nsxtasy said:
I realize that they are lease residual values - the amount that you would need to pay at the end of the lease to own the car instead of turn it in. Do they generally set residual values less than market value - to give the buyer an incentive to keep the car rather than turn it back in at the end of the lease? And if so, why would they set it at a higher percentage (of the expected market value) for some cars than for others?
After leasing many cars in the last few years, I can answer this one. Some car companies set the residual value lower than the real value and to even things out, they raise the lease payments. This strategy causes most people to purchase the car at the end of the lease since it will be a good buy, and thus it means there will be less used cars on the market, which will cause the particular car to hold its value better.
BMW has been using this strategy for years. If you go to lease a 3-series, you will see the payment is much higher than most of its competitors. Meanwhile, you could go lease a Cadillac of the same MSRP for much less. This seems exactly the opposite of what would seem logical: Since the BMW holds its value better and the Cadillac depreciates more over the lease term, you would actually expect the Cadillac lease payments to be higher and the BMW to be lower. But BMW artificially inflates the prices, and the end result is a lower residual and therefore, fewer used cars on the market.
Of course, some would argue that if Caddilac tried this, their sales would suffer. I guess only a company with a top-notch product like BMW can get away with this.
Some car companies who are suffering low sales will actually do the opposite. They will lower the lease payments and raise the residual as an incentive to new car buyers. However, this strategy tends to backfire since they end up getting stuck "up-side-down" with these cars at the end of the term, and end up taking a loss when they have to auction them off.
About 10 years ago I leased a 3000GT with a MSRP of $36k for only $390/month. The residual was $17k, but after the 42 month term, the book value on the car was only $14k. Since the leases were so cheap, most people were turning in their cars and leasing a new one, which caused there to be too many 3-year-old 3000GT's on the market, so value suffered.
Residual values are all about marketing strategy and only partly reflect the car's actual projected value after the lease term.