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I make my living doing this, I work for a large national firm, trust me when I tell you, nobody knows anything!!!!  The only truth is the two certainties, death and taxes.  When you get the capital gains, take them, but don't be afraid to take your losses.  The big mistake (read on a post a few above yours) is to hold to break even. There are people who hold Worldcom and Enron stocks who will never break even.  There are no sure things!