Can one of our Canadian brethren explain what's going on up there?
By JEFF SALLOT
Tuesday, November 29, 2005 Posted at 4:42 PM EST
Globe and Mail Update
Canadians will elect a new Parliament Monday, Jan. 23.
What's already looking like a long and nasty winter campaign began officially Tuesday with Liberal Leader Paul Martin blaming the opposition parties for what he says is an unwanted distraction from the holidays and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper saying Canadians now have a chance to get rid of a corrupt government.
The day began with a formality. Mr. Martin advised Governor-General Michäelle Jean that his 17-month-old minority government had lost a confidence vote in the Commons Monday night.
She was ready, agreeing to dissolve the 38th Parliament and issue electoral writs.
The formalities complete, Mr. Martin emerged from Rideau Hall and immediately went on the offensive, blaming the three opposition parties for an election he claims Canadians don't want at this time.
"Ambition has overwhelmed common sense," Mr. Martin told reporters.
Instead of tending to public business, he said, the opposition has been plotting how to force an election. "It was their obsession and now we have it."
It will be a long campaign by modern standards — 56 days.
Mr. Martin said Liberals will pause their partisan political efforts during the holidays and suggested the serious campaigning will not begin until January.
"When Canadians sit down to sip hot chocolate the last thing they're going to want to do is to see a politician on the TV screen or at their door," Mr. Martin said.
Speaking a few minutes later on Parliament Hill, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper said voters need change because "a government paralyzed by scandal cannot attend to important business."
Referring to the sponsorships scandal in Quebec, Mr. Harper said voters will now have a chance "to hold the Liberals accountable for stealing your money, accountable for breaking your trust and failing to deliver on your priorities."
The Conservative leader said that the Liberals would run a negative campaign, "by spreading fear, by spreading lies" but in the end, he predicted, his party will win because "hope beats fear 90 per cent of the time."
Jack Layton, the NDP leader, told his first news conference of the campaign that the Conservatives have been "an ineffective opposition that doesn't get results for people."
Mr. Layton took credit for forcing the Liberals to amend their budget last spring to boost spending on social programs. "New Democrats really do get things done in Parliament. We now have a record to run on."
Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe, who only has to campaign in one province, said this doesn't mean he's a one-issue politician.
Everyone in Quebec knows that independence is the Bloc's goal, but the province's voters won't be fooled by Liberal scare tactics suggesting that the federal campaign is an independence referendum, Mr. Duceppe said.
The party will debate a full range of economic and policy issues, and if there is another minority Parliament, Mr. Duceppe said, the Bloc will "support what's good for Quebec and oppose what's not good for Quebec."
Going into the campaign, public opinion polls suggest the next Parliament may look a lot like the politically unstable one voters are saying good-bye to.
The Liberals have a slight edge over the Conservatives nationally, but not enough to win a majority, according to separate polls conducted for The Globe and Mail and CBC.
Pollsters have the Bloc Québécois dominating the political scene in Quebec, a province that is key for the Liberals if they hope to win a majority.
Once again, Ontario will be the main political battleground between the Liberals and Mr. Harper's Conservatives.
British Columbia could be the wild card province election night with Jack Layton's New Democrats drawing enough support to produce interesting three-way races, the pre-election polls suggest.
But strategists for all parties note this will be a particularly long campaign — eight weeks--and there is plenty of time for numbers to shift.
After losing the confidence vote in the House Monday night, Mr. Martin couldn't avoid an election. But he still controlled election timing. He might have set the date as early as Jan. 9.
But Liberal strategists think that most voters won't begin to focus on the election until after they comb New Year's confetti out of their hair. The strategists want the extra time to bring party electoral machinery to full throttle.
The Liberals will campaign emphasizing their management of the economy — times are good, they say — and they will try to depict Mr. Harper as an uncertain and thus unsettling figure.
The Conservatives will try to convince voters it is time for change, and the sponsorships scandal and other ethical issues, they say, make their point.
The NDP will say they are the only party that can hold a minority government to account and force action on socially progressive programs. New Democrats believe their influence on the Liberal budget in the last Parliament is evidence of their effectiveness.
