Change in prices with the introduction of the new NSX

[payam972]

In the short run the NSX will appreciate because you can't buy a new NSX until at least when 2015? I think with options, the new NSX will be closer to $150k but that's just a guess.

The superbowl commerical and the media coverage of the new NSX has created new interest. People want to buy one now, so they have no choice but to focus on the used NSX models available. The highest values will be for 100% stock, original cars.

When the new car comes out, some buyers who can afford the new NSX will sell their old NSX to buy the new one. This will bring more NSX's to market.

Then it's simple Supply and Demand. More used ones will be available than there are buyers, selling prices of 1991-2005's will drop.

Eventually the new NSX will depreciate to half its original value (how many years this will take depends on how many they produce a year) and this will cause 1991-2005's to drop again. The New NSX will have better performance, etc. so it will always be worth more than the current NSX. How much more is anybody's guess, Maybe twice as much?

A very loose comparison would be the Honda S2000. It's hard to find a unmodified, low mileage, original S2000. If you do, you will pay top dollar. If Honda comes out with a new and improved S2000, the values on the old ones will drop.

This is just my opinion and I could be wrong but I've been buying and selling cars for almost 25 years.

Or it could play out like 993-996. Where the 996 values drop and the 993 values go up. Where people realize the original is much better than the new one in some instances, regardless of performance. Who knows. We'll see

 

[HockeyGoalie]

Or it could play out like 993-996. Where the 996 values drop and the 993 values go up. Where people realize the original is much better than the new one in some instances, regardless of performance. Who knows. We'll see

No this is Supply and Demand as well. 996's are worth less because they sold twice as many 996's compared to the 993.

World wide: 993 sales average 15,000 per year, 996 sales average 30,000 per year and were sold for a longer period of time.

Total World wide production (approximate):
50,000 = 993's
170,000 = 996's

The current NSX will never be worth more than the upcoming NSX. The new NSX will have better performance, and due to the higher price tag, will be sold in lower numbers.

A V8 Audi R8 will never be worth more than a V10 R8. A fist gen Viper is not worth more than a 3rd gen Viper, etc.

 

[payam972]

No this is Supply and Demand as well. 996's are worth less because they sold twice as many 996's compared to the 993.

World wide: 993 sales average 15,000 per year, 996 sales average 30,000 per year and were sold for a longer period of time.

Total World wide production (approximate):
50,000 = 993's
170,000 = 996's

The current NSX will never be worth more than the upcoming NSX. The new NSX will have better performance, and due to the higher price tag, will be sold in lower numbers.

A V8 Audi R8 will never be worth more than a V10 R8. A fist gen Viper is not worth more than a 3rd gen Viper, etc.

A huge part of the reasoning behind 993 being worth more than 996 is LOOKS, "last of the air cooled", reliability and all that.

The r8s all have the same body style. Minimal changes between v8 and v10. So that isn't really the same situation.

All I'm saying is. There might be more to it like the 993s to 996s. The new nsx could come out and while it's faster and all that, it won't have the original effect and timeless exotic appeal.

I compare it to this as well. A clean low mile r34 gtr could be worth more than a new body style gtr. It's not all about which car is newer and more powerful. I do agree with some of your points though.

I think in the future. An ultra low mile rare color such as imola orange will be worth over 100k. I'm talking maybe ten years from now. Those type cars I think will be worth more than the new body nsx.

 

[HockeyGoalie]

A huge part of the reasoning behind 993 being worth more than 996 is LOOKS, "last of the air cooled", reliability and all that.

The r8s all have the same body style. Minimal changes between v8 and v10. So that isn't really the same situation.

All I'm saying is. There might be more to it like the 993s to 996s. The new nsx could come out and while it's faster and all that, it won't have the original effect and timeless exotic appeal.

I compare it to this as well. A clean low mile r34 gtr could be worth more than a new body style gtr. It's not all about which car is newer and more powerful. I do agree with some of your points though.

You make good points as well, after all we're just speculating here, time will tell. I hear you.

