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It an easy call to say that Android and Win 8 will triumph over iOS.  After all, the historical record says that MSFT eventually became the standard over the Macintosh, blah, blah...


But that was then and this is now. And I'm not convinced that history will repeat.  By now Android tablets were supposed to take over the iPad.  Didn't happen.


http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2401676,00.asp


And just like the Zune was supposed to kill the iPod - there's been really no early rush to Windows Phones.  These Win Phones are just not selling.


And now we're supposed to believe that Win 8 tablets, with their "Jack of all trades, master of none" design philosophy is supposed to be the latest iPad killer.  We'll see about that.  iPads are being sold to Windows users in very high numbers.  There's not much hesitation out there. Yeah, there's a few die-hard MSFT cheerleaders out there hoping for a Microsoft alternative to the iPad but for the most part, people aren't waiting, they are buying iPads. Win 8 will be different from iOS, to be sure, but it will it better enough to sway buyers from the de-facto popular choice of the iPad? My Doctor's office - has been PC based for years... Now there's maybe 2 PCs and the rest is all iPad.


And then there's a lot of rumblings coming from the PC user base that indicates they're just not comfortable with the new changes in Win 8.


So, we will see soon enough, but Microsoft has lately had many more failures and embarrassments lately than they've had successes. And it's going to take a lot more than a close-also-ran-near-iPad to compete today.  Any MSFT tablet that aims to dethrone the iPad will have to be radically better to gain traction and to stop the iPad juggernaut.  And frankly, I just don't see that happening.  At best a Win 8 pad will be "almost as good as an iPad".


Oh, and smartphones... Apple has 75% of the profit in that market with less than 10% of the market.  And while some would say that's a market share failure, I call it winning big time.  Let the rest of the losers offer 2-1 sales.


-Jim


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