As many of us sports fans know, Jeremy Lin as been in the news a lot lately for his out of nowhere, superb play. Much has been made of his performance in his first 10 career starts in comparison to past greats and also of his ethnicity. With tonight's game comes a true test. How will the New York Lin's do against Dwayne Wade's Miami Heat (Let's be honest, it is Wade's team)? Here's my thoughts and predictions.
It's already been determined that Lebron will guard Lin at times during the game but what about the rest of the game? I see Wade and Chalmers taking up the task for the rest of the game with Wade being the better defensive matchup. Lin is "big" for a point guard, listed at 6'3" (he's probably only 6'1") and 200lbs. This gives Lin a slight physical advantage over other PGs who guard him. While Lin isn't exactly fleet of foot and can't just blow by you, ala D. Rose, Lin makes up for it with his dexterity and using his body as leverage. Lin stays low to the ground and makes quick moves that don't telegraph. He also tends to lean into his defender while driving to the basket. This does a couple things. The first thing it does is it prompts his usually smaller defenders to give some push-back. This defensive push-back allows Lin to maintain balance while throwing his defenders off balance. It also gives him a feel for where his defender is leaning. I do notice Lin falls quite a bit. It's usually due to his defenders not being where he predicted and them not pushing back when he bodies up.
Second thing is it allows him to protect the ball. Lin also plays at multiple speeds, making it more difficult to guard him. Often times he will go fast into a pick-and-roll and then slow down to let his defender catch him, keeping the defender on his side or back. This maintains an advantage. These things are what allows Lin to rather freely move into the lane and either score for himself or set up his teammates.
Miami stops this in several ways. It starts with Wade and Lebron on defense. Both Wade (6'4" 220) and Lebron (6'8" 260) are bigger, stronger and more athletic than Lin and they're both great on-ball defenders. This negates the physical advantage Lin would have over, say, a Mario Chalmers. Wade and Lebron are quick enough to stay in front of Lin while being big enough to obstruct his vision a bit. Miami also has great team defense and I believe they'll do well in preventing Lin from getting to his sweet spot, the right elbow. Lin also doesn't drive much or finish with his left. I expect Miami to try and exploit that. Miami also love to run off missed shots and Lin isn't so good in transition defense.
So I'm picking Miami to win 108-97. Miami has better team defense and D'antoni's run and gun style plays right into Miami's hands. New York can win if they keep it close. Lebron and Bosh tend to disappear in crunch time and Lin has ice water in his veins. The other key match-up for New York is Amare vs. Bosh. If New York wins I say it's by less than 5 points.
I say Jeremy Lin goes for 20pts on less than 50% shooting with 9-12 assists and 8 turnovers.
So any basketball fans want to make any predictions???:smile:
It's already been determined that Lebron will guard Lin at times during the game but what about the rest of the game? I see Wade and Chalmers taking up the task for the rest of the game with Wade being the better defensive matchup. Lin is "big" for a point guard, listed at 6'3" (he's probably only 6'1") and 200lbs. This gives Lin a slight physical advantage over other PGs who guard him. While Lin isn't exactly fleet of foot and can't just blow by you, ala D. Rose, Lin makes up for it with his dexterity and using his body as leverage. Lin stays low to the ground and makes quick moves that don't telegraph. He also tends to lean into his defender while driving to the basket. This does a couple things. The first thing it does is it prompts his usually smaller defenders to give some push-back. This defensive push-back allows Lin to maintain balance while throwing his defenders off balance. It also gives him a feel for where his defender is leaning. I do notice Lin falls quite a bit. It's usually due to his defenders not being where he predicted and them not pushing back when he bodies up.
Second thing is it allows him to protect the ball. Lin also plays at multiple speeds, making it more difficult to guard him. Often times he will go fast into a pick-and-roll and then slow down to let his defender catch him, keeping the defender on his side or back. This maintains an advantage. These things are what allows Lin to rather freely move into the lane and either score for himself or set up his teammates.
Miami stops this in several ways. It starts with Wade and Lebron on defense. Both Wade (6'4" 220) and Lebron (6'8" 260) are bigger, stronger and more athletic than Lin and they're both great on-ball defenders. This negates the physical advantage Lin would have over, say, a Mario Chalmers. Wade and Lebron are quick enough to stay in front of Lin while being big enough to obstruct his vision a bit. Miami also has great team defense and I believe they'll do well in preventing Lin from getting to his sweet spot, the right elbow. Lin also doesn't drive much or finish with his left. I expect Miami to try and exploit that. Miami also love to run off missed shots and Lin isn't so good in transition defense.
So I'm picking Miami to win 108-97. Miami has better team defense and D'antoni's run and gun style plays right into Miami's hands. New York can win if they keep it close. Lebron and Bosh tend to disappear in crunch time and Lin has ice water in his veins. The other key match-up for New York is Amare vs. Bosh. If New York wins I say it's by less than 5 points.
I say Jeremy Lin goes for 20pts on less than 50% shooting with 9-12 assists and 8 turnovers.
So any basketball fans want to make any predictions???:smile:
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