The R34 GTR will be worth more because the production numbers are lower, The new GTR is mass produced (supply & demand)

 

[KSXNSX]

A huge part of the reasoning behind 993 being worth more than 996 is LOOKS, "last of the air cooled", reliability and all that.

The r8s all have the same body style. Minimal changes between v8 and v10. So that isn't really the same situation.

All I'm saying is. There might be more to it like the 993s to 996s. The new nsx could come out and while it's faster and all that, it won't have the original effect and timeless exotic appeal.

I compare it to this as well. A clean low mile r34 gtr could be worth more than a new body style gtr. It's not all about which car is newer and more powerful. I do agree with some of your points though.

I think in the future. An ultra low mile rare color such as imola orange will be worth over 100k. I'm talking maybe ten years from now. Those type cars I think will be worth more than the new body nsx.

Yup. Hockeygoalie conveniently overlooks the fact that the 996 is regarded as one of the most hated designs to porsche enthusiasts. His numbers also don't really support his argument at all. If supply is the key determinant factor, then that would suggest that the first-gen NSX will hold its value just fine.

There are also no numbers out on the production numbers for the future NSX. Yes, it will be most likely a limited production halo car. But to say that it will be more rare than the original...who has any information on that? They don't even have an engine for it yet.

All we can say is that this will likely be a 120-150k car + markup based on technology, looks, market competition, rumors, etc. That is approximately double the current cost of an 02-05, and over 5 times the cost of the cheaper earlier models.

As for hockeygoalie's assumption that enough current owners will dump their cars for the new one (thus flooding the market and creating excessive supply), please see my post about how only a few current owners will be doing that. The new model will be out of many of our price ranges. even if we were able to sell an 05 for 70k, we'd still have to come up with nearly 50-100k after all is said and done with markups. There are some owners that can do this, but definitely not enough to "flood" the market and drive up supply. Even if supply were driven up hypothetically, that does nothing to demand for the car. You should know this. You are still looking aren't you?

It's not going to happen.

 

[HockeyGoalie]

Yup. Hockeygoalie conveniently overlooks the fact that the 996 is regarded as one of the most hated designs to porsche enthusiasts. His numbers also don't really support his argument at all. If supply is the key determinant factor, then that would suggest that the first-gen NSX will hold its value just fine.

The post above proves my point exactly.......I think the confusion here is that people are not understanding the meaning of Supply and Demand. Supply is NOT the key determining factor, the relationship between Supply and Demand is. Yes, I am an Economics Major.

Two basic assumptions:

1) When Supply exceeds Demand: Prices Drop
2) When Demand exceeds Supply: Prices Rise

In the quote above, the poster states "the 996 is regarded as one of the most hated (I agree) designs to porsche enthusiasts (I am a porsche enthusiasts, I own 2)"

What he's really saying in Economic terms is that DEMAND of the 996 is LOW. We all agree per my previous post that 996 production numbers were HIGH, Translation: SUPPLY of the 996 is high.

See #1 above, when SUPPLY exceeds DEMAND (as the 996 does) prices drop.

Another posted stated the 993 is desirable because it was the last of the air cooled 911's. (I couldn't agree more). What he's really saying is the DEMAND for the 993 is high. We've established that SUPPLY of 993's are low. See number 2 above:

When DEMAND exceeds SUPPLY (as the 993 does) prices rise

Based on this assumption a 993 will be worth more than a 996.

Another posted stated he felt the R34 GTR will be worth more than the new GTR. I agree 100%. Assuming demand for both are the same, the SUPPLY of R34's are less than the new GTR. Therefore the R34 will eventually be worth more. Which is faster has nothing to do with which will be worth more.

A 1960 Ferrari 250 is worth much more then a new Ferrari 458. Why? The 1960 Ferrari 250 is 0-60 in 8 seconds but is worth millions more than a 0-60 in 3 seconds Ferrari 458. Why? Because there is a smaller SUPPLY of 1960 Ferrari 250's.