The personal stakes in this election are particularly high for Mr. Harper and Mr. Martin. Another Liberal minority will rouse backroom talk about the need for a new leader. Ditto for Mr. Harper if he can't lead the Conservatives to gains in Ontario.
At dissolution there were two vacancies in the 308-seat House. The Liberals held 133 seats. The Conservatives had 98 and the Bloc held 53. There were 18 New Democrats and four independents.
Arshad said:Anyways, so they will be holding a new election on January 23rd. Given current polls, it's likely that the Liberals will be back in power again (35% liberals, 29% conservatives), but as a minority govt.
Arshad said:
The result of the new vote was a surprise to me when it seems that most Canadian politicians pride themselves on being a tasty alternative to the US. It now appears the new govt is openly supporting better relations with us down here.
Yeah I'm not a big harper fan. I think we SHOULD improve relations with the US, but I don't think we should do it by being a puppet and blindly following without questioning (as Harper has proposed).
For one thing, I think we should be DECREASING our military spending, not increasing it. Who the heck are we protecting ourselves from? Is denmark going to come get us because of that stupid piece of rock in the arctic ocean that we're so vigorously defending? An increase of a few billion dollars thrown at the military is going to make zero difference to our national defence, but WILL be money taken away from other things that I'd rather see those dollars go towards.
It was one thing to support Iraq BEFORE the US went in and didn't find weapons of mass destruction. To blindly follow the US now, with it's not so rosy record of human rights violations (see Human Rights Watch 2006 report) seems plain stupid. Needless to say, I didn't vote for this clown, and thank God he's in a minority govt so he cannot go around making decisions with impunity.
Sig said:Looks like the no-confidence strategy worked out after all for the once opposition party. The result of the new vote was a surprise to me when it seems that most Canadian politicians pride themselves on being a tasty alternative to the US. It now appears the new govt is openly supporting better relations with us down here.
No, we don't forget the facts, but we also understand that the 20% we get from the middle east is much more volitle than what we get from our friends to the north. And if you're implying that some kind of thanks are required, I'm not so sure they are. It's not like it's free. Last time I heard, funds actually changed hands for it.satan_srv said:Did you hear Bush's State of the Union. I love the part where he says he wants to cut Middle east oil dependency by 75%. I guess it's not convenient to point out that Mideast Crude imports make up less than 20% of their worldwide imports. Canada is the largest supplier of crude to the US, but they always seem to forget that.
KGP said:No, we don't forget the facts, but we also understand that the 20% we get from the middle east is much more volitle than what we get from our friends to the north. And if you're implying that some kind of thanks are required, I'm not so sure they are. It's not like it's free. Last time I heard, funds actually changed hands for it.
710 said:satan_srv (or others),
Do you have an idea what price oil would have to be to make the tar sands in Alberta viable?
And are they big, meaning how many years would the reserves last? I don’t know much about this, but I always wanted to find out.
I presume the 10.3% of US imports of oil from Canada is not yet from these tar fields, right?
Peter
Carguy! said:Your spending on your military is much lower than it would be if you weren't protected by the U.S. I do agree that Canada could cut their spending to zero dollars for the military simply because everyone knows that the U.S. would protect your country.
SPA_S2000 said:RBNSX - but you are looking at only today. It is dangerous to sculpt the future off of today's reality only.
Things change so quickly and if you're not at least maintaining a baseline, you have no time to react.
“According to Oil and Gas Journal, Canada had a reported 178.8 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in 2005, second only to Saudi Arabia. However, the bulk of these reserves (over 95%) are oil sands deposits in Canada. The inclusion of oil sands in official reserve estimates is not without controversy, because oil sands are much more difficult to extract and process than conventional oil.”RudeBoy_baby_NSX said:
RudeBoy_baby_NSX said:I do belive the U.S can take us over at anytime with its largest and one of the most powerful militaries in the world. Being Canadian I can't imagine what we would need to be protected from? I hate hearing from our U.S friends how we are being protected by the U.S, I'm not denying we are being protected. So you got to ask yourself this question... just what Arshad had already said... who exactly do you need to protect us from, and why? Humm... Maybe our oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, hydro, and how about our development of weapon technology etc just to mention a few things. So who is it that needs those things again? I mentioned this once before, the U.S needs Canada as much as Canada needs the U.S.