What is your best guess of how many remaining NSX are there in the US?
I'm guessing about 2,000. But I would like to hear your response.
I'm guessing about 2,000. But I would like to hear your response.
Best Guess of remaining NSX
- Thread starter NSXclear
- Start date
I think total production was about 19,000.
And more than 50% were shipped to the US.
just my guess:smile:
And more than 50% were shipped to the US.
just my guess:smile:
I am under the assumption that approximately 9,000 had been imported to the US. It would be hard to believe they have had an attrition rate of over 71%. I would venture a guess based on my original assumption that number of remaining NSXs is closer to 7,200.
Clearly; I am only guessing.
Does anyone have more definitive numbers?
Clearly; I am only guessing.
Does anyone have more definitive numbers?
What is your justification for only thinking 4,000 out of 9,000 remain on the road? Sure, some of them have been totalled, but over half? Scratches head..
Facts:
1. The number of NSXs sold in the United States is 8,907 (7,421 for '91-98, as noted in the FAQ, and 1,486 for '99-05, as noted by Ben).
2. The number of Integra Type Rs sold in the United States is 3,850 (based on a lookup of VINs similar to that performed by Ben).
3. In a lookup of Integra Type R VINs on Carfax, it was found that 74 percent have a clean title, 9 percent have a salvage/junk/flood title with a reconstructed/rebuilt status, and 17 percent have a salvage/junk/flood title without a reconstructed/rebuilt status. Thus 83 percent of them are still on the road, in one form or another.
Conclusions:
I would assume that the percentage of NSXs still on the road is significantly higher than that of Integra Type Rs - because the car is more expensive, accumulates fewer average miles per year, and is driven by older drivers with better safety records. If you assume that this difference in percentage loss of cars is sufficient to make up for the fact that the NSXs have been on the road about twice as long, on average, then 83 percent of NSXs, or 7,393 of them, are still on the road.
If you eliminate both of these assumptions, and you instead assume that loss of 17 percent of cars happening twice, because NSXs have been around, on average, about twice as long as ITRs, then 69 percent of NSXs, or 6,136 of them, are still on the road.
IMHO, I'd go with the 7,393 figure.
1. The number of NSXs sold in the United States is 8,907 (7,421 for '91-98, as noted in the FAQ, and 1,486 for '99-05, as noted by Ben).
2. The number of Integra Type Rs sold in the United States is 3,850 (based on a lookup of VINs similar to that performed by Ben).
3. In a lookup of Integra Type R VINs on Carfax, it was found that 74 percent have a clean title, 9 percent have a salvage/junk/flood title with a reconstructed/rebuilt status, and 17 percent have a salvage/junk/flood title without a reconstructed/rebuilt status. Thus 83 percent of them are still on the road, in one form or another.
Conclusions:
I would assume that the percentage of NSXs still on the road is significantly higher than that of Integra Type Rs - because the car is more expensive, accumulates fewer average miles per year, and is driven by older drivers with better safety records. If you assume that this difference in percentage loss of cars is sufficient to make up for the fact that the NSXs have been on the road about twice as long, on average, then 83 percent of NSXs, or 7,393 of them, are still on the road.
If you eliminate both of these assumptions, and you instead assume that loss of 17 percent of cars happening twice, because NSXs have been around, on average, about twice as long as ITRs, then 69 percent of NSXs, or 6,136 of them, are still on the road.
IMHO, I'd go with the 7,393 figure.
Although the NSX is driven less, there is a higher rate for total loss and salvage. It really doesn't take much damage for the NSX to be considered total loss. Plus it is much more costly to rebuild...thus less NSX on the road. In addition, the Type R isn't a 15 yr old car. Considering most of the NSX were produced in 1991-1993, that gives more time for something to happen to them.
The cost for cost for repairs and maintenence might also factor into this. There is a considerable number of NSX i know that are not operational and sitting in garages because of the high cost of repair: blown motor, bad transmission, etc.
Thanks for your insight and figures. They are very interesting numbers and give us a good base to work with.