Think of it like the housing market. A few years ago when everyone could qualify for a mortgage, and unemployment was low, DEMAND for housing exceeded the SUPPLY of houses on the market, so therefore the price of a houses went way up.

Today, when people have lost their jobs and it is harder to qualify for a mortgage, housing DEMAND is very low and the inventory (SUPPLY) of houses for sale is very high, this has caused housing prices to decrease sharply.

The new NSX due to the high price point will probably only sell 100 or 200 (that's just a wild guess of US annual sales) for 5 years. Let's assume a total production of 1,000 cars for the upcoming NSX.

There are 9,849 1991-2005 NSX's built. Assuming Demand is the same, the new NSX will be worth more because the SUPPLY is less.

Now, if there is a change to the Demand this would change the outcome. For example, lets assume every new NSX has an engine failure, 100% of them. The DEMAND for the new NSX would be low and this would off set the low SUPPLY and therefor the first gen NSX would be worth more.

We're just having fun here. No one can predict the future. I'm not trying to offend anyone.

I'm buying an NSX to enjoy because they are fun to drive, I love mid engine cars. I'm not buying it for investment potential. If that was the case, I would buy a 2005 with 10 miles on it and lock it away in a climate controlled storage bubble.

If u modify your car, your investment potential is out the window anyway so enjoy your wonderful car and don't worry about saving it for the next owner.

I will be buying one shortly.

 

[HockeyGoalie]

As for hockeygoalie's assumption that enough current owners will dump their cars for the new one (thus flooding the market and creating excessive supply), please see my post about how only a few current owners will be doing that. The new model will be out of many of our price ranges. even if we were able to sell an 05 for 70k, we'd still have to come up with nearly 50-100k after all is said and done with markups. There are some owners that can do this, but definitely not enough to "flood" the market and drive up supply.

In my opinion it doesn't take that many cars to create an excessive supply. I'm making up the following numbers. Let's assume there are currently 50 NSX for sale at any one time out of a total production of 9,849.

If 1% of those 9,849 owners (98) decide to sell their NSX in 2015 to purchase a new NSX there would be 148 (98+50) NSX's for sale in 2015 instead of 50. Assuming the DEMAND is exactly the same, the supply has tripled which would be considered flooding the market. If SUPPLY is greater then DEMAND prices will drop.

I don't think its a stretch that 1% of the 9,849 owners could afford a $170k car. That 1% might decide to have 2 NSX's and not trade in their old NSX.

You are correct that there are many other reasons that could affect the Demand or Supply. It will be a function of the economy, competition to the NSX, etc.

 

[A.S. Motorsport]

Pricing has rising over here.
Although i'd need to verify that but after having a quick look my impression is that they have gone up in value.

 

[ConVerTT]

Your premise is correct but your argument is flawed.

You are correct on the supply of the 996s exceeding that of the 993s, but what about the demand? Initial demand for the 996 exceeded that of the 993 - that is why more were initially manufactured and sold. But subsequently, demand for the retro-styled 997 (commonly viewed as the correct modern interpretation and progression of the 911 lineage) and the increased appreciation of the nostalgic (last of the air cooled, blah blah blah) 993 resulted in an oversupply of 996s as owners sold them in favor of 993s and 997s. The result - increased supply of 996s with decreasing demand equaling falling prices. Simultaneously, increasing demand with static or declining supply of 993s resulting in increased prices.

Here is another, perhaps simpler way to point out the flaw in your argument. The spread between the 993 and the 996 has narrowed even though there is an 997 in the market.

Obviously I don't think that our NSX's will be worth more than the new one any time soon. However, I do think that it is very possible that in our lifetime a "vintage" NSX will exceed the value of 2015 (especially if Honda gets it wrong, like keeping that current front fascia :frown

No this is Supply and Demand as well. 996's are worth less because they sold twice as many 996's compared to the 993.

World wide: 993 sales average 15,000 per year, 996 sales average 30,000 per year and were sold for a longer period of time.

