Gotcha. :smile:
Best Guess of remaining NSX
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Ski_Banker
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Not to get into a pissing match here, as I think Ken, NSXGMS and I are all defining "remaining" NSXs differently. I consider "remaining" to be "in decent shape" so it would probably exclude anything for sale less than ~$20k and those with salvage titles. In other words, only the nicer ~$28k+ early NSXs. That said, an attrition rate of 2% (ie, that the average car stays "clean" as defined above for 50 years) is obviously too low. Likewise, I'm sure there are more than 2500 salvageable, NSXs lying around too.
Love your Porsche formula!:biggrin:
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How did you do the maths? Formula?
If I calculate with 2 % loss factor per year: 0.98^16 = 0.724 * 7383 cars = 5343.8
)) cars. This formula suggests that the wrecked never appears on the road again which certainly is not the case. But my calculation is wrong, completely wrong as not all 7383 cars were sold in 1991, the younger model-years have even less wreckes in number even if the prob is the same. With your 10% rate you say only 1/3 of the US NSX's survived?
Even if the car has a salvage title this is only the view of the insurance if they have to pay the car to get back into the state it was before. Many of these cars get back on the road again because there are enough black sheeps out there who do everything for money.
But still I'm not familiar with the US driving habits. :tongue:
Thanks for the 700 number NSXtasy! That means that even if 200 have been brought here from you fine fellows down south, there are probably less than 750 in Canada. That's pretty cool:smile:
A few additional thoughts have come to me while reading this thread; I share these for entertainment only.
It is apparent we are a "Rare Breed" and becoming more so every year.
The Few, The Proud, The NSX's
According to some recent speculation; due to attrition, we may only have 19 NSXs left by the time of NSXPO.
Who is bringing the other18. :wink: :biggrin:
Protect those cars boys!!! "They ain't makin NO more." 
All this speculation about attrition; I am starting to feel like a contestant on "Survivor".
:biggrin:
Please pardon my digression; I still feel there are somewhere over 6,000 left. That is purely a hunch; but these cars do tend to rise from the ashes unless parted out.
It is apparent we are a "Rare Breed" and becoming more so every year.
The Few, The Proud, The NSX's
According to some recent speculation; due to attrition, we may only have 19 NSXs left by the time of NSXPO.
Who is bringing the other18. :wink: :biggrin:
Protect those cars boys!!! "They ain't makin NO more."
All this speculation about attrition; I am starting to feel like a contestant on "Survivor".
:biggrin: Please pardon my digression; I still feel there are somewhere over 6,000 left. That is purely a hunch; but these cars do tend to rise from the ashes unless parted out.
Ski_Banker
Suspended
"sjones" has noted a bunch of crashes in the last 3 months. That's at least 13 crashes in the last 3 month just on prime alone that we know of.
http://www.nsxprime.com/forums/showpost.php?p=819371&postcount=2
Makes me wonder if the the 6,000 + figures are a bit high.
http://www.nsxprime.com/forums/showpost.php?p=819371&postcount=2
Makes me wonder if the the 6,000 + figures are a bit high.
vsy05, would you clarify your definition of "remaining" from your original post? Many here seem to be using varying criteria, from "collectible" to "anything for sale less than ~$20k and those with salvage titles", to try to answer your question. Frankly, I'm confused.
My own opinion is that "remaining" should count any car that's roadworthy.
In case you're wondering where I got it from, Honda's press website shows that 698 NSXs were sold in Canada through the end of 2004 (calendar year, not model year). Since they were only selling a few cars a year by that point...
I think it's a reasonable assumption that the number of USIM cars imported to Canada equals the number of CIM cars exported to the United States. Even if the numbers aren't exactly equal, the difference is likely to be quite small.
That's the right way to do the calculation - except we know the exact numbers for each of the last few years (thanks, Ben!) so you don't need to use 250, which is an overestimate.
Anecdotal evidence regarding individual occurrences is almost never indicative of any need to change assumptions in the aggregate. This example is no exception.
Of course, that merely trades the semantic question of defining "remaining" for that of defining "roadworthy". :biggrin:
May I suggest a working definition:
If you can drive it, on the street or the track, it is still an operating NSX and therefore viable as a car that is fulfilling its design purpose. If the car is undergoing a rebuild/modification and will be capable of being driven on the street or track in the foreseeable future it is also a viable car.
If you can drive it, on the street or the track, it is still an operating NSX and therefore viable as a car that is fulfilling its design purpose. If the car is undergoing a rebuild/modification and will be capable of being driven on the street or track in the foreseeable future it is also a viable car.
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- Joined
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It's not basically the same car. Ferraris get driven much less and are much less reliable so they're much less 'pushed'. The NSX invites you to rev high and drive fast because of it's reliability and cornerability.
Correct. Median mileage on NSXs is 5K miles/year. On Ferraris it's under 2K/year.
Ski_Banker
Suspended
Lol, thanks for the kind words. But, no, I didn't have official data or anything of the sort. Just the Bible (aka NSX Prime FAQ). Was bored one evening wondering the same thing. Since I was including "beaters" in my original definition, I figured 5-10% would be appropriate since most cars don't last more than 10-20 years.
You bring up a great point though - I imagine one of the Prime guys in the insurance industry could just lookup U.S. NSXs and see how many salvage, etc. titles were issued. Maybe do a search in that proprietary industry database for the first few NSX-specific VIN characters. It wouldn't directly answer the question, but would be a good first step.
I'm sure a fairly simple algorithm could be devised that would accurately predict NSX declines -- IF you had the raw data on NSX counts or those of other cars.
The problem with that calculation isn't the algorithm; it's the assumption regarding the percentage to use. Unless you have something to base it on, it's pure guesswork.
Sure you could. That's exactly how the Integra Type R analysis was performed. Oh, and querying that "proprietary industry database" consisted of pulling a Carfax for each VIN. You'd just have to do it for more than twice as many cars as for the ITRs.
I think this is a baseless statement--no offense. I don't think it's accurate to state categorically that the NSX is more "pushed"--both cars have very similar performance characteristics and have a somewhat similar demographic up until very recently. Both are exactly the same category of car.
You're correct that the F355 is driven much less on average than an NSX but most other characteristics are essentially similar. True, I'm sure there are slightly more salvaged F355s due to blown engines and trannys, etc. but only slightly more. I would assume about the same amount of NSXs are out of commission due to parts failures as F355s. Most are rebuilt due to their high residual value.
As far as mileage, yes, I would probably double the attrition rate based on ~2,500 average annual miles for the Ferrari and ~5,000 average miles for the NSX. But a straight doubling is probably quite accurate. I don't really believe NSXs are driven harder than F355s or that unlike the F355 the "NSX invites you to [push it]." That's a totally baseless statement. Most owners of either car don't push them very hard.
I think a basic doubling of the attrition rate for the F355 would result in a very accurate attrition rate for the NSX with a reasonable margin of error.
Nsx's including rare ones as noted by Ben and other members.
http://www.nsxprime.com/forums/showthread.php?t=101439&highlight=nsxfriend
http://www.nsxprime.com/forums/showthread.php?t=101439&highlight=nsxfriend
Greetings
There were 6325 cars produced in the first 5 years out of the total count of 8949. This means that 70% were made in those first 5 years. Those cars have been on the road longer, so there is a higher probability that they have been damaged in some way.
There were only 862 G2's produced -- average a little over 200 per year.
Interesting.
Martin
There were 6325 cars produced in the first 5 years out of the total count of 8949. This means that 70% were made in those first 5 years. Those cars have been on the road longer, so there is a higher probability that they have been damaged in some way.
There were only 862 G2's produced -- average a little over 200 per year.
Interesting.
Martin
