can have the ‘most’ (eg very little..) capital to work with.
2.) Maximize 401K & Roth IRA - and forget looking at it, just let it grow modestly and if you make it to 6x you can have some pocket change :)
3.) Purchased at least 1 property / year for the last 3/4 years, renting out the properties, actively managing them and leveraging additional purchases through the home. This has been the most active part of the last few years and I've been very happy. It also provides great tax advantages as well....
4.) Purchased stock here and there for x amount of time speculating for 10%+ return during that time (eg buy MSFT @ 22 and sell at... 30+ :) )... but nothing fancy or big in this area.. this is very cut and run and I do not claim any expertise in it...
5.) Actively pursuing a business venture that can provide income better then working in corporate America (have lots of ideas.. but have not taken the plunge yet…open to ideas though ...)

I particularly like Real Estate though. A 5% or 10% down-payment always provides excellent returns when you look at the last *30* years when holding a property for *at least* 5+ years. For example: Take 25K on a 500K house with a *very* conservative 5% return year would be worth $640K after 5 years and even with 6% closing costs, return is still about 100K. This is 300 - 400% on the original 25k. This is not to say that RE doesn't go down - yes it does, but with some sound principles, good management and holding period of "at least 5 years" the return will still be very reasonable...
Sure beats average stock returns of 12% a year as far as I'm concerned….

I know that this is very general, and it does not specify all the little details and costs that come up in between. Particularly with RE though, the costs are tax-deductable, and 'smart' remodeling investment have returns of at least 1-1 (however, everyone that says "spend 10K on remodeling and get 50K back is, generally speaking, wrong and doesn't know what he/she is talking about.....)

As a result of this philosophy, we (my wife & I) own 2 residential homes in good solid neighborhoods with considerable equity, and 4 apartments with good equity that provides excellent rental income (in comparison to residential homes - at a cost in appreciation, but I'm very happy with the other 2 so I see it as diversity..) This has blessed us with acquiring a net worth with stocks, RE and other assets that we're very comfortable given our age (24 & 19..) and that should grow ok over the next few decades…

We were looking at purchasing another property this fall but we decided to get an NSX instead and forgo that adventure till next year :) (Actually I found an excellent home that I felt was 20% undervalue and probably the best home I saw in the last 3/4 years.. however I lost it b/c of stupid reasons and I got bummed, real bummed .. so I bought the NSX to cheer me up :) )

In short, the most important lesson I've learned in life and from everyone that I've seen be successful is - work hard and stay on top of your game, keep your eyes open and take calculated risks, be good at what you're doing, maximize the return on your dollar, and most importantly work hard...

Good luck to everyone that is looking for ways to get rich (myself included :) )! And, if anyone is looking for a partner in commercial RE – let me know, I’m looking for some new adventures…. :biggrin:
 
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ShiftyBob said:
Care to compare retirement portfolio's? :biggrin:
sorry, haven't viewed this thread since my post.

i'm pretty comfortable with the size & performance of my, errr, financial position, so have no need to compare... but thanks for asking. :rolleyes:
 
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