Future of California real estate ???

Real estate where I live now, has dropped HUGE! It used to be where an average nice home was in the 300's. Now lately, I've seen them in the 250's range.

There's this subdivision behind my family's home. They're being sold for about $400k-$500k in the beginning. Years pass, price drops to the upper 300ks. Now they're creeping towards the mid $300ks. They just can't sell them at those prices anymore. I believe the figures were... 40% of the homes stand unsold and have been for atleast a year. This subdivision is about 60% filled and they stopped all construction. Good bye former tomato/corn field. We have subdivisions all around the county right now, with 1/2 of the lots built or even 10% in some! Pretty crazy. Sucks to see it look sh!tty like that, but it only helps me in the end by lowering the pricing to where I can afford them...again...eventually.
 
I just sold my 6/3 for just under $2mil.

I live by myself and the 3000 sq/ft house was starting to be a bit big for me.

Putting the $$$ in other investments (this stock market drop is a blessing), and when the market starts to pick up in the housing market, I'll start looking again.

Feels weird to rent, but the lack of a mortgage is so nice. :)
 
Depends on your time frame.

Next two or three years? It's a roll of the dice.

Ten to twenty? No brainer. They're not making any more land.
 
I think he's 100% right about when dumb money follows smart money. I've seen that in a lot of things.
 
According to the writer, he says
"For the next two years, I'm cautioning people to watch their ratios between good debt and bad debt, and keep liquid reserves such as cash, gold, or silver.:

Sounds like he is saying wait two years. If you trust him, follow his advice.

Having sold and bought a home in this market (Nov/Dec 2006) here is what my experience tells me:

If you have a house to sell, sell now, get as much as you can and get into a house you want since it's price has come down too. If you wait to sell, you could end up selling for much less. Cash now is better than less debt later. It's a tough balancing point. You could wait to buy for less, which will reduce your debt and sell for less at the same time. Or, you can sell for more and pay more now, and use the gain to still reduce the debt. The breakeven point will be tough to calculate for the next two years.

If you don't have a house to sell, then waiting is a fine strategy, but don't let life pass you buy, if you find something that is right for you (the right house at a great price).
 


thats all well and good except it ONLY deals with new homes...IMO this is not a good indicator of what is going on as most new homes are in outlying areas and there are only so many people who want to drive for EVERYTHING...

there are only so many people who can buy a home and we have almost reached that limit, that is not to say that current builds will not increase in value..
 
Robert Kiyosaki is a very business smart man.

The Ultimate great piece of info he indulges is if you buy a home and it depreciates, you are in dead water.

So ultimately make sure what you are buying will not crash and take a value nose dive.

I started a couple thread with great RE Info...

http://www.nsxprime.com/forums/showthread.php?t=84140

http://www.nsxprime.com/forums/showthread.php?t=82435&highlight=Future

Goodluck, and the Great thing about SoCal is that you dont have to worry too much about houses depreciating. In Selected areas of course

Keep the info flowing!
 
Depends on your time frame.

Next two or three years? It's a roll of the dice.

Ten to twenty? No brainer. They're not making any more land.

Very true. CA real estate has and always will be cyclical. The next 3-5 years should be stable/slightly declining and a good buyer's market. After that prices will rise again. The periods of appreciation are always longer than the periods of depreciation here. The last downward trend in CA lasted from 1989-1995. The upward trend lasted from 1996-2006, and even in 2007 homes in some areas are still moving slightly upwards at maybe 1-3% per year or more

CA real estate has always been a great long-term investment. And by long term I mean 10 years or more.
 
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