But after getting better production numbers, my original guess might be a little low. Maybe closer to 4,000 remaining on the road.
Maybe we can come up with numbers by regions or cities and have a better estimate.
I'm guessing in San Diego, there is about 50 NSX max. But to be honest, I've probably only seen 25 of these in the last 2 yrs. I'm guessing the remaining 25 are sitting in garages.
The cost for cost for repairs and maintenence might also factor into this. There is a considerable number of NSX i know that are not operational and sitting in garages because of the high cost of repair: blown motor, bad transmission, etc.
Thanks for your insight and figures. They are very interesting numbers and give us a good base to work with.
But after getting better production numbers, my original guess might be a little low. Maybe closer to 4,000 remaining on the road.
Maybe we can come up with numbers by regions or cities and have a better estimate.
I'm guessing in San Diego, there is about 50 NSX max. But to be honest, I've probably only seen 25 of these in the last 2 yrs. I'm guessing the remaining 25 are sitting in garages.
Lucky me, I got them both. 98 CW ITR/7K miles and 03 Silverstone NSX/6K miles. :biggrin:
Hi
You have better memory than me, but have we talked about how many NSX'es in Europe are left here on Prime?
Is it fair to say that there are 7383 in the US and approx 1000 in Europe left?
My NSX are a exclusive car I know, but I had no idea that it was that exclusive.
Regards
- Joined
- 15 May 2004
- Messages
- 6,898
I can only speak for Switzerland (most sold in Europe).
I guess that there are about 90 % of the 262 NSX's sold are still alive including the ones that have been exported to Europe. 90 % is a very high number tough and includes the 'refurbished' cars that have been completely wrecked and still have bent axles.
262 cars sold
-30 nonrecoverable crashs
232
-40 recovered hard crashs but still bent axles, chassis so not worth it
192
-30 abused cars with mayor other problems
162 cars in good condition
-20 exported to Europe (one of them to martin :wink
. 142 cars in good or better condition
-80 cars in good condition (you still have to invest $8k to get it perfect)
62 in near perfect condition
This number seems quite high but I think it's not a bad guess.
Speaking for Europe: About 1000 cars have been sold. Guess 2/3 in good condition still alive?
There is only two in my city and the other only has 24k and its a 91 so I'm the only NSX anybody ever see's.
1373 sold in Europe..
( 9 in Sweden )And personally I think that more than 90% is still running..
Fore example: There is 38 NSXes in Sweden and there is not 1 that have been taken out of drive yet..
Nice analysis Ken.
That's probably the most accurate figure we're going to get. Based on the amount made I had always assumed around ~7,000 NSXs were in streetable condition in N America. This is consistent with my estimate, figuring maybe 100-200 cars or so have clean titles but are heavily modified/not street driven.
There have also been several that have moved to Canada, I would guess that the 100-200 number would be close. So I have to ask. How many are in North America?
I'm surprised at the number of clean title ITR's. How recently was that data put together?
Ski_Banker
Suspended
A while back, I did an analysis based on annual production. Assuming 10% attrition rate (wrecks, age/parting), the total current U.S. number came in around 3500 now if I'm not mistaken. 10% is a fair assumption (1 severe wreck every 10 years) over the vehicle's life. Makes sense too, since even though only 1000 02+ NSXs were produced for U.S., you see them about as often as 91-93s -- meaning many, many of those are no longer being driven for whatever reason.
I disagree. I see far more early NA1s than NA2s in SoCal.
Why would one assume a 10% attrition rate? What's the basis for that number? Is that an established formula?
I think it's a little much to assume that not only are 10% of all NSXs produced wrecked but also that every NSX gets wrecked every 10 years...3500 just seems very very low.
Ski_Banker
Suspended
It's quantitative. It's systematic. And it "makes sense" when compared to my general observations. It's also "my best guess" so take it or leave it.
BTW - Attrition rate is just that. A rate. In theory, there will still be a few left in a hundred years. Change the rate to 5% (very very low IMO since age/wear also puts NSXs out of commish) and the figure came out at about 6000 I think.
It's quantitative. It's systematic. And it "makes sense" when compared to my general observations. It's also "my best guess" so take it or leave it.
Not denying it's quantitative or systematic. Just wondering what the formulaic foundation is. If that foundation is your "best guess" I like Ken's numbers a lot better. If your numbers are based on anything such as an industry established variable or phenomenon I think we'd all like to know. :smile:
I know exactly what a rate is. But to pick 5%, 10%, whatever, seemingly out of the air seems capricious. How did you come to select the "rate"? What's that based on?
Don't forget, most NSXs are repaired once wrecked. There are likely just as many salvaged NSXs on the road as NSXs salvaged and not on the road. Salvage title means nothing in terms of whether the car is still running.
I also doubt few NSXs have simply given up the ghost and died. Many of those NSXs have their specific problems fixed (rebuilt engines, trannys, etc.) These cars can run for a very, very long time. It's only been 16 years.
- Joined
- 15 May 2004
- Messages
- 6,898
Ski-Banker's assumption is a little bit too high I think as far as the 10%-wrecked-rate is concerned. I would express it a little bit different and say that 1 out of 50 NSX's had an accident over 1 year, ergo 2%. Some accidents cause only minor damage like bent fenders. But there are others with bent chassis too. This is quite that what I've seen here in Switzerland. But even a bigger accident is not wrecked to total loss. Many of these cars get on the road again in more or less worse condition. These are the driving wrecks. :wink:
Among the 30-40 NSX's I've probably seen or heard of there are 3 complete wrecks but 6 driving wrecks and 1 with minor damage.
Ski_Banker
Suspended
My guesses from work were actually too conservative. The "precise" figures for each attrition rate, for total current U.S. NSXs is:
2% - 6933
4% - 5312
5% - 4655
6% - 4084
7% - 3587
10% - 2450
12% - 1916
15% - 1344
I still think my 10% assumption is about right over the last 16 years. It was probably lower to begin with and is higher now since mileage, age, younger drivers etc. all contribute to more wrecks and beaters now than in the early years. These cars get driven, and therefore wrecked, and due to expensive repairs, are often totaled/salvaged. 10% in my assumption would include beaten up NSXs, not just junkyard scrapped ones. A 2% attrition rate implies a 50 year life for the car. This is just math though so draw your own conclusions. :smile:
About 700 NSXs were sold in Canada. If you assume the same rate of attrition as that 7,393 figure above, 581 of them are still around.
Me too.
Last year.
I'm not sure how you could tell a NA1 from a NA2 by looking. A 2005 automatic NA1 looks just like a 2005 manual NA2, and a 1997 manual NA2 looks just like both a 1997 automatic NA1 and a 1996 manual NA1.
Incidentally, we have all the figures (per the sources above) for how many NSXs were NA2 (the six-speeds, all from '97-05) and NA1 (the five-speeds from '91-96 and the automatics from '91-05). Although I'm not sure why that matters.
All I can assume is that it's someone's guess, with absolutely no basis.
Furthermore, I should note that I'm very familiar with the NSX community (where the median age of owners is about 40) as well as the ITR community (where it's about 22). Anyone who thinks that the rate of attrition of NSXs is anywhere close to that of the ITR, let alone more (as some of those guesses imply) must be smoking some wacky stuff. That's why I'm sticking with that 7,393 estimate.
Salvage title with a reconstructed/rebuilt status means that the car is still running. Salvage title without it means that it's not.
Black tops. I said "early NA1s." :smile:
nsxtasy said:
Agreed.
nsxtasy said:
Very logical. I think you're original analysis based on the ITR was very accurate.
nsxtasy said:
I understand this but Ski Banker was, I thought, making a blanket statement suggesting all salvaged NSXs are off the road and wasn't using the hard data available regarding "salvaged/rebuilt" vs. "salvaged". I was actually attempting to bring to light the differences as Ski Banker had appeared to lump them together.