Total World wide production (approximate):
50,000 = 993's
170,000 = 996's

The current NSX will never be worth more than the upcoming NSX. The new NSX will have better performance, and due to the higher price tag, will be sold in lower numbers.

A V8 Audi R8 will never be worth more than a V10 R8. A fist gen Viper is not worth more than a 3rd gen Viper, etc.

 

[Ghoxt]

I guess I should stop driving my just purchased 92 with 18K (Yearly inspection validated) miles on it. :biggrin:

**A/C CCU self fixed. All Caps replaced; works flawless at lower fan speeds.
**Only mod will be lowering the OEM seat cushions by 2" or so.

I'm all stock except for the Blitz Type 3 wheels. I bought it like that. Looks too bland of course with stock wheels. I hope that won't drop the price "if" I ever sell it and buy an R8 etc :wink:....If my computer App gets off the ground sucessfully then I can \o/

 

[doctor z]

I say, older model NSX has zero in common with supposed newer model NSX except the NSX badge. These two cars couldnt be more different. Might as well compare to a V.W. The older model is a rare timeless classic. It has proven its worth for 21 years. With a loyal, dedicated, rabid, following. New model, just a wannabe, trying to capitalize on the real thing. That new model will be a forgotten experiment in a few years. Old model will continue to rise in price. And always be my favorite car. So, did anybody freak out and drool all over themselves when they saw the new NSX for the first time? Well I certainly did the first time I saw the old NSX back in 1998. When I saw the new model, I thought, " that is fugly". Not quite the same first impression. IMHO. We NSX owners are living the dream, nothing else comes close, or ever will.

 

[Lostbuckeye]

I said this somewhere in another post. I don't ever buy cars as an investment. I buy cars to enjoy them for what they do well in their performance. Whether they increase or decrease in value makes no difference to me as long as I enjoy my purchase. I've wanted an NSX since I saw my first one in 91 and it took me 20 yrs to acquire one. I've owned my 91 NSX for one year now, it is everything and more than I had imagined and I have no plans to sell it. If it's worth more when my son gets it from my estate, then good for him. I too have a background in economics and it's taken me years to realize that somethings have a value that's unaffected by supply and demand.

As a side note, there are economists that believe that the glass is half full and those that believe that the glass is half empty. I always ask what happens if you break the glass.

 

[lustedp]

Re: Change in prices with the intoduction of the new NSX

As an 05 owner....the 2 questions I get constantly from on lookers are:

What year is your NSX?

Are you thinking of buying the new one?

When I answer the first question with 2005....most are surprised and didnt think they were made that late and thought production stopped in the 90's. Then I see the wheels turning in there head like...."Hmmmm I wonder what I can pick one of these up for?"...and then they ask prices!

When I answer the 2nd question with "the new one is potentially going to be hybrid"....I get this from EVERYONE...
Followed by...NO WAY, why would you ever sell this one?....my point exactly! That's why I bought one!

I think price appreciation of 02-05 is going to depend on the final specs of the new one...every interested person who speaks with me about the new NSX just assumes that Acura coming out with a BEAST to take out the GTR....either way it doesn't matter because I'm not selling my 05!:biggrin:

get asked the same questions!

 

[Coconut]

I say, older model NSX has zero in common with supposed newer model NSX except the NSX badge. These two cars couldnt be more different. Might as well compare to a V.W. The older model is a rare timeless classic. It has proven its worth for 21 years. With a loyal, dedicated, rabid, following. New model, just a wannabe, trying to capitalize on the real thing. That new model will be a forgotten experiment in a few years. Old model will continue to rise in price. And always be my favorite car. So, did anybody freak out and drool all over themselves when they saw the new NSX for the first time? Well I certainly did the first time I saw the old NSX back in 1998. When I saw the new model, I thought, " that is fugly". Not quite the same first impression. IMHO. We NSX owners are living the dream, nothing else comes close, or ever will.

^Gotta agree with